Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

[RedToothBrush]

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

Pmk

Are Labour going to start agitating for a GE / calling a vote of no confidence in the government? Bearing in mind that Labour's apparent (depending on who you ask) preference was: 1. Sorting an agreement with May; 2. GE; and 3. PV, surely now that 1 has failed they're heading towards 2?

I noted that Corbyn referred to the failing or unstable (I don't recall the exact word) government in his letter calling the talks off. Was that sowing the seed?

So WA fails, Labour jump in with NC in government? I can't see it succeeding, but if that is how Corbyn wants to play it, then it has to be the next step for them.

The Tories will be out next election, so whatever damage Johnson or the next leader has in mind to do, will have to be done relatively swiftly, without tipping enough of his own MPs into going rogue with voting / resigning as previously threatened (it will be interesting to see how many stick by this, most likely empty, threat).

Interesting (and not in a good way) times ahead, methinks.

I can't imagine living in a world where you look at and listen to JRM or Boris and say "they are speaking about my life and my experience ". And then you listen to , say, Jess Phillips and say " she doesn't know what it's like to be me, she's a liar etc etc". What is it like to think like that?

PMQ (equality?)
Quite a long and disturbing piece about Northern Ireland in the Daily Fail this morning. I presume it's appearance now has significance as it is commenting that kneecapping is still ongoing which if you were aware of it isn't really current 'news'.
As Dontlick comments, the Pound took a fair jump (down) with the failure of the Corbyn talks with May. That will have made the ERG and others happy, a bit of a bonus for the upcoming holiday.
Business groups continuing to report gradual slide of business capability as the indecision erodes investment.

I expect were going to get through many, many more of these threads in the next few weeks, it feels very 'calm before massive storm' at the moment

Doesn't it just! It's quite surreal to think the election is Thursday given the relative lack of campaigning.

If Johnson or Rabb we can expect a political decline in the UK, to be fast and along similar lines to the US.

It's interesting to reflect back on the threads of the last few years.

In my opinion I think we have reached the point where the political vacuum that the result of the referendum created has been filled. The fight for control has largely been won, merely because the forces of remain did not understand what was happening. May's made two fatal mistakes 1) creating Liam Fox's department which made a declaration of intent to leave the customs union and 2) of saying 'no deal is better than a bad deal' and condemned herself and all of us in one short sentence. It killed all hope of compromise and I think everyones reaction to the 2016 Tory Party Conference was very justified. (I note here what passed Amber Rudd's lips, and how she is back in cabinet and I find it hard to see her make good on quitting the party if Johnson becomes PM because of what she was prepared to say back then).

So it's now a question of what is done with the power and control that the right have successfully taken back.

There is still no effective resistance to that in the UK, largely because Corbyn is a willing stooge. Going forward will be interesting as yesterdays YouGov EU poll put the LDs in second and in effect the official opposition to the forces of the Brexit Party. The LDs resemble the Democratic Party far more than Labour did. And the Brexit Party are most certainly the Republicans in everything but name. If that does in time transfer to Westminster voting, that's a noticeable step to the right. Ironically I think many of Corbyn's policies have a more broad popular appeal but the man has made Labour so repellant to many that they don't feel they can support him.

We could end up looking back at this, and see Momentum as a force that destroyed socialism in the UK which is quite the reverse of what we thought might be the case back in 2015 through to the height of 2017s Corbynmania.

We still have years and years to go before the baby boomer generation lose control of politics and because of their lack influence in politics, younger generations have grown accustomed to effectively 'following authority' and feeling they have no power to challenge government or express their own views in a manner that makes a difference. Or they think being in power is about telling others to suck it up rather than rule by consensus. That apathy and lack of expertise and experience makes us very vulnerable to all kinds authoritarianism. It's possible that even when a tipping point in demographics occurs there will not be the force and commitment to effect change for a considerable time afterwards.

I see a bleak future for my sons generation.

PMK scary times

I can't imagine living in a world where you look at and listen to JRM or Boris and say "they are speaking about my life and my experience ". And then you listen to , say, Jess Phillips and say " she doesn't know what it's like to be me, she's a liar etc etc". What is it like to think like that?

Bellinisurge, let me explain it to you.

You are not a misogynistic middle aged man who feels threatened by women because he is very much aware of his own inadequacies.

Step into that mindset for about 30 seconds and you'll under the hatred of Jess. She embodies everything that threatens them, right down to her 'common' accent. The only way she could be more repellant would be if she was an unmarried single mother.

'Years and Years' is beautifully written, and directed by the great Russel T Davies. It's got some good Manchunian jokes and some gorgeous gay male totty, (as well as the Armadeggon stuff.)

Spot on OP red. Yes, it looks terrible. 1933 terrible.

Nevertheless, it's a big night, hope you can watch and enjoy the Eurovision.

This interview with a Syriza Greek MEP candidate is refreshing. You can google translate it if interested.

He advocates culture (in its traditional sense) . ecology and education to fight fascism and inhumanity.

Couldn't happen here of course, but shines a light.

left.gr/news/ros-nteili-horis-politismo-paideia-kai-perivallon-i-zoi-mas-den-ehei-poiotita-kai-noima?fbclid=IwAR2dWkGEValQjXGUgBFEB2FYbMPIuIwladCx82WNA7HODB2hLKDkQMU231w

{The fight for control has largely been won, merely because the forces of remain did not understand what was happening}

The 'Remain' camp, at least at Westminster political level has been so woeful in it's attempts to actually remain, that it gives me the feeling that the UK was almost destined to depart. There are obviously some that are fully fired up, but it it is not a strong burning desire to be truly part of Europe and embrace the considerable challenges.

Industrious and Education who interact with the rest of Europe KNOW the benefits and problems and have been let down by the governments over the decades.
I am intrigued and gladdened that my DC studying in Europe, despite not knowing what they want to do ultimately, has plans to continue education in Europe rather than the UK.

Right now, it's about avoiding No Deal. We need to get sufficient support in the EU elections to counter the while Brexit narrative. I don't actually care who is in charge of the Tory debacle - they won't be able to do any better than May managed and the only option open them is a flouncy Crash Brexit. Which is a possibility, but they still need to get the damn divorce bill through Parliament or face an even worse drubbing than she had. Tories can forgive anything except incompetence.

At the end of the day, it's a minority government with a divided party. How many of the more reasonable Tories will stay for a hard Brexit? Or the DUP for that matter, if it cuts off NI?

{He advocates culture (in its traditional sense) . ecology and education to fight fascism and inhumanity.}

Comparing this to the likes of Farage, makes me so angry/sad that the UK has so many negative attitudes towards our friends in Europe.
At a meeting I was at yesterday I found it so touching that a guy commented that people welcome having 'foreign' neighbours.

{We need to get sufficient support in the EU elections to counter the while Brexit narrative.}
With the problem that taking part in the EP elections is only tangential to the issue at hand. Having to take part is essentially 'housekeeping' brought on by the delay in Brexiting having run into the pre defined EP election cycle.
The 'results' of the UK MEP choices do not correlate directly with the wish to remain or depart the EU.

Right now, it's about avoiding No Deal. We need to get sufficient support in the EU elections to counter the while Brexit narrative.
Thats not looking good right now.

I don't actually care who is in charge of the Tory debacle
You might not care but it's important and will affect the outcome. Some Torys are more Teflon than other Torys.

- they won't be able to do any better than May managed and the only option open them is a flouncy Crash Brexit.

They won't try and do any better than May. They will try and change the narrative instead to one of blame. A flouncy crash Brexit is now not only politically acceptable to those who vote Tory or Brexit Party, but politically desirable, thanks to May. They will aim to further move then Overton window to frame them as brave warriors against oppression, rather than make any effort to make a deal. Then if there is hardship they have 'proved' they were right all along about how mean and nasty the EU are.

Which is a possibility, but they still need to get the damn divorce bill through Parliament or face an even worse drubbing than she had.

You aren't paying attention. They have no intention of getting the divorce through.

Tories can forgive anything except incompetence.
Yesterday a survey came out of Tory Party Members opinions on leadership candidates. They gave the capable and hard working Rory Stewart only 27% for competence and gave the work shy bullshitter Johnson the highest score with 62%.

Its fundamentally not true that they won't forgive incompetence. They embrace it, because they are disaster capitalists who benefit from political incompetence and deliberate trashing of state institutions.

3 years, we have lost. If only those who could have made a difference had heeded the warnings.

Red, I don't fully agree with you that the baby boomer generation still have years and years to go before they lose control of politics. Farage and Johnson are both at the tail end of the baby boom, and probably don't consider themselves as baby boomers. We might well have years and years of them though - the generation that came of politcal age when Thatcher was in her heyday. Who I admit, are as greedy and selfish as the worst baby boomers. (Not that we are all like that, understand.) May and Corbyn though, I feel are pretty much finished politically.

Perhaps I am trying to console myself, but locally at least the political baton is passing to your generation - our District Council has now appointed someone who is either 40 (or might now be 41) to lead the Council, and quite a few younger people got elected.

Don't forget too, that Tory party membership is mostly the elderly - the party has little to offer the majority of the under 40s. Which might be why they like Boris Johnson, as though he were a rather stupid but lovable nephew.

On another subject, I was gratified to read today that Farage opines that there won't be an Independent Scotland in Europe. I think you've just lost yourself some votes there, chum.

Red, I don't fully agree with you that the baby boomer generation still have years and years to go before they lose control of politics. Farage and Johnson are both at the tail end of the baby boom, and probably don't consider themselves as baby boomers.

They rely on the boomer vote, which was my point. Not that they were boomers.

The figures for the 18 - 25 group are interesting in relation to Conservative Party and Brexit Party support in the EU elections too. Guess which party has a greater level of support in that age group.

And from what I've seen locally, many people who would step up, haven't because of the way they have been treated by the old guard. It's pretty appalling tbh.

Some one mentioned up thread/last thread about EU28 children's TV explaining EU.
Here's link to EU28's education dep.
europa.eu/learning-corner/home_en

That awful wee turqoise man was flummoxed by excellent BBC reporter in Merthyr when he as asked what brexit will do for Wales.

(Steve Bray has repeatedly interviewed MPs and politely asked them.
'How will brexit benefit me?')

only question to keep repeating as well as what the EU does now for us.
twitter.com/jonesarwyn/status/1128952415833796609

Well here's a Tory MP with a sense of humour at least

Tracy Couch @ tracy_couch
Hmmmm which kitchen pic should I use....

#fortheonenotthemany #instaovens
#hoodhasntworkedforeightyears
#northeclock

I think this was an announcement that she's running for leader BTW.

And no, I've never heard of her either.

Is there any Tory MP NOT standing???!

Matthew Parris on PM yesterday evening saying that Boris’ support in Conservative party leadership bid probably not as much as is thought. Some small comfort in that, perhaps.

I disagree with the idea that BoJo has promoted a ‘clever posh boy’ persona. It’s more of an ‘eccentric posh buffoon’ in my opinion. And that might make him less acceptable as a PM to the general public.

It doesn’t matter, we’re fucked anyway. And because my fear of living in a foreign country where I don’t speak the language has overcome my worries about the UK after Brexit, I’ve condemned my family to being fucked along with everyone else

Wasn't Tracy Couch one who resigned from a junior ministerial post? I forget why, but it was good to see that there were still Tories with principles.

Back to Farage though - is it my imagination, or is he mostly making his appearances in what were once the Labour heartlands, and not spending too much time in the smug Tory south east, where the Brexit vote really is? Do Tories think that Johnson would be a good to set against Farage - both men have egos the size of the solar system. Johnson does at least have experience of both Local and National Government, even though he's made a mess of both.

{And because my fear of living in a foreign country where I don’t speak the language has overcome my worries about the UK after Brexit, I’ve condemned my family to being fucked along with everyone else}

Be brave!!
Most of the rest of Europe hasn't received the memo from Westminster saying they are and should be horrible.
Obviously there will be some pockets of 'tension' but with a positive approach most things are possible.

“ I have yet to meet anyone who thinks he would be anything but a disaster.”

My mum likes him. She has had chemotherapy and is brain-damaged from radiotherapy, so we’ll let her off.

PMK.

I've just had an election leaflet through the door from the English Democrats. I'd never seen one of theirs before. I feel sullied. Please tell me nobody votes for them.