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Brexit

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?

960 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2019 23:50

It's been a month since parliament voting on anything.

The staggering reality of May's premiership is that government has ceased to function. We are stuck not just on Brexit but every other issue, such is the weakness of May's authority.

It begs the question of how long this is tolerable by all sides of the Conservative Civil War?

May being unable to bring anything forward means no deal is probably as inevitable as if a hardliner was PM.

There was talk of May / Corbyn reaching a fudge to get a deal via the backdoor WAB (Withdrawal Agreement Implimentation Bill) as it was politically impossible for them to be seen doing a deal any other way. However news today is that despite pressure from the 1922 Committee to bring it forward, May has slapped just a one line whip on it, meaning it will go precisely no where.

The polling for the European elections is perhaps more favourable to Labour than they might have feared after last weeks local election disaster so the mutual interest for Corbyn to move forward in anyway has already gone. Seeing the Tories be humiliated at the ballot box is too much of a temptation.

The phrase about Shit Creek only gets more apt.

All that is happening is every member of the Tory Party is lining up to take part in a leadership contest. It's harder to think of a Tory who isn't considering standing. It's not just the likes of Johnson, Gove, Rudd and Hunt. It's also the likes of Johnny Mercer and Graham Brady queuing not so patiently.

And its getting harder to argue that May is better as PM than the possibility of a right right candidate, because of the paralysis. Though as Rudd rightly points out, such a PM who wanted to actively have no deal as a policy, would struggle to win a majority in the HoC for that all important Queens Speech vote - every bit as much as May. Unless they were to somehow decide they could abuse the power of the executive and ignore parliament - a feat May has repeatedly attempted but ultimately failed at.

All everything feels, is a massive sense of merely delaying the inevitable.

Remain? Hard to see how under any Tory. A Deal? Hard to see what it might be and how there will be a Parliamentary majority. A PV? Well that still has to get through parliament and needs to be arranged smartish. And might not resolve the Irish border issue if the vote goes 'the wrong way' A General Election? That still seems to be a distinct possibility. But with the seeming resurrection of the LDs that's one the Tories will be desperate to avoid. Not that Corbyn is likely to succeed either. And of course there is now the Spectre of the Turquoise Arrows lurking. The crushing of the purple pound notes feels a hollow and distinct success.

It feels like we are waiting for the political sky to fall in in some sort of never ending Brexit Purgotory.

The cataclysmic event will occur at some point. It has to. But for now, it feels that there is nothing but waiting and waiting to be done.

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StripeyChina · 17/05/2019 14:01

Have something truly embarrassing to confess.

I separated from my husband and moved out not very long ago (on a temporary basis) AFAIK i was still on the Council Tax roll and registered to vote there. I had not done anything about it as it was unclear if we might agree to me moving back in (and him moving out)

Last weekend I asked him if my polling cards were through? He said No & it transpires he has taken me off the Council Tax. I didn't renew my registration to vote so I cannot now vote as i have not registered in my new accom. as it is temporary. My mess up clearly but i am upset that this will be the first time in my life i have not voted.
It is especially critical this time as, in the further discussion he said
he felt it was very important for HIM to vote as 'women died for this'. I was discombobulated by that. Then he said he is voting for the Brexit Party as he thinks Farage is a 'good chap who will get things done' :0

I don't post here often as I suffer ill health which affects my concentration so I cannot offer any particularly insightful comments but I really benefit from following the thread and value that a great deal. Now i feel SO stupid (in every respect). Shall i get my coat? :(

Bodoni · 17/05/2019 14:05

Berkshire Tories Against Brexit report their pro-EU Tory MP Philip Lee (Bracknell, Berks) is under attack by “Arron Banks and his mob” - twitter.com/toriesvsbrexit

NoWordForFluffy · 17/05/2019 14:17

@StripeyChina, I think you're being lied to. Council Tax is separate from the electoral roll. You normally only update the latter annually, unless you move and re-register elsewhere (thereby removing you from the previous address). Call the electoral office of your council and see if you're still registered (I reckon you are). You can vote without the polling card.

prettybird · 17/05/2019 14:18

NowordforFluffy (always think of Mudell when I type your name Wink): being geographically isolated and/or a small island doesn't explain Ireland or Malta. Confused

But I do think it's do with the UK sense of "exceptionalism", that we are supposedly above all of that pesky democracy in action. After all, don't they know who we are? Wink

NoWordForFluffy · 17/05/2019 14:23

No, I know...it's so fucking irritating though.

I'm pissed off with everything now, frankly. It's like this is just a persistent hell which will never end. AngrySad

LoonvanBoon · 17/05/2019 14:49

I feel like that, Fluffy. It's just depressing. I thought we'd have a longer sense of reprieve after the last extension, & a sense that Parliament was doing something constructive. I stupidly felt some sort of hope when May decided to talk to Corbyn at last. Sad

Violetparis · 17/05/2019 14:53

That map is worrying Shock, there does seem to be quite a bit of variation in the polls, hopefully this one over estimates The Brexit Party share.

NoWordForFluffy · 17/05/2019 15:03

The problem with Corbyn is that he's no less stubborn than May. The talks were never going anywhere with just those parties involved.

What was needed was full cross party talks 3 years' ago, not a half-arsed attempt AFTER the first extension when it's actually fucking do or die time!

If I was as incompetent as them I'd be out of a fucking job. Angry

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 15:08

I don't post here often as I suffer ill health which affects my concentration so I cannot offer any particularly insightful comments but I really benefit from following the thread and value that a great deal. Now i feel SO stupid (in every respect). Shall i get my coat?

No!

Honestly, if I split up with my husband, registering to vote wouldn't be the top of my list of things to sort. I would be pretty peed off he then told me he was voting for Farage because women died for the vote though.

Quite honestly if thats who he's voting for and thats his reason for voting, I think you've done yourself a favour; you are too good for him!

Don't let him get you down and think that whatever happens with the vote, your future must be better anyway! Look after yourself and be glad you don't have to have THAT argument now you don't live with him.

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RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 15:15

Oh and a point about the Election Maps 'projected seats'. Thats utter bollocks. Its methodology is complete arse and completely incorrect because they have just done it off the national percentages which are irrelevant.

What is important is where those votes are geographically and they are not spread evenly.

The other parties should do a lot better than the national percentages suggest because of where they are located.

I can not believe that someone who does mapping of votes, does something that wrong. Its statistically illiterate!

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RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 15:16

@StripeyChina, I think you're being lied to. Council Tax is separate from the electoral roll. You normally only update the latter annually, unless you move and re-register elsewhere (thereby removing you from the previous address). Call the electoral office of your council and see if you're still registered (I reckon you are). You can vote without the polling card.

AND THIS ^^^

If you only moved out recently, you should still be on the electoral role.

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woman19 · 17/05/2019 15:19

Don't let him get you down and think that whatever happens with the vote, your future must be better anyway! Look after yourself and be glad you don't have to have THAT argument now you don't live with him
I quite agree.
Flowers StripeyChina If you are registered to vote, you are registered to vote. Smile
Flowers red for the house move. Hope it resolves well. Smile

SusanWalker · 17/05/2019 15:31

I have now had leaflets from the brexit party, UKIP, labour, green and lib dems. Oh and an independent who is standing on a platform of going to Brussels and actually engaging and voting in the best interests of the UK.

prettybird · 17/05/2019 15:32

It strikes me that your not so d h is trying to gaslight you @stripeychina and make you think that you no longer have a vote, because he knows it is something that is important to you.

As NowordforFluffy has suggested, contact your local electoral register officer to check..... and (assuming you are still on the register), go and vote with pride Grin

...and make sure to tell your not so d h after you have done so Wink That way you can counter his Turquoise Party vote with something positive. Smile

howabout · 17/05/2019 15:35

RTB the latest Yougov poll has geographical split. The electoral map above is very close to the likely projections it gives (roughly 20% Brexit Party in Remain London and Scotland and up to 40% everywhere else).

The problem for Remainers is their vote concentration is more skewed than Leave. Their ancillary problem is that the higher the Remain vote in an area the more splintered the support. (Labour losing votes to LibDem / Green / Change in London but both Labour and Conservatives mainly losing votes to Brexit Party outside London).

thethethethethe · 17/05/2019 15:38

In Germany and France the media talk about the EU to children in a positive way. We sometimes watch a German daily news programme for children, and there's informative, positive cover of EU issues. What is there here?
The Express is mindboggling. It's a dishonest, manipulative propaganda machine for Farage. I don't even read it, and it constantly bombards me with Farage adulation.

StripeyChina · 17/05/2019 15:42

RTB
for you to take the time to post something so thoughtful has really touched me - thank you (I think I may have something in my eye)

He is an old style 1950's white working class 'bloke'. We sort of managed for most of the marriage but our opposing views on Brexit (plus millions of other things ;) have really showed the gap between us.

Cherrypi · 17/05/2019 15:57

Brexit party are going to storm it aren't they and tories are going to take that as a greenlight to no deal?

tobee · 17/05/2019 16:07

I think it's still going to be more complicated than that, Cherrypi. But that is a worry. Sad

TalkinPaece · 17/05/2019 16:10

StripeyChina
Go and vote next week and the rest of your life is a new adventure Flowers

Where is that Twitter Map getting its data ?
Twitter is a niche echo chamber with significant percentages of bot accounts
I'll believe the Brexit party winning when the votes are counted.
Everything I hear through work is that there is a surge of support for pro EU parties
it will all come down to the turnout

Tories are not campaigning - they cannot afford to print leaflets.

Icantreachthepretzels · 17/05/2019 16:15

People panicking about the brexit party - remember that even the polls they are appearing highest in - they are not polling as high as UKIP were in 2014. Yes UKIP went on to get 24 seats - but where on earth that map got 33 seats for the brexit party, I do not know.

Don't worry about the people who will vote for Farage - you cannot change their mind, they are lost. Focus on getting every anti-Farage person you know to go out and vote in the elections. It's the middle ground we need to turn out. Lib Dems are doing really well in polls and did much better than predicted in the locals, so if you want to coordinate the remain vote (excluding Scotland) they seem to be the way to go.

Peregrina · 17/05/2019 16:27

We must not be complacent about voting though. If it rains, don't let that put you off. Let it put the Faragists off though.

TalkinPaece · 17/05/2019 16:32

It's the middle ground we need to turn out.
This with bells on.
Farage will get most of the Tory party members and a bunch of racists and bigots

but if Libdem and Green get every single moderate vote in England
Libdem and SNP pick up Scotland
Libdem and Plaid take Wales
and the Greens hold on to their seats
then the UK will be properly represented in Brussels

Labour and Tories both deserve to be utterly wiped out

Peregrina · 17/05/2019 16:34

I still hope that it's like the last GE - can't vote for Labour, can't vote with Corbyn in charge, May will get 100 majority. Yet DB went to a Corbyn rally and saw that the place was packed - not reported of course. Then the results came out.

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 16:36

Right, I'm just looking through the detail of the You Gov survey.

There is a question about 'liklihood to vote in the EU elections rating yourself 1 to 10'

This is the percentage who rated themselves 10 by Westminster voting intention

Con - 55
Lab - 57
LD - 68
UKIP - 58
SNP / Plaid - 65
Green - 64
Brexit - 85
Change - 75

The other interesting things were that the Brexit Party supporters had the most 'highly interested in politics' rating and 60% of Remainers were certain to vote compared to 59% leavers. Those who want to leave without a deal were also the most likely to definitely vote.

The YouGov polling is weighted by likihood to vote and this is important. It suggests that the polling IS probably picking up most Brexit Party supporters.

This comes down to age again. The more young people that vote, the more difference it will make, to keeping those Brexit Party figures down.

Also, 56% of men are certain to vote compared to 49% of women.

So youth vote and women's vote are utterly critical. Make sure people you do know, vote.

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