Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

[RedToothBrush]

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

The EU have been blamed for every single thing thats gone wrong since...they have been blamed by our government and by organisations and the media

But why did this gain so much traction, when, as I said, 5 years ago a majority of people neither knew nor cared about the EU?

For the Westminster Governments it's been the best excuse going, and if we leave, it's one that they won't be able to use much longer.

But why did this gain so much traction, when, as I said, 5 years ago a majority of people neither knew nor cared about the EU

We did know....loads of people knew, it was in the mail constantly, i assume it was also in other papers....maybe in a similar amount

People complained in pubs, and in their homes when they were told they couldn’t do something they wanted to do

I certainly complained about those stupid mercury light bulbs

People are generally quite apathetic....but what could they do? If an organisation is telling you that you can’t do something because of ‘eu guidelines’ most people dont even check it...they just think ‘fucking eu’

And ...fuck knows why....people just didnt make the link in their heads that we were also the EU!

Second a referendum is offered its your chance to tell them what you really think of them

That, in my opinion, in one of the main fuckups of the governments remain campaign...they should have corrected the myths right then and there

Although to be fair it would have been named ‘project lie’ or something

There were a lot of EU regulations that came into force to do with building & electrical rules that the UK implemented & I think it really annoyed many people who were bought up to 'make do & mend' and get on with it. I think there was also resentment that some other EU countries didn't (appear)follow the rules, especially France.

I'm not saying all the above is true but it was very much a perception of many 'baby boomers'.

Cross posted with Rufus.

magimed

I agree completely with that

It was very much ‘we are the only ones obeying the rules ’ in the people i know of my parents generation

You said it much better magimed

And shorter!!

{But why did this gain so much traction, when, as I said, 5 years ago a majority of people neither knew nor cared about the EU?}

For many I suspect ignorance and lies.
Much of the work that stems from the EU goes unnoticed. The E symbol on your tin of beans (and in fact on most packaged goods) who knows what it means? Do people know it represents both the quality and safety of the contents and defines the 'accuracy' of the volume of contents (that 300 grammes as stated is 300 grammes plus or minus a defined percentage)?
Complacency that through EU membership the risk of dangerous goods is small, and that there are 'recalls' of faulty items across the EU so that grey imports are also covered.

I'm of that generation & was guilty of saying much the same myself. Back in the 1970's I did not want to be in the EU but came to realise it benefits & am desparate to remain.

Some of the people I know who voted leave have, like me, adult children and grandchildren who live France/Germany/Spain and it astounds me that they could vote leave.

{I certainly complained about those stupid mercury light bulbs }
But did you complain about your electricity bill falling as they are more efficient?

And another source of resentment is how well Germany has done, economically, post WWII. My parents, who both fought in the war, were very resentful of that & I think that attitude was passed on to the baby boomer generation.

{And ...fuck knows why....people just didnt make the link in their heads that we were also the EU! }

And that the UK was at the forefront of making these regulations in the first place.

{And another source of resentment is how well Germany has done, economically, post WWII. My parents, who both fought in the war, were very resentful of that & I think that attitude was passed on to the baby boomer generation.}
This is particularly galling as the UK had every opportunity to do as well as Germany since WW2. The allied totally destroyed German infrastructure so they had to rebuild from scratch (after clearing up the mess). Half the German population was 'displaced', around 30 Million were 'lost' around Germany and many parts of the world.
The UK used it's Marshal plan reconstruction money to retain the colonies.

And that the UK was at the forefront of making these regulations in the first place

Agree

ut did you complain about your electricity bill falling as they are more efficient

A) i cant see the bills as the lights arent bright enough

B) was thinking more of work ...which i should have said....we needed extra staff to sort the light bulbs out. Eu regulations apparently

Yes, there is a lot of suspicion on how Germany is doing so well - with the general idea being they are ripping us off because 'they are in charge'. I think the idea they work harder, have better education systems and are therefore more involved in politics and their communities doesn't compute with the avid "but WE won the WAR!" Beleavers.

A wee correction TisILeClerc

The UK used its Marshal plan reconstruction money in a futile attempt to retain the colonies.

I do think it shows that sometimes 'winning' isn't the best long term solution. Germany has become fastidious, productive and morally on the ball. UK has (to an extent) wallowed and allowed itself to get an inflated sense of self worth as a result of the war.

The new LED lights are really bright.

We have 5 street lamps that are LED and the rest are old fashioned sodium. Looking along the street you see this one section that is really lit up with bright pools of light.

I do agree that the older energy efficient lights weren't very good and took a while to warm up - and the LED ones are expensive.

#justsaying

the LED ones are expensive

not any more

Rufus
I agree about the lightbulbs to some extent. The low energy CFL bulbs need to be use in the 'right' places.
Interesting that there is a report by a French research group that are suggesting caution over LED lights which are generally excellent. As the light they emit is only over a relatively narrow 'colour band' (wavelength) it can mess up your eyes.

Regarding Germany, the fact it has/had plentiful supplies of good quality mineral wealth within Germany has been a great boost to them. The UK depleted it's stock partly being at the front of the major industrial age and it's resources are not as easy to obtain.
Access to the sea by the Ruhr and Rhine rivers would also be beneficial.

{ UK has (to an extent) wallowed and allowed itself to get an inflated sense of self worth as a result of the war.}
The UK was fortunate that 'only' the Channel Islands were occupied by Germany in the war. The 'experience' of being an occupied country is far worse than 'just' being bombed. The continual day to day danger when occupied, the risk of being imprisoned or executed almost at the whim of the occupiers is relentless.

Another thing good about Germany is the housing rental market. Renters have more secure tenancy in contrast to the precarious UK rental market.

How can an average working couple afford a house in the UK? Factor in childcare fees. (No, I don't eat avocado toast)

Red I only watched Years and Years because I'm a massive Doctor Who fan.

I have just received this from Best for Britain:

We've conducted the largest pre-election poll in England, Wales & Scotland.
Enter your postcode to view results for your region and see how you can take votes from Hard Brexit parties

www.bestforbritain.org/vote?utm_campaign=may18_poll_launch1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=b4b

I can't make head nor tail of that Best for Britain thing, woodpigeons. I don't get what you're supposed to do with the 'sliders' and it seems to be saying that the SNP is going to get 38% of the vote in Yorkshire & the Humber.

I did the poll for Remain Voter a few days ago, too, & they said they'd be emailing first thing today with local recommendations. Nothing has arrived.

Good job I know I'm voting LD anyway. Agree with whoever said that CUK should just withdraw if possible - they're literally doing nothing but potentially stopping LD & Greens from getting a seat / a seat each in various regions.

It was very much ‘we are the only ones obeying the rules ’ in the people i know of my parents generation

In some cases, we over implement the rules, i.e. we put a stricter interpretation on what they are.

I couldn't get the sliders to work Loon. And they're perpetuating the myth that's it's OK to vote for Labour as they're for a soft Brexit, when actually we all need to avoid Labour because they're a leave party.

There's too much contradictory information out there.

I'm still baffled as to where these 34% of voters supporting the Brexit Party are. There must be places where there's 80% BP support which is scary.

Although Scotland hasn't had Grammar schools (other than in name) for many years the school I went to had only just finished having a "grammar stream" which was a left over from the hostel days when kids wanting to take Higher had to come and live in the hostel and weekly board as the West coast schools didn't go past 16