Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
26
LonelyTiredandLow · 22/05/2019 07:42

The type of story that would usually have been reported with a heavy blame on EU is now being told as a win for Tories [[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/22/england-plastic-straws-ban banning plastic straws and cotton buds] - how times have changed! Still, sure BP or Ukip will pick it apart as lack of freedom of choice or similar.

borntobequiet · 22/05/2019 07:43

Farage as PM would at least expose his and his party’s incompetence and venality. Would our political system be robust enough to chew him up and spit him out? That doesn’t seem to be working well in the US re Trump and their system I think is more resilient than ours. The UK state and (unwritten) constitution is like a rotten, hollowed out tree waiting for the high winds that will topple it.
WRT polls, I wonder if they are properly capturing the nuance of intended voting? There seems to be a big youth push against Brexit, how are they able to include younger voters adequately?

LonelyTiredandLow · 22/05/2019 07:44

Gah, link fail ban on plastic straws and ear buds.

Only plus to NF being PM is he would have nowhere to hide. No excuses. However the country would be in chaos quickly and I imagine a lot of people would flee.

Tanith · 22/05/2019 07:45

Meanwhile, in Real Britain, another damning report on poverty from the UN:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-48354692

1tisILeClerc · 22/05/2019 07:51

www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/22/indonesia-riots-protesters-clash-with-security-forces-over-election-result

While I am not condoning this in any shape or form, somehow the UK needs to wake up and start getting a grip.
There is a sense that nothing 'really bad' will actually happen, except it already is but in dribs and drabs around the UK. Extra violence in NI, increasing attacks on the streets of many cities, poverty spreading, services cut and most weird of all, significant numbers listening to politicians that are lying repeatedly. It is as though the UK wants to give up. WHY are people happy to listen to the crap that so many politicians are spouting and just accept it? Is it that in general life in the UK has been too easy and no one accepts that it can fail?

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 07:52

Ask the Greens/SNP. Our FPTP doesn't translate popular support into seats.

The UKIP vote was different to a lot of other parties. They didn't get seats because it was spread pretty evenly throughout the country. Unlike other parties where it tends to be more concentrated.

UKIP were never able to win seats because they couldn't break the ceiling in any seat.

How 37% of the popular vote represents breakthrough level.

It suggests that, if true, the Conservative Party can collapse. And psychologically that makes some votes more likely to vote for thevBrexit Party at a GE because they have a realistic chance of winning and getting rid of a Labour / Conservative long term seat.

It's an 'all bets are off' situation in which an En Marche style political tidal wave is not only possible but a realistic possibility.

If there is 37% of the popular vote, Farage could win a lot of seats.

It's said that the threshold for potential revolution is around the 30% mark. At 37% that's punching well above it.

Farage believes he can be PM now.

I can not think of anything more terrible. As for 'well the EU can ignore him if he becomes PM'. Really? Far from it.

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 22/05/2019 07:55

Speaking of apathy, a significant increase in flouride in drinking water is one way to 'subdue' a population. Good teeth but your brain turns to mush.

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 07:55

Only plus to NF being PM is he would have nowhere to hide. No excuses. However the country would be in chaos quickly and I imagine a lot of people would flee.

You mean like Trump?

How is that one working out?

Elected judges and abolition of the Lords with a Brexit Party majority would be easy. Then there'd be no checks and balances on his power.

He's already going full on trump banning c4 news from Brexit party rallies.

He could become a dictator very quickly indeed.

OP posts:
TheElementsSong · 22/05/2019 07:59

Assuming those polls are accurate, I'm saddened, and not because it's the Brexit party per se.

I'm saddened because it shows that nearly 40% of my fellow citizens, having seen everything that's happened over the past 3 years - the rise of the far right, the political and economic chaos, the appalling treatment of people simply for carrying a foreign taint - think it is all marvellous and in fact want MORE of this shit. And I'm saddened that nearly 40% of my fellow citizens are so disconnected from reality that they can be hoodwinked (again!) voting for a non-party with non-members and non-policies and non-facts, and that again somehow (without anybody including themselves needing to do any more than put that X in that box on polling day) this will lead to their twisted utopia.

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 07:59

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak
Things have got worse for May overnight - One MP who is putting a letter in hope of speeding up PM’s exit says May had stopped meeting backbenches + stopped listening - ‘she’s a genius when it comes to making matters worse’

There is a new push to oust PM asap so she doesn’t have chance to put the bill forward being led by Nigel Evans - tory backbench cttee meeting today - one tells me ‘it’s Sunday’ - day when euro results come thro that it’s over

But.... No 10 has been totally determined to put this bill and go on so at least she has that chance to try what they see as the right thing before she goes - they point out there is no remote agreement in parliament on what to do instead

PM has written to Corbyn this morning essentially saying, I m offering most of what you asked for, what’s your problem? In rather more polite terms

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 22/05/2019 08:00

{As for 'well the EU can ignore him if he becomes PM'. Really? Far from it.}
I was meaning from the point where the UK is no longer in the EU and as a third country can be treated at arms length. He could be given a polite brush off. While it would take years for the EU to reconfigure trade dealings to completely marginalise the UK it might have to happen.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/05/2019 08:03

Much of the country has switched its brain off, not interested in any policy other than "winning" Brexit
Critical thought would result in them having to admit to a massive mistake

As from the seat calculator I posted upthread for various % vote scenarios,

farage can become PM with a solid majority (56) from even 24%, depending on vote split

He does NOT necessarily require 30% or even upper 20s, as I had previously thought

Getting above 30% could bring a landslide - which would be taken as a mandate to remake the country as he wants

Also, a Tory rump - wth those MPs desperate to retain their seats - could join a coalition with him

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 08:04

I'm saddened because it shows that nearly 40% of my fellow citizens, having seen everything that's happened over the past 3 years - the rise of the far right, the political and economic chaos, the appalling treatment of people simply for carrying a foreign taint - think it is all marvellous and in fact want MORE of this shit. And I'm saddened that nearly 40% of my fellow citizens are so disconnected from reality that they can be hoodwinked (again!) voting for a non-party with non-members and non-policies and non-facts, and that again somehow (without anybody including themselves needing to do any more than put that X in that box on polling day) this will lead to their twisted utopia.

It's not nearly 40% of your fellow citizens.

It's 40% of the people who can be arsed to get to a polling station. This is important and relevant.

Two of the reasons Trump came to power were disillusionment with the Democrats which caused depressed voter turnout and active voter suppression to disenfranchise the poor, the young and ethnic minorities.

Corbyn and May are a gift to Farage.

OP posts:
LonelyTiredandLow · 22/05/2019 08:05

Well, yes, that's why I mentioned the chaos and the fleeing!

UN report in to poverty and effects of austerity seem to be coming thick and fast. Yet no signs of it being dealt with or even that the BP who people are apparently turning to to 'change politics' even has it on it's radar. It does really make you wonder if the people who vote BP are indeed those affected.

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 08:07

He could be given a polite brush off. While it would take years for the EU to reconfigure trade dealings to completely marginalise the UK it might have to happen

No we'd become Trump's pawn and foothold in Europe. We'd get a us trade deal pretty fast under Farage as PM. Not because its in our interests but because Trump can line his pockets.

Trump would sign an executive order to bypass Congress to do it too I fear.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 22/05/2019 08:08

Corbyn won't help her because:

a) he wants a Tory meltdown and also chaos in the country - this is his chance for powe

  • Farage & Corbyn fighting it out for who starts the revolution

b) she's politically a dead woman walking, so any commitments she makes are meaningless

boatyardblues · 22/05/2019 08:09

Cheered myself up watching the Chernobyl series and thought 'well it could be worse'.

We are in dark times indeed.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/05/2019 08:09

The EU will not abandon their SM or Ireland
Not much to talk about

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 08:10

This from yesterday

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/farage-ritz-tea-party?__twitter_impression=true
New Video Shows Nigel Farage Courting Fringe Right-Wing Figures At A Private Tea Party Hosted At The Ritz
Farage was a guest at the event alongside people who have praised Putin and spread far-right memes. The Brexit Party leader asked them for money and “all the help we can get”.

OP posts:
borntobequiet · 22/05/2019 08:16

Women, in general, seem to be more moderate in their political views, don’t they? We’ve mentioned before on these threads that there seems to be a puzzling synchronicity in the rise of right wing politics and the rise of misogyny and the (seemingly deliberate) erosion of women’s rights. Though it’s the ostensibly left wing Greens that now call women non-men. (One of my reservations about the GP is that as an essentially single issue party, with a relatively small group in control, it has the potential to become very hardline when faced with dissent within the ranks.)

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 08:16

Norman Smith @ bbcnormans
Tory Brexiteers suggesting Monday cd be goodnight and goodbye for PM. ie a Men in Grey suits moment in wake of catastrophic euro elex results.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 08:32

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Three things Michael Gove has just refused to say, despite repeated pushing:
* Theresa May will definitely still be PM next Tuesday
* The WAB 2nd reading will go ahead week of June 4
* Boris Johnson will make a good Prime Minister
#r4today

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 08:34

Question which will be the one for Tories to reflect on.

Do they fear Farage as PM or Corbyn as PM and who can stop them. This is where moderates will look for a deal with Johnson no doubt. One that ultimately isn't binding...

OP posts:
woman19 · 22/05/2019 08:48

Do they fear Farage as PM or Corbyn as PM and who can stop them

They shall reap what they sow.

@BBCWalesNews
Brexit supporting MP David Davies called a liar while giving TV interview bbc.in/2WVK6cp

twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1130940872445579264

(He's called a liar by a brexit supporting lady from outside HOC)

woman19 · 22/05/2019 08:51

Whoops, missed this bit at the end. Brother Davies has seen the light as a result of the abuse he receives from the brexit lady.

Praise be!

@tnewtondunn
Tom Newton Dunn Retweeted BBC Wales News
“People like you make me want to join the EU again”