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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

OP posts:
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NoWordForFluffy · 18/05/2019 22:58

None here, or where I'm from. The Wirral still has grammar schools though.

Doubletrouble99 · 18/05/2019 23:13

Being a 'toff' certainly isn't looked upon as a good thing where I'm from. No conservative I know would vote for JRM or Boris because they are toffs. I, nor anyone else I know want toffs to rule us or think they would be the best people in our society to do it.

thethethethethe · 19/05/2019 00:15

.

Motheroffourdragons · 19/05/2019 00:23

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

grannycake · 19/05/2019 06:47

no grammars in Wales. I was born in 1956 and didn't sit the 11+ so fully comprehensive since at least 1967

borntobequiet · 19/05/2019 07:33

I’ve worked in education in two grammar school areas and can testify as to their pernicious influence. The super selective in one area had less impact on surrounding secondaries educationally, and may have forced them to up their game (which they could, having a couple of high achieving sets in each year group) but was very socially divisive. The less selective grammars in another area (where I work now) are both socially and educationally divisive. Parents who would have been relaxed about GS entrance in the first area, and may not even have bothered with the 11+, make huge efforts to get their children in, as they know they will be educationally disadvantaged otherwise.

InMySpareTime · 19/05/2019 07:34

Grammars here, it's awful and divisive (I'm saying that as a parent of one at a Grammar school and one who went to a comp).

bellinisurge · 19/05/2019 07:39

I can only assume you think grammars somehow influenced things if you live in an area that has them. Ours doesn't. Their existence or absence was absolutely nothing to do with this being a big Leave area.
Most likely factors: general discontent and desire to stick it to someone; high proportion of immigrants from Indian subcontinent rather than E Europe (although there are some); easy solutions offered by Leave to fix big social problems.

ContinuityError · 19/05/2019 07:40

We moved from NE Scotland to the south a couple of years ago, and instantly ruled out any grammar school areas. Didn’t want to be anywhere near that sort of stuff.

Peregrina · 19/05/2019 08:17

Their existence or absence was absolutely nothing to do with this being a big Leave area.

I don't think we were. We were trying to think of reasons why, on the whole, baby boomers voted Leave. One poster said that perhaps it was education, with the old 11+ making a lot of people feel like failures from then on. I don't think it can be, but this might be where we get Gove's "we've had enough of experts from." i.e.a lot of people did OK for themselves in later years, but know that they were dismissed educationally as second best at age 11.

Feeling neglected and wanting to give two fingers to Cameron and Osborne was IMO one reason for people in the north to vote Leave. What about the smug Tory south - where the smug Tories I know couldn't have told you the first thing about the EU only five years ago, but are now totally against it? They tend to be Little Englanders, and are unlikely to suffer the worst effects of leaving without a deal.

I don't know, it will make a good topic for historical analysis 50 years hence.

Meanwhile
Tories trounced and Labour abandoned

For the Euro elections maybe, but remember that in 2014 UKIP got the biggest share of the vote and yet only a year later Cameron, despite the odds, got a small but working majority. Although maybe there will be a tipping point when both the two main parties collapse. In the long term I can't see the Brexit party achieving anything until it gets some policies and more representatives other than Farage.

Peregrina · 19/05/2019 08:21

As an aside, had there been some sort of PR system in operation in the Local elections either d'Hondt, or STV, in a lot of wards, the incumbent Tories would still have lost their seats. We had a lot of two member wards, and the LibDems (in our case) with two candidates, were picking up 1300 votes each and the Tories getting 400 ish. Back in 2011 before the coalition really got going the vote share was more like, 800, 800, 600, 600, so d'Hondt might have made a difference then, STV probably wouldn't.

magimedi · 19/05/2019 08:29

I wonder if some of the 'baby boomers' desire to leave dates back to the 60's when France vetoed the UK application to join the common market at least twice?

But the 'remain' percentage of the vote, in 1973 was 67%.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/05/2019 08:39

Latest from 3 different pollsters has BREX 31-34% for EP

Also CON 9-12%, so the 1922 are finally hammering the nails into May's political coffin

Britain Elects@britainelects

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 34% (+34)
LDEM: 17% (+10)
LAB: 15% (-10)
GRN: 11% (+3)
CON: 9% (-15)
CHUK: 4% (+4)
UKIP: 3% (-24)

via @YouGov, 8 - 17 May
Chgs. w/ 2014 result.
.....

BREX: 31% (+4)
LAB: 23% (-2)
LDEM: 16% (+2)
CON: 9% (-4)
GRN: 9% (-)
CHUK: 4% (-2)
UKIP: 2% (-1)

via @ComRes, 17 May
Chgs. w/ 9 May
.....

BREX: 34% (-)
LAB: 20% (-1)
LDEM: 15% (+3)
CON: 12% (+1)
CHUK: 3% (-)
GRN: 6% (-2)
UKIP: 2% (-2)

via @OpiniumResearch, 14 - 16 May
Chgs. w/ 8 May

BigChocFrenzy · 19/05/2019 08:43

The most useful thing ChUK could do for Remain is to stand down
Their 3-4 % could then go to a Remain party and produce more seats

NoWordForFluffy · 19/05/2019 08:45

Let's just hope voting intention doesn't translate into actually making the effort to get to the polling station. If UKIP polled that high pre-2014's EP election, then there is hope that it'll drop more than a few points actually on the day.

I'm pretty sure that 34% of people I know don't intend on voting that way (I hope!) so where are they all? Almost everyone I've actually discussed it with (it's a tiny sample, I don't get into the nitty gritty of it on a general basis!) has said they'll vote LD, even the Labour members.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/05/2019 08:48

The polled voting intention for BREX is actually higher than for other parties, including the Remain ones

Only hope is that none of the pollsters haven't been able to sample & weight accurately for a new party

BigChocFrenzy · 19/05/2019 08:49

This was the launch of the Tory Euro-election campaign

Bloody hell, if ever a photo showed miserable people expecting a massive kicking ....

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise
Peregrina · 19/05/2019 08:50

Back in 1975 the Daily Mail supported staying in the then EEC. Did this swing it then?

The funny thing I would say then, is that apart from holidays to Spain, and young people, students especially, spending the summers travelling, most people were much more inclined to stay at home. It was long before the era of cheap flights. And although we'd been the sick man of Europe and all that, there was still decent full time work around for a lot of people, housing wasn't stupidly expensive, and the benefits system wasn't so punitive and nasty.

Then along came Thatcher, and yes, a lot of people must have voted for her.

NoWordForFluffy · 19/05/2019 08:51

It's like they've rounded up a load of randoms from the street after after a shit incentive to give an hour of their time!

BestIsWest · 19/05/2019 09:08

DH was born in 56 in Wales and did sit the 11 plus. The last year to sit it in West Glamorgan was about 1971 I think.

merrymouse · 19/05/2019 09:13

Re: the next leader of the Tory Party - how will they choose somebody who will

1). Satisfy Brexiters who aren't prepared to make any kind of deal

and

2). Not lead to a Corbyn government in 3 years time?

I am no fan of Corbyn, but I'd certainly vote for him over e.g, Leadsom or Johnson. I know the Tories have all sorts of problems with May, but whoever wins is still going to have to make some kind of deal with the EU, which will no doubt be just as controversial as the WA, so whoever they choose it still seems like a poisoned chalice.

I'd say that to avoid a Corbyn government they need somebody who is more centrist - but on the other hand 'No dealers' will see that as a betrayal. How do they resolve this?

I know at least one Leaver who will vote for the Brexit Party, and his choices are largely driven by the belief that Brexit will have no adverse consequences, but he is terrified of a Corbyn government.

merrymouse · 19/05/2019 09:22

We were trying to think of reasons why, on the whole, baby boomers voted Leave.

I think the benefits of being in the EU are most obvious if you are still working or in education - the ability to travel easily, the freedom to export and import goods easily.

TheNorthWestPawsage · 19/05/2019 09:40

pmk

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 19/05/2019 09:46

We were trying to think of reasons why, on the whole, baby boomers voted Leave

They voted in 1973, since then the EU has got bigger, invited more countries and most importantly

The EU have been blamed for every single thing thats gone wrong since...they have been blamed by our government and by organisations and the media

So i think part of it is that they are correcting the ‘mistake’ they feel they made

1tisILeClerc · 19/05/2019 09:54

{EU are most obvious if you are still working or in education - the ability to travel easily, the freedom to export and import goods easily.}
Indeed, but the unseen elements of EU membership needed 'bigging up' or at least made known, such as high trading standards, clean (er) beaches and so on.
My biggest issue with the EP elections is that it will be seen as 'confirmation' of the UK wish to be either in or out. It is simply an (almost) irrelevant question. Of course totally pointless if/when the UK leaves but the choice of MEP is to do what precisely? Do people chose so that whoever is a MEP should be going to brussels to be as obnoxious and disruptive as possible, or to have MEPs who have the bit between their teeth and want to improve both the EU and the UK. with Tory and Labour camps having a mixture of both this vote is 'deciding' nothing.