Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

[RedToothBrush]

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

If Boris becomes prime minister - either anointed by the other mps or voted for by all 12 of their still living members - then it is time for mass civil disobedience. Not disorder - not rioting and violence - but strikes and doing mass sit ins in city centres.

Sadly, I think that ship sailed years ago, pretzels

Austrian vice-chancellor resigns over secret video footage

Far-right Strache appears to offer public contracts in return for campaign help

www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/18/austrian-government-in-crisis-over-secret-strache-footage

Leave.EU founder confirms he funded Nigel Farage in year after referendum

A spokesman for the European Parliament said that MEPs have to declare any spending linked to political activity that is paid for by third parties

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48315552

Could these stories be linked?

Anyone going to a Eurovision party tonight... a good chance to remind people to vote next week. And to remind their young ones (who in my experience can be a bit apathetic) to vote. Young folk can be inspired to vote Green.

I got together with friends this week and we (unusually) talked about the EU elections/ Tory leadership. They were surprisingly interested. Some were unaware when I mentioned how well faragit is doing; I think that'll spur them on to vote. Also motivating them is their horror at Boris's chances; I think they're conflating the two ideas. It's all connected.

Even if the Remain vote is split, the Tories would surely note if the Remain total is more than for hard Brexit?

Remainvoter.com are leaving it late to give tactical advice, aren't they?

We just need to get the vote out.

If Cameron's biography is due out in September but the Conservative indulgence of a leadership campaign is during the summer - what do you think the odds of sections of it being leaked early?

Especially those parts of it relating to Gove and BoJo

I am not persuaded that by having many vote for assorted 'remain' parties that it would be a good enough indication that the UK wants to remain. To get 'remain' over the line I would have thought that getting all to vote LibDem, even though far from ideal for many would be better than having a shower of Greens and independents who will only dilute the numbers.
As it stands the UK government of any flavours is buggered and both Tory and Labour are likely to take the UK to 'undesirable places'.
Save protests, sit ins etc for after LibDem get in.
Just a thought, but I know now't.
I have some faith in the EU wanting to help the UK if possible and as such would do so to reassess the relationship.
Strong 'hints' that many in the UK want to remain don't work for Tory or Labour, the support needs to come from the ballot box.

Is there any way to find out what remainvoter.com are advising without giving up an email address? Also, I am increasingly wary of groups trying to sway voting behaviour.

The mask slips https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1129519677590462464

Faragit claiming that hundreds of thousands of pounds of donations are a purely personal matter and nothing to do with politics

I gave fake details @boatyardblues . Also cynical and suspicious.

leclerc I agree about the desirability of getting all Remainers to vote for the same party, but we are where we are....

If there's a significant majority of votes for LD, SNP, Green, Plaid & Change over the turquoise party, it does dilute the mandate for a Hard Brexit. It also might give pause to a Tory or Labour impetus towards a GE.

There's a rocky couple of years ahead. We can't predict where we'll be. There are many factors which could change the flow: who takes over from Vince Cable, whether the EU give a further extension, how many more businesses pull out etc.

But, primarily what happens in the two main parties. Seismic change there is needed and overdue. It feels like Tory and Labour alike are hanging together as parties rather dishonestly.

And will people get fed up of waiting for change and the end of austerity? Apparently the Government are holding many billions back for Brexit-related costs, so initiatives in all departments are on hold. This stasis has already gone on for too long.

I sincerely hope that on 31 October the UK will either be 'in' or 'out'.
It is starting to get very dangerous for the UK to damage the EU which of course would delight Putin and Trump.
If the UK won't decide 'voluntarily' then it needs pushing.
There are of course 'knobheads' who say 'great, we will smash up the EU' but like Samson and Delilah, it would bring the temple down on everyone and the UK would be included in the rubble.
If you are driving up a motorway, would you sit your toddler in the driving seat and let them get on with it on their own while you do something else?
Remember the EP elections are only tangential to Brexit so whatever the results may be they will be 'interpreted' and will be spun, probably towards Brexiting.

Thanks red

And no, I've never heard of her either.

I’m sure you have - Tracey Crouch was the Tory minister for Sport that resigned when the government wouldn’t push through the promised ban on fixed odds gambling machines.

Ta red

I've been busy wallowing for wks (picking up a bit now but it's shakey) and thought nothing much would be happening brexit wise...other than the talks would fail between May and Corb. Checkeroo.

I wasn't expecting the wanker brexit party to be polling so high. And I have no idea how that happened??? People are strange.

Boris Johnson?? Really? REALLY? He polls high for competence? People are strange.

Glad people are realising no deal still exists - it even got a mention on last eve's itv news. I spoke to medical specialists to politic students after the last extension they all said it was off the table as if no deal wasn't the fucking table.

Anyway! Going to try to be more on it because of the EU elections...think I'm voting lib dems but I'm not 100% concrete. Can't see myself voting change UK as I don't think they will do well and I really don't like them. (Obvs I would have been torn if a MN Westminster had made it through locally!)

Hope everyone here is holding up ok

PMK

HazardGhost
I don't think 'technically' anything has really changed since Theresa 'provisionally' signed the WA in early December. The basic 3 'options' are open, Revoke, Leave with the WA and a transition period, or leave with the WA and no transition period.
The EU won't start any negotiations if there is a 'no deal' until the WA is signed, so if it is not signed on 31 October there could be a period of total 'limbo' where the EU waits for some crawling on knees by the UK.

Of course the UK is simply playing at being a wasp in a jamjar gradually whipping itself into a lather.

As Parliament forced May away from a no-deal last time, i don't see how a BJ or Raab could force through a no-deal.
The Parliamentary numbers for a no-deal are not there, just as they are not for any other out come.

I suspect that sooner or later we will get another referendum, not under May of course, she seems to have some form of long term Psychosis.
Jeez yesterday she even admitted a new vote would reverse brexit, so we can't have one!!!
A new leader may well be able to form new policy and have another vote?

Another Day and Another Map from Election Maps....

Election Maps UK
‏ @ElectionMapsUK

European Parliament Projection:

BXP: 28 (+28)
LAB: 16 (-4)
CON: 10 (-9)
LDM: 9 (+8)
GRN: 3 (=)
SNP: 3 (+1)
PLC: 1 (=)
SFN: 1 (=)
DUP: 1 (=)
ALL: 1 (+1)
UUP: 0 (-1)
UKIP: 0 (-24)

Based on recent opinion polls, with minor weighting.

"i don't see how a BJ or Raab could force through a no-deal."

They don't have to.
No Deal is the default.

There is too much complacency that No Deal won't happen, but atm ND is a serious possibility,
maybe the most likely outcome, because this political deadlock / vaccuum is too unstable to persist for much longer

Big difference by October will be that we'll likely have a PM who wants No Deal, or at least can't back down from it
May didn't want No Deal, so she cooperated fully in backing away from it and asking for an extension

To stop No Deal, the HoC have to force the govt to do something else
Last time, this was - by a narrow vote - to ask for an extension.

There are no signs the HoC is more likely to vote a PV or Revoke - especially if the BREX party wins most EP seats.
So it looks like Remainers & soft Brexiter will attempt to force another extension, to gain yet more time to avoid a decision.

In October, we don't know:

• if the HoC will vote for an extension

• if the new PM will genuinely ask for it, as May did, or instead threaten to wreck the EU from inside

• If the EU are still prepared to take the risk, or if just one member has run out of patience - only 1 veto needed.
  Remember, 1 November is when the new Commission starts, when the real business of the new EP starts
  The 31 October date wasn't just a compromise between Macron and Merkel; there were reasons for the date

A mostly turquoise map of England & Wales there, red
I expect the Beeb and others will be showing that endlessly, if the EP results are as predicted

Dreadful results for CON+ LAB would make it even more difficult for their MPs to pluck up courage and organise against the No Deal that Farage and nearly half of Tory MPs are demanding

I still think they'll be another Joanna Cherry-style amendment if we're heading towards no deal which did include revoke if the only other choice is no deal, i.e. an extension is refused.

We currently have no idea what is going through the MPs' minds as we've not had any substantive Brexit business since we were given the extension.

I wouldn't bet against MPs actually being MORE vociferous about no deal than they were before as their frustrations with the party leaders grow.

And as they took control of Parliament before, they can do it again.

I'm not minded to write off the sane MPs just yet, even if others are.

There'll, not they'll. Illiterate phone!

{or if just one member has run out of patience - only 1 veto needed.}

Mr Macron is getting pretty close to the veto option and depending how things go in France in the next couple of months the likelihood of veto may increase.
I think the Dutch are getting pretty pissed off too.

{Remainers & soft Brexiter will attempt to force another extension, to gain yet more time to avoid a decision.}
They have largely made up their minds but have no clue how to achieve it.

Gods, @RedToothBrush. If you are right (and you have been so far), I had better get back to stockpiling. :-(

I seriously thought there would be some sanity left in the Tories. But if the polling is as you said for Boris...

I’m a baby boomer and so is DH. So are many of the people we are friendly with.
We don’t know any of them who voted Tory. Nor do we know, that is are friendly with, anyone who voted leave.
We don’t know anyone like BoJo or Rees Mogg though so maybe they, coming from ‘old money’, have more to lose.
Our parents voted Tory and we despised them for it; if anything we are ageing hippies with a bit of goth thrown in. In the 60s in London I called myself an anarchist but mostly because I thought it was cool.
As I react quite fiercely to being blamed for this mess, I’d quite like to know what makes baby boomers the way they are.
DH and I have been talking about it and can’t come to any conclusions.
Is it money ? Fear of losing it ?
Lack of education ? Unlikely as our generation had amazing opportunities for free education and anyway they need education to earn wages to support their nice middle class lives.
Fear of the other.NIMBY. Quite likely but why as they, as a generation had and still do, many opportunities to travel and experience other cultures.
Anything else that we can’t think of ?
Answers on a postcard please.