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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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Thread gallery
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BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:13

Yep, woman pandering to populists just makes them stronger
Better to stand up for the decent values you believe in
... that may be part of Corbyn`s problem - some of his beliefs are far from decent

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:14

Washington South (Sunderland) result:
Grn: 24.9% (+19.1)
Lab: 24.8% (-20.4)
Con: 19.4% (-5.5)
UKIP: 18.7% (-0.3)
LDem: 12.2% (+7.1)

Southwick (Sunderland) result:
Lab: 45.9% (-9.4)
UKIP: 25.7% (+3.2)
Con: 15.7% (+1.2)
Grn: 6.6% (+2.1)
LDem: 6.0% (+2.8)

Redhill (Sunderland) result:
UKIP: 41.0% (+18.2)
Lab: 37.6% (-25.2)
Con: 14.1% (+4.5)
Grn: 7.3% (+7.3)
UKIP GAIN from Labour.

#LE2019
Birkenhead & Tranmere (Wirral) result:
Grn: 65.9% (+34.3)
Lab: 31.7% (-24.3)
Con: 2.3% (-1.0)
Green GAIN from Labour.

Pallion (Sunderland) result:
LDem: 63.7% (+60.0)
Lab: 16.7% (-32.6)
UKIP: 13.0% (-14.7)
Con: 4.1% (-11.0)
Grn: 2.5% (-1.7)
Technical GAIN from 2015.
HOLD from by-election.

These are BRUTAL for Labour!!!

Will Corbyn walk!!!!?!

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SwedishEdith · 03/05/2019 00:15

'kin 'ell Shock

Britain Elects

#LE2019
Birkenhead & Tranmere (Wirral) result:

Grn: 65.9% (+34.3)
Lab: 31.7% (-24.3)
Con: 2.3% (-1.0)

Green GAIN from Labour.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:15

Penhill & Upper Stratton (Swindon) result:
Con: 41.5% (+6.6)
Lab: 30.0% (-9.5)
Ind: 17.9% (+17.9)
Grn: 6.6% (+1.9)
LDem: 4.2% (+4.2)
Conservative GAIN from Labour.

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HexagonalBattenburg · 03/05/2019 00:15

Wouldn't read too much into that Millfield Lib Dem swing - it's a very odd seat as there's a huge swathe of student accommodation in the area.

Bloody pissed off - I know the Labour casualties to UKIP there very well and they don't deserve the routing - it's the ones who would be really really good local councillors who've suffered.

LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 00:17

Washington South appears to clearly illustrate what voters swapped Labour for...

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:20

Tokyo The last thing we need is Watson forming yet another Remain party to spit the vote even further
If Labour`s bad night continues, I hope Watson helps boot out Corbyn

If the night continues like this, the Tories will be delighted
Predictions were they`d lose 800-1000 seats, then that it woud only be 500-600, now .... ?

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:20

From earlier in the week this is roughly what is thought to be a good / bad result.

CON
Good = -300
Bad = -1000

LAB
Good = +300
Bad = +100

LDM
Good = +500
Bad = +200

UKIP
Good = -50
Bad = -150

GRN
Good = +50
Bad = -1

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BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:23

Greens doing very well, probably benefiting from angry Labour Remainers

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:24

Blakelaw (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
Lab: 51.0% (-4.4)
UKIP: 20.9% (+2.5)
LDem: 12.3% (+3.0)
Con: 9.4% (-2.2)
Grn: 6.3% (+1.0)

Fulwell (Sunderland) result:
Con: 30.7% (-8.9)
Lab: 29.1% (-12.4)
LDem: 19.6% (+15.2)
UKIP: 14.2% (-0.3)
Grn: 6.5% (+6.5)
Conservative GAIN from Labour.

Love that one. Cons lose 8% of vote, but win the seat because of all the pissed off Remainers jumping ship to the LDs.

Sunderland was solid red. Can you say that now? Everyone expected to vote for the Red rosetted donkey stayed home!

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TokyoSushi · 03/05/2019 00:25

Yes I agree @BigChocFrenzy Tom Watson replacing Corbyn is a far better option, but we're probably dreaming.

Night all, really, see you bright & early!

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:25

Wallasey (Wirral) result:
Con: 52.6% (+7.8)
Lab: 32.1% (-6.6)
Grn: 6.4% (+1.0)
LDem: 4.6% (+1.1)
UKIP: 4.4% (-3.2)

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BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:25

Labour often warn that`ll happen - vote LDem, get Tory
Well, sometimes you get LDem, as we are seeing here

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:27

So far
(from @electionmapsuk)

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
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Icantreachthepretzels · 03/05/2019 00:27

Labour needed to take a savaging - they have been too complacent with their belief that they could hold onto the remain vote whilst offering them absolutely nothing and still chasing the leavers. They need to be shown - before the EU elections - that they cannot take the remain vote for granted.

But Corbyn won't walk. Anymore than TM ever will.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:29

Beth Rigby@BethRigby

Swindon key Con/Lab battleground > Senior Tory tells me this a ‘huge positive’.

Labour has lost its PPC. ‘Very bad for Labour’

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:31

Richard Moss@BBCRichardMoss

Two quick gains for the Conservatives in Sunderland.

Labour having the worst night I can remember there.

LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 00:32

Sunderland looking a bit like Spain with a backpack on in that post!
I deffo need sleep! Feels like it will be a good night for reminding the main parties that the remain vote was almost half of the country. Night all Smile

woman19 · 03/05/2019 00:32

True BCF and pretzels He's been found out.

This is unusual:
#LE2019 Doxford (Sunderland) result: LDem: 42.7% (+42.7) Lab: 23.3% (-26.8) UKIP: 16.6% (-3.6) Con: 12.6% (-11.9) Grn: 4.8% (-0.4)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:32

The Conservatives might well want a quick snap election off the back of this at this rate.

This will make it harder to get a cross party deal through if Cons hold and Lab have a mare.

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RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:33

Ouseburn (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:

LDem: 49.7% (+28.1)
Lab: 37.6% (-5.4)
Grn: 9.5% (-7.7)
Con: 3.2% (-7.7)

LDem GAIN from Lab.

No UKIP (-6.2) as prev.

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woman19 · 03/05/2019 00:34

And another one.
Ouseburn (Newcastle upon Tyne) result: LDem: 49.7% (+28.1) Lab: 37.6% (-5.4) Grn: 9.5% (-7.7) Con: 3.2% (-7.7)
LDem GAIN from Lab.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:34

Penhill & Upper Stratton (Swindon) result:

Con: 41.5% (+6.6)
Lab: 30.0% (-9.5)
Ind: 17.9% (+17.9)
Grn: 6.6% (+1.9)
LDem: 4.2% (+4.2)
UKIP: 0.0% (-20.9)

Conservative GAIN from Labour.

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LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 00:34

I don't believe there was any risk of a deal Red, thought those rumours were just keeping the heat off for both parties for a bit.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:35

Swindon is generally regarded as a bellwether town. These results are bad for Labour. Really bad.

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