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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

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Violetparis · 22/05/2019 09:04

ComRes latest polling have BP 32%, Lab 22%, LD 14%, Con 12%, Grn 7%, Cuk 5%, UKIP 3%. Quite different to YouGov, wonder which one will be more accurate, I fear it's the YouGov one.

1tisILeClerc · 22/05/2019 09:06

RTB
{No we'd become Trump's pawn and foothold in Europe.}
I am looking at things from a European point and although many in Europe want USA trade I feel there is more resistance / distance than in the UK. Although not widespread, the French are pretty wary of the USA.

borntobequiet · 22/05/2019 09:09

Dear me, BBC reaping what it has sown. That woman with her phone calling an MP a traitor is chilling.
David TC Davies not someone I agree with on many things (understatement) but seems honest and consistent, and is a supporter of women’s rights.

CrunchyCarrot · 22/05/2019 09:10

Farage vs Vince Cable, due to start shortly.

Thanks borntobequiet for the headsup. Smile

woman19 · 22/05/2019 09:11

the French are pretty wary of the USA
There is a well established cultural and political tradition in France of resisting US/english imperialism. For example resistance to over use of american/english language tradition.

borntobequiet · 22/05/2019 09:16

As an aside - why can’t we have him (or someone like him) here
Fox News, but don’t worry!
m.youtube.com/watch?v=p97xg-keEKg

PigeonofDoom · 22/05/2019 09:17

I don’t think you can equate trump with Farage in this situation. Trump is still there because the Republican Party want him to be. Without the backing of a large, established and powerful party his situation would be very different. Farage would be in Parliament with a brand new party and we have seen with UKIP that, whilst he makes a great figurehead, he is not a good party leader or organiser. He is basically a bag of gas focused on one issue and once brexit is done, what is there?

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 09:19

The Davis video is telling.

He is a pretty hard Brexiteer.

But that doesn't matter. He's establishment. Thus off with his head French style.

It doesn't matter Tory or Labour MPs do, it won't be enough for some of these people.

They are looking for something unachievable and that's actively dangerous.

Where that leads scares me.

I have that moment the day after the ref on my mind again and the feeling of how far we might slip into fascism and how far things will be purged and who that will affect.

The educated and the Liberal are dangerous folk who need to be controlled.

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jasjas1973 · 22/05/2019 09:24

Davis is a brexitier but because he supported the WA is is a traitor?

He is reaping what he has sown.

But i fear we are all going to end up in this mess, it is being played out across europe.

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 09:28

Pigeon, the US system has the impeachment system so the president can be removed.

The UK has no equivalent. Just the Lords.

This means Farage - if he has a majority - has the power to try and abolish the Lords. If he manages that (and there is a fair amount of popular support for the idea from both the left and right because no fucker understands the constitutional role of the Lords to limit the power of the Commons) the he's free to do almost anything he likes as long as he doesn't break the law, which he will have full control of if his MPs stay loyal to him.

That gives him free reign to do what he likes.

He can do as trump has and totally gut the civil service. He can repeal rights. He can politicise the legal system and install judges he likes.

For the same reason republicans won't challenge trump, Brexit party MPs won't challenge Farage.

Our constitution is exceptionally weak to an authoritarian leader.

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ClarkeMurphy · 22/05/2019 09:37

This is a single issue vote in the eyes of most people, a general election is very different.

I think this cannot be stated strongly enough. The only thing I care about when making my choice for tomorrow is the brexit stance - because if we don't Remain then there is literally no point in the election. In the local elections and in a general election I'd have to take a far more nuanced position because there are a huge number of other things which are as important (to me) as brexit.

On a separate note, DBro yesterday said "just imagine us sitting here in 30 years time explaining to the kids about the time we almost left the EU - it'll seem unbelievable". He's a bit more hopeful than me!

Littlespaces · 22/05/2019 09:49

I have that moment the day after the ref on my mind again and the feeling of how far we might slip into fascism and how far things will be purged and who that will affect.

Interesting, as I've seen a couple of posts saying that those with any education should be purged.

Peregrina · 22/05/2019 09:55

This was not David Davis, he of the chlorinated chicken, but the Welsh MP, just in case any one is confused.

Going back to Farage - although violence shouldn't be condoned, all the milkshake has done has made him look a fool, and need to get his suit cleaned. His attacker didn't kill him as Jo Cox's did, but remember we have to rejoice because Farage's result was achieved 'without a shot being fired'.

1tisILeClerc · 22/05/2019 09:55

{Interesting, as I've seen a couple of posts saying that those with any education should be purged.}

And look what happened in Uganda, Zimbabwe and many other countries.

Peregrina · 22/05/2019 09:57

Or was it Fox of the chlorinated chicken, and Davis was the Brexit secretary who wasn't? Either way, this person is neither of them.

HesterThrale · 22/05/2019 09:59

I just can’t watch the Farage Cable debate. He’s making me seethe.

People like being rebels. It makes them feel powerful to kick against the system, the establishment. Look at that woman attacking MP Davies: she didn’t really know what she was talking about. Just wanted to have a go. Full of sound bites. Thinks she’s got the backup of many others behind her.

If Farage the rebel got into power (which I don’t believe would happen) he’d become the establishment and quickly fail on many fronts. People would start turning against him. He couldn’t sustain it.

Look at when he led Ukip. They won 23 EU seats in 2014; now they’ve ended up with 3, I believe, after many resignations and defections. (It was down to about 7 even before the Brexit Party started, iirc.) He couldn’t keep it together. He’s all hot air and indignant resentment. That’s ok when you’re the underdog, but not when you’re in power. It’d quickly turn against him.

1tisILeClerc · 22/05/2019 10:00

{ but remember we have to rejoice because Farage's result was achieved 'without a shot being fired'.}

Maybe, but how many will die if he were to be elected, as a result of his total incompetence in 'real world' planning?
At this point we should all be praying that, like in the USA, the government 'orders' are moderated by civil servants who understand how the UK really works and have the interests of ordinary citizens in mind. Maybe DWP excepted.

CrunchyCarrot · 22/05/2019 10:01

Vince Cable made a mistake, I feel, when he commented to Farage re the milkshake incident "Don't you think you're being a bit precious, pressing charges?"

merrymouse · 22/05/2019 10:01

I almost want Boris to become PM just to see how he deals with this. He won’t be able to deliver the Brexit that has been promised because it doesn’t exist - even ‘No Deal’ will be followed by a struggle to negotiate a compromise that inevitably looks something like the WA.

Part of me wants to see somebody who was at the centre of the Brexit campaign try to sort it out.

Motheroffourdragons · 22/05/2019 10:04

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

borntobequiet · 22/05/2019 10:05

Pete Buttigiege part 2
m.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3sr0RtIfgI

BigChocFrenzy · 22/05/2019 10:11

The Tory party should fear BREX party far more than they fear Labour:

becausr BREX could replace them as the party of the right; Labour will never do that

1tisILeClerc · 22/05/2019 10:13

Boris is the 'perfect' candidate as his stance is as consistent as Brexit.
Simultaneously promising everything but nothing to everybody but nobody.

DGRossetti · 22/05/2019 10:13

I don't think it's in Corbyns gift to help her anymore. He simply cannot guarantee delivering the votes. There are a lot of Labour MPs that will not support anything which doesn't have a second referendum baked in from the off.

It's borderline fraud for May to pretend to offer the HoC "a vote on a second referendum" as a way to entice Labour MPs ... vaguely reminds me of the Great British Tradition of shops trying to palm customers off with vouchers instead of cash for a refund.

Peregrina · 22/05/2019 10:16

Maybe DWP excepted.

Except the Home Office too.

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