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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

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BigChocFrenzy · 18/05/2019 17:06

BREX are #2 in Scotland ?
(Scottish poll has only 628 sample size, so possible error +/-6%, instead of the usual +/-3%)

CON+LAB=13% !

SNP 39%
BREX 20%
LD 13%
GRN 10%
CON 7%
LAB 6%

Patrick Heneghann@PJHenegha*

More extraordinary numbers in this morning @YouGov poll.

Look at Scotland.

@UKLabour on 6% in Scotland.
Labour are in 6th place in Scotland. 6th place!

SNP, BXT, LD, GREEN, TORY, LAB in that order

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise
BigChocFrenzy · 18/05/2019 17:11

If Boris reaches the last 2, he would easily beat any other contender in the party members poll.

Full YouGov tables for Tory members poll

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulusuploads/document/k0cbwax8xm/Resultss190516ConservativePartyMemberss1w.pdf

John Rentoul@JohnRentoul

YouGov poll of Tory members suggests Boris Johnson would be run closest by Dominic Raab (59-41%)

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise
NoWordForFluffy · 18/05/2019 17:14

I utterly despair of society right now. Has there always been this 'fuck everyone else' attitude or has it crept up recently? Or are people just thick as mince about the consequences of their actions / vote?

DGRossetti · 18/05/2019 17:18

.

woman19 · 18/05/2019 17:18

@BurgerKingUK

Dear people of Scotland.

We’re selling milkshakes all weekend.

Have fun.

Love BK

#justsaying

NoWordForFluffy · 18/05/2019 17:21

@woman19, I just commented on my friend's Facebook post sharing this story that there are other places to buy milkshakes. I imagine there may be a roaring trade at BK! 😂😂

BigChocFrenzy · 18/05/2019 17:22

Well Brexiters may think they are voing to fuck everyone else
That only works for the independently wealthy / those homeowners retired on good pensions

Many others have voted to fuck themselves
Without lube.

Very few people understand the complex systems & integration within a trading bloc that keep a modern industrialised country functioning

So when demagogues press the right nationalist / authoritarianism buttons and proclaim that Brexit is easy, many voters believe them

woman19 · 18/05/2019 17:23

I imagine there may be a roaring trade at BK
Righteous are the milk shake makers. Grin

NoWordForFluffy · 18/05/2019 17:25

I just don't get how it can be proven that it's not easy and they still believe it is though.

But, as I said a few threads ago: there's none so deaf as those who don't want to hear, so I suppose I pre-answered my question / incredulity at that point!

BigChocFrenzy · 18/05/2019 17:26

The predicted SNP vote alone is much higher than BREX+CON+LAB+UKIP
Then there are the Scottish Greens who are Remain too.

England & Wales going BREX
Scotland Remain
NI ?

Question in 2050 history exams:
"which PM was most responsible for the breakup of the old UK ? - Cameron / May / Johnson"

HesterThrale · 18/05/2019 17:26

woodpigeons yes we had access to free uni education in the 60s to 90s. But I believe something like only 10% of people went. Since 2000 the numbers going into higher ed has been more like 50%.
So in the generation in their 20s and 30s there must be a high level of graduates.
Let’s hope these people vote.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/05/2019 17:30

fluffy The "Backfire Effect" has now been established by research in the US:

http://www.skepdic.com/backfireeffect.html

The "backfire effect" is a term coined by Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler to describe how
some individuals when confronted with evidence that conflicts with their beliefs come to hold their original position even more strongly:
…
The more ideological and the more emotion-based a belief is, the more likely it is that contrary evidence will be ineffective

Littlespaces · 18/05/2019 17:39

woodpigeons

As I react quite fiercely to being blamed for this mess, I’d quite like to know what makes baby boomers the way they are.

I can understand why you feel that way. However it is true that the older generations were much more likely to vote Leave. Around my way everyone I know has elderly parents who voted Leave.

Reasons I have heard -

  • 'I hate the EU'
  • 'Sovereignty / taking back control
  • 'Immigration / taking jobs / taking resources
  • 'Stop sending money to EU / money for NHS'
  • 'Control of own laws'
  • 'Germany and France bossing us around'

None of them factored in all the positives about being in the EU after being fed a steady diet of negative press over the years.

borntobequiet · 18/05/2019 17:40

woodpigeons I must be about the same age as you and similarly am baffled as to why people in my generation voted Leave.
Then I remember that I was one of the alternative society. In fact I sort of dropped out and travelled, and only went to university in the 80s (with two small children in tow at half term). That was good because it put me in touch with people much younger than me. There are many people my age I don’t even think of as contemporaries - until I look in the mirror!

NoWordForFluffy · 18/05/2019 17:58

That's fascinating, BCF.

This bit struck me most as to the 'why' of it:

'Some think the backfire effect is due to a cognitive deficit: people view unfavorable information as being in agreement with their beliefs (Lebo and Cassino 2007). Nyhan and Reifler, however, interpret backfire effects "as a possible result of the process by which people counterargue preference-incongruent information and bolster their preexisting views." That seems like a roundabout way of saying that people dig in when confronted with evidence contrary to their beliefs, but it doesn't seem to explain why they do so. Another explanation involves communal reinforcement and the assumption that there is more information you don't have that supports your belief. If one knows that there is a community of believers who share your beliefs and one believes that there is probably information you don't have but which would outweigh the contrary information provided, rationalization becomes easier. It is possible that the rationalization process leads one to give more weight to reinforcement by the community of believers. How much play one's belief gets in the media, versus the play of contrary information may also contribute to the backfire effect. If messages supporting your belief are presented far more frequently in the media than messages contrary to your belief, or presented repeatedly by people you admire, the tendency might be to give those supportive messages even more weight than before.'

BigChocFrenzy · 18/05/2019 18:06

Ever tried arguing with a creationist, a trufer or an anti-vaxxer ?
Evidence usually won't change a belief that is based on emotion

Anyway, true believers now stick to a safe online echo chamber and rarely hear opposing views

prettybird · 18/05/2019 18:13

The "backfire" effect is why the discussions we have had previously on these threads about "re-framing" are so important.

It's about finding out what, if any, informtation let's not say facts would change someone's mind - in a way that would allow them to do so without losing face. Not saying it is easy though Sad

We touched on it again in the last thread, when we talked about flipping the argument, to say that Remain/staying in the EU is the brave choice. But it's working how to do that in a way that doesn't sound condescending. Smile

It's not about continuing to confront Leavers or Brexiters with more and more evidence about Faragit's shenanigans as they are really not interested and it just reinforces their view about an "establishment conspiracy" against him Confused

1tisILeClerc · 18/05/2019 18:13

From Guardian:
{Police ask McDonald's to halt milkshake sales during Farage rally }

Bring back Benny Hill's 'Ernie, the fastest milkman in the west'.

That would sort things out.

HesterThrale · 18/05/2019 18:15

I know NO older people who voted Leave. My very elderly parent, who’d always voted Tory, has given up with them in disgust and votes LD now.

I knew a middle-aged couple who voted out; I’m no longer in contact with them. It got a bit poisonous - he in particular took it SO seriously. No point trying to argue with him. In fact I never tried, but had to put up with hearing his vile views at gatherings. I discussed it with the others when he wasn’t there. I just don’t think it’s worth it with some people.

I don’t know why he’s so stridently Brexity though. (He’s even lived in another EU country.) But I think he’s aware of not having a degree, and says, ‘My opinion’s worth the same as anyone else's.’

EggAndButter · 18/05/2019 18:25

Place mat king

BJ as a prime minister gives me nightmares....

EggAndButter · 18/05/2019 18:29

BCG yes I’ve seen the backfire effect in action with my PIL.

Quite sad to see my MIL, who is normally a mild manner down to earth person, agreeing to a statement (eg when people vote in a referendum they rarely vite for what is on the ballot paper. It’s of t’en a vite of rejection, against the government or whatever...) and then backtracking furiously saying loud and clear she will NEVER change her mind on brexit. :(

Whisky2014 · 18/05/2019 18:29

I'm pretty sure my grandparents votes leave Angry

Peregrina · 18/05/2019 18:29

If there's a significant majority of votes for LD, SNP, Green, Plaid & Change over the turquoise party, it does dilute the mandate for a Hard Brexit. It also might give pause to a Tory or Labour impetus towards a GE.

The BBC will ignore it for one, being firmly in the Farage camp.
Labour and Tories will declare that it's a sign that people want to get on with them delivering Brexit.

NoWordForFluffy · 18/05/2019 18:39

We literally cannot win as even when we vote to reject Brexit it's taken as 'get on with Brexit'. 🤯

woman19 · 18/05/2019 18:55

why the discussions we have had previously on these threads about "re-framing" are so important

The more ideological and the more emotion-based a belief is, the more likely it is that contrary evidence will be ineffective

She's more Yorkshire than most Yorkshire people!' - How a Scarborough fisherman changed his mind about a Syrian refugee

BRITAIN TALKS: Syrian refugee Razan Alsous meets third-generation ­fisherman Bob Roberts - a committed Brexiteer who thinks ­immigration should be controlled

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/yorkshire-fisherman-syrian-refugee-talk-16091033

Fresh air, sharing skills and just talking to real people, in an unthreatening environment, can do wonders...............

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