Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
17
BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:35

NI Turnout is estimated at about 50%-55% Shock

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:37

West Park (South Tyneside) result:

Lab: 40.5% (-5.0)
Grn: 37.9% (+29.0)
Con: 21.6% (+4.7)

No UKIP (-28.7) as prev.

Bonkers. Greens gaining more of the vote than the Conservatives got

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:39

Did UKIP really get zero % in Penhill - or more likely does that list just mean they didn`t stand ?
Reportedly, they stood in far fewer seats than last locals

tobee · 03/05/2019 00:39

Red if May decides to call a GE on the back of a bad night for Labour at the locals she's got a very short memory!

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:40

That's decent turnout for local elections isn't it? Certainly for a non GE night

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
There could be a lot of spoilt ballots tonight. In one ward in Swindon (Tory held) 131 rejected ballot papers. I'd wager the word "Brexit" appeared scrawled on a fair few of them.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:41

John Curtice:

"In 2015 Conservatives and Labour dominated the election. In these early signs so far we might be seeing that those days are over.

When I look at voting figures for Labour and the Conservatives and compare them to last year, I am looking at a lot of minus signs.

I'm looking at a lot of plus signs for the Greens.
I'm seeing UKIP clearly stronger than they were in 2016 and 2017.
And the Lib Dems are not spectacular but they have rather more pluses than minuses.

The message of the opinion polls has been that both Conservatives and Labour have been losing ground because of the Brexit impasse.
That may be confirmed by the end of the night."

LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 00:42

It is making me wonder why leave areas are voting Green, esp if we are to believe Leavers don't hold Env issues high in priorities. Unless these areas had low turnout for the Ref?

And sleep.

woman19 · 03/05/2019 00:44

Labour lost Hartlepool. Barnsley looking bad for them too.

BoreOfWhabylon · 03/05/2019 00:44

Corbyn will just dig his heels in, won't he?

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:46

Charlotte Green @ chargreenldr
We've got the first result of the night in for Oldham. Chadderton South ward has been held by Labour's Graham Shuttleworth with 964 votes. UKIP were second with 482, Tories with 390, Green with 123 and Lib Dems with 76

Turnout was 25.74%. In 2015, Councillor Shuttleworth won the seat with 1,940 votes.

There is the story of tonight.

The local election vote in 2015 was the same night at the GE so turnout was high. We know that Tory voters are more likely to vote generally, so higher turnout favours Labour whilst low turnout favours Cons.

A 25% turnout is LOW.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:47

Dare I say it - polarisation: the start of the 2 tribes abandoning the old parties that no longer represent them

Still time for Watson & Starmer to save Labour

The Tories may take heart from not losing as badly, but this looks more like a blip, with UKIP too weak to take advantage
Toies still look set for a hammering in the EP elections

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:49

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak
Labour has lost control of Hartlepool, been in charge there since 2010, taken by independents

Hartlepool is Brexit Party territory.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:50

If it were just turnout, why the surprising swing to Green in Labour Leave areas ?

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:51

Prince of Darkness territory - he used to be their MP iirc

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:52

Not that he has a following, just that he probably pissed off a lot of people

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 00:53

Time for bed said zebedee

OP posts:
woman19 · 03/05/2019 00:54

Yup. Night all.Flowers

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 00:56

Im still chortling - and baffled by - Boriss tweet claiming to have voted in London
(maybe with his EP polling card !)

Why such a pointless and public LIE ?
(OK, it may be just habit for him)

Icantreachthepretzels · 03/05/2019 00:57

I should got to bed ... but when it's an election night I can't help but remember the night I went to bed when Farage had made his concession speech and all looked well ... only to wake up in a living nightmare the next morning. I'm afraid that if I go to sleep I'll wake up to find that every local council is either UKIP or Tory.

In 2017 I spent the night manically refreshing this thread (or at least - the current one back then) I wasn't even on MN then. The result was rather more heartening than the 2016 one ... though we are still where we are, now.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 01:08

Lower turnout means fewer people need to change vote to get huge swings.

Thus if 250 people voted Labour on a 70% turnout, and turnout reduced to 25%, you'd only expect 89 of those voters to show up (provided turnout was consistent amongst parties).

If just 8 change their mind and vote differently that blows a massive hole in the 2015 vote percentages. Plus we know Labour voters are traditionally more apathetic.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 01:10

Freshney (North East Lincolnshire) result:
Con: 35.3% (+8.8)
Lab: 28.7% (-13.2)
UKIP: 18.0% (-9.6)
Ind: 17.9% (+17.9)
Conservative GAIN from Labour.

Sandhill (Sunderland) result:

LDem: 38.7% (+35.2)
UKIP: 27.1% (+1.2)
Lab: 23.4% (-31.5)
Grn: 5.5% (+5.5)
Con: 5.3% (-10.4)

Conservatives have lost overall control of Basildon and Tandridge local authorities.

And I really need to sleep now.

OP posts:
Icantreachthepretzels · 03/05/2019 01:12

The FBM (For Britain - a UKIP splinter group) gained De Bruce (Hartlepool). labour held on in Hetton (Sunderland) but with a big decrease.

tobee · 03/05/2019 01:13

Tandridge! My parents' local authority! Their Labour votes did not work there.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 01:13

Luiciana Berger land

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
Rumours that Labour might have lost control of Wirral. Centre of the Labour civil war. Looks like the voters have parted company with both sides.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 01:16

In Wirral

Tom Houghton @tomashoughton
Been told Labour has lost over 8,000 votes overall in tonight's election.

OP posts: