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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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woman19 · 02/05/2019 23:47

Professor Sir John Curtice

Polling expert

"The first key results in Sunderland, all of which were contested by UKIP, between them show a 6.5% increase in the UKIP vote - even though the party is defending the relatively high baseline that it enjoyed in 2015.

"If this pattern continues then we will get ample confirmation of the rise in support for Eurosceptic parties as indicated in the opinion polls.

However, so far it is Labour not the Conservatives whose vote has fallen sharply, so far by no less than 17 points

"Here at least may be an indication that in a very strong Leave Labour-voting area that Euroscepticism could well serve to erode Labour's support."

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 23:48

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RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 23:48

Millfield (Sunderland) result: LDem: 60.7% (+52.6) Lab: 23.2% (-26.7) UKIP: 8.5% (-11.3) Con: 3.7% (-11.6) Grn: 2.6% (-2.5)
LDem GAIN from Lab.

Lib Dems +52.6% from 8.1%!!!!!!!

St Michael's (Sunderland) result: Con: 50.8% (+4.5) Lab: 21.2% (-9.4) UKIP: 12.2% (+0.2) Grn: 10.3% (+3.6) LDem: 5.5% (+1.1)

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TokyoSushi · 02/05/2019 23:50

Hmm, Labour not doing very well at the moment.

Please somebody tell me to go to bed!

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 23:51

Sunderland...wasn't that meant to be a pro-Brexit area? Labour slowly waking up to something the Tories have never grasped - people can change their minds.

SwedishEdith · 02/05/2019 23:51

Stephen Bush
‏*@stephenkb*

A gentle reminder, re: Sunderland results that a Labour councillor had to stand down having been convicted of child sexual offences so we expect them to do worse than elsewhere tonight:

twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1124076786269216768

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 23:56

Seen a tweet from BBC relating to Leeds. They are speculating that the Conservative vote has held up.

Is tonight going to be a bigger disaster for Lab than the Cons, if only because everyone has expected it to be dreadful for the Conservatives and decent for Labour?

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woman19 · 02/05/2019 23:57

I agree with prettybird's post. Lovely bunch from all over, on this thread. (I grew up very near to Bearsden, at a very similar time Wink)

Watching lib dem's very closely tonight. +52% very tidy.

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 23:58

Am I naive in thinking these initial votes appear to be showing strong pro-remain surges?

Tokyo - I also should go to bed...just. a. little. more.

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 23:59

Red because Labour assumed they wanted to hold onto the Leave vote... Cons have been expecting defeat but Lab screwed up.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:00

I posted before that I expected UKIP to make gains, because Brexiters are angry and BREX isn`t standing
but I expected them to take a lot of Tory votes

However, Im surprised that so far we arent seeing the Tory voters staying home, or voting UKIP, as threatened
Maybe in later results

Labour voters may be punishing Corbyn for blocking the PV

Icantreachthepretzels · 03/05/2019 00:00

Seen a tweet from BBC relating to Leeds. They are speculating that the Conservative vote has held up.

I was the only person in my polling station under the age of about 75. And the stations seem to have been deathly quiet. It could well be that only the tories turned out.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:02

Cotswold Lib Dems @ cotswoldlibdems
First result of the night. Liberal Democrat Roly Hughes holds Chesterton with a massive 87% of the vote. @libdems #LocalElections2019

Lonely, what I can see is a Remain / Leave effect. Which screws Labour and the Tories. Its polarisation.

Early days but clear dissatisfaction going on with LAB in Sunderland. Could be local issues but likely to be very much to do with Brexit too.

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BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:02

Corbyn trying to hang onto both Remain & Leave voters may have succeeded instead in pissing off both

HateIsNotGood · 03/05/2019 00:03

Thanks RTB - good for the LDs - they've hung their petard on Remain - unlike any of the other Parties flopping around like wet fish on a dry boat, so totally respect them for that.

Sunderland is one of the most eye-opening places I have ever lived (80-81) - I'd seen poor and deprived, abroad, in Scotland, in Ireland, in 'sthrn England' but not like Sunderland then - I learned then about UK poverty.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:04

Nethermayne (Basildon) result:

Ind: 77.3% (+74.2)
Lab: 13.2% (-13.5)
Con: 6.9% (-22.5)
UKIP: 2.6% (-27.3)

No UKIP (-27.3) and LDem (-10.9) as prev.

(yeah I know, the above makes no sense)

Independents will do massively well I suspect too.

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LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 00:05

Yup - leave voters not likely to be in tune with Corbyn given all of the stats, so why he thought he had them at all is odd. His core were, as NEC and everyone else has been telling him, always going to be the remain lot. He didn't want to risk it.

I hope we get clear LD gains as we go.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:05

Corbyn trying to hang onto both Remain & Leave voters may have succeeded instead in pissing off both

Yep. I think that's about the measure of it.

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woman19 · 03/05/2019 00:07

Is tonight going to be a bigger disaster for Lab
Yes,

For clues on how sucking up to the right and racists doesn't work for mainstream parties, and standing up to them gains votes, see Spain. Wink

Labour voters may be punishing Corbyn for blocking the PV
So much to punish that little man and his funders for. We have just started.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:09

The Labour Voting North can't stand Corbyn.

I've not heard a good word about him from friends in months, including ones who were full on Corbynites at one point. The difference from 2017 is staggering.

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TokyoSushi · 03/05/2019 00:09

Tom Watson to form breakaway remain/definite 'confirmatory vote' as a minimum party?

TM to call a GE sensing that people are more pissed off with Labour than they thought?

Leaving that there and going to bed (in just a minute!)

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:10

Walker (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:

Lab: 53.5% (-12.3)
UKIP: 32.1% (+10.9)
Con: 7.4% (+1.0)
LDem: 7.1% (+3.7)

(note that's NE and not Sunderland Council and that's very similar to Sunderland results)

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woman19 · 03/05/2019 00:12

These are horrendous results for corbyn.

HateIsNotGood · 03/05/2019 00:12

It's anyone's tonight - how refreshing - pjs, cheese on toast, set alarm, sofa awaits...

Anyone to win but Tories and Labour - I've had a gutful of those buggers for too long.

Parhaat toiveet

LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 00:12

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Washington South (Sunderland) result:

Grn: 24.9% (+19.1)
Lab: 24.8% (-20.4)
Con: 19.4% (-5.5)
UKIP: 18.7% (-0.3)
LDem: 12.2% (+7.1)

557
11:59 PM - May 2, 2019
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Britain Elects
@britainelects
#LE2019
Birkenhead & Tranmere (Wirral) result:

Grn: 65.9% (+34.3)
Lab: 31.7% (-24.3)
Con: 2.3% (-1.0)

Green GAIN from Labour.

480
12:07 AM - May 3, 2019
Green gains!

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