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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 22:59

lonely Sounds like a UKIP supporter leaving their mark.
The recent influx has been heavily far right

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 02/05/2019 22:59

At all. I do have a problem with continually being called a racist, ignorant, etc, etc because from my POV the UK should Leave the EU now

I got fairly pissed off with being called a traitor amongst other things and i didnt like being called racist

Can you still get executed for being a traitor?

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 23:00

American bridge dwellers seem to have woken up again.

Love this line @Hate Tolerance and understanding of difference is key here.

BCF FWIW I agree it's about authoritarianism. I'm fascinated by those who are most fearful in society needing protections against those who dare to venture out. They seem very angry! Far too much freedom for starters Grin.

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 23:02

Ah makes sense. At least they aren't pretending not to be Nazi's any more then, that's something!

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 23:08

To digress, as it'll be a long wait for results ..--

In 1993, Alan Sked founded what he intended as a Eurosceptic Liberal /centrist party ...... UKIP !
Farage took control from him and turned it into a monster
Now Batten has taken over and let in openly fascist members & candidates

We know Farage at Dulwich College marched around chanting "Gas the Jews"

UKIP founder Alan Sked reported Farage - as a middle-aged politician - still made very racist remarks:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-founder-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster

"They took out the bit about no prejudices against lawful minorities
and, as soon as I disappeared, they all decided they wanted to go to the European parliament and take their expenses."
...
"He wanted ex-National Front candidates to run and I said, 'I'm not sure about that,' and he said,
'There's no need to worry about the n@@ger vote. The n@g-n@gs will never vote for us.'"

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 23:13

Lonely glad you can find something to agree with me on - it's always a good starting point when trying to find a way through any disagreements.

So now the Russians (who aren't interested) have gone to sleep and apparently anyone still awake is an American Troll? Feeling a tad self-important aren't you as neither the Russians or Americans care what Mnetters think?

Well - I'm just a 'geeky' Local Election bore - who will be staying up falling asleep on sofa with tv on to find out how it goes.

phpolly · 02/05/2019 23:13

.

TheElementsSong · 02/05/2019 23:15

twitter.com/jimmfelton/status/1124047130702827523?s=21

Boris Johnson (former mayor and current resident of London) tweeted that he just voted in the local elections.

He deleted when he was informed that there are no local elections in London today

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 23:19

Confused @Hate why American biscuit lovers want to start goady threads all over MN has nothing to do with me, why would it make me feel self-important? Confused

In fact all day this thread has been a veritable oasis of calm, other than a brief disquiet about cycle lanes! until one poster in particular has rocked up and flung accusatory comments at regular posters left right and centre...that reeks of needing to be centre stage.

ContinuityError · 02/05/2019 23:19

I do hope that has been captured for posterity.

What a knob.

ContinuityError · 02/05/2019 23:20

I mean Boris’s twattery.

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 23:21

Grin Bojo may have been on here earlier!

Ellie56 · 02/05/2019 23:27

I do hope that has been captured for posterity

Oh it has. Grin

www.politwoops.co.uk/p/conservative/BorisJohnson/1124025850092032000

Ellie56 · 02/05/2019 23:27

He is such a twat. How can he ever be Prime Minister?

ContinuityError · 02/05/2019 23:28

Just to derail a little ... I have just found out the answer to “how do hedgehogs make love?”

The answer is not “very carefully” but VERY LOUDLY Confused

TokyoSushi · 02/05/2019 23:31

Just staying up to see the start of the election results programme on the BBC, promising myself I'll be in bed by midnight, let's see!

woman19 · 02/05/2019 23:31

@bbclaurak
Also early predictions that lib dems may put on a lot of seats - maybe more than 500, Tories say they have seen evidence of it and lib dems feeling positive too

@DenisDoherty
First early changes have included a UKIP and Conservative gain from Labour in Sunderland and a Labour gain from Conservative in Basildon.

prettybird · 02/05/2019 23:37

The regular posters on here are all very open about where they are current living. BCF talks regularly about her life in Germany (choosing to move back there, having worked there before, after 23 June as she could see the clusterfuck coming). TisILeClerc is also open about being Shock a man Shock and also now living in France - but still with an interest (not just a selfish one) in the future of both the UK and EU.

There are posters who live in Denmark, Italy, Sweden, more from France, Belgium, Ireland, just off the top of my head.

There are also posters who currently live in the UK who don't want to be in the UK - but they hope they can achieve that objective without moving Wink - or not having to move very far Grin

I've enjoyed getting to "know" this disparate bunch of people, some of whom I've now been in contact with outwith these threads. Hate is indeed not good - and I see a lot of warmth and hope, positive values and a sense of community within these threads HaloFlowers

As well as pretty pictures of cats and gardening tips Grin

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 23:38

Sunderland council - Lab Hold.

Chorley council - Lab Hold.

Halton council - Lab Hold.

No surprises at all there.

So far just Lab have lost one seat to UKIP. Cons yet to lose a seat.

Here's some results which give an idea of swings going on:

Washington North (Sunderland) result:
Lab: 42.7% (-17.5)
UKIP: 29.8% (+8.7)
Con: 12.2% (+0.9)
Grn: 11.7% (+7.5)
LDem: 3.6% (+0.3)

Silksworth (Sunderland) result:
Lab: 37.7% (-15.9)
UKIP: 28.3% (+5.7)
Con: 19.8% (+1.4)
Grn: 9.6% (+4.2)
Oth: 4.7% (+4.7)

Lee Chapel North (Basildon) result:
Lab: 52.6% (+15.2)
Con: 26.4% (+4.1)
LDem: 21.0% (+16.8)
No UKIP (-36.0) as prev.

St Chad's (Sunderland) result:
Con: 39.8% (+8.0)
Lab: 28.0% (-16.5)
UKIP: 22.3% (+5.5)
Grn: 5.8% (+2.7)
LDem: 4.0% (+0.3)
Conservative GAIN from Labour.

Spalding Castle (South Holland) result:
Con: 46.7% (-37.8)
Grn: 37.6% (+22.1)
Ind: 15.7% (+15.7)

St Anne's (Sunderland) result:
UKIP: 34.8% (+8.1)
Lab: 32.9% (-19.6)
Con: 16.8% (+1.8)
LDem: 9.1% (+6.3)
Grn: 6.4% (+3.4)
UKIP GAIN from Labour.

I think all the predictions were for UKIP to get a lot of loses, but these early results look very Brexity. Much more than I think were predicted.

Will be interesting to see other parts of the country but I think thats more Brexity than people thought.

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LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 23:39

Continuity - had a couple in my garden last week..they were quieter than the foxes! Honestly thought someone was being raped the first time I heard that at 2am!

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 23:40

It doesn't look like Labour are going to have a great night.

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RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 23:41

David Harrison @DaveHarrisonBBC
Hull City Council Leader Stephen Brady tells @andycomfort he expects to see the highest number of spoiled ballot papers the city has ever seen. He expects a 10% lower turnout than usual & has even seen people rip papers up in the polling station. Worrying times.

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RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 23:43

Washington Central (Sunderland) result: Lab: 41.3% (-12.0) UKIP: 25.4% (+4.3) Con: 18.2% (+1.4) Grn: 9.3% (+5.2) LDem: 5.9% (+1.1)

Washington North (Sunderland) result: Lab: 42.7% (-17.5) UKIP: 29.8% (+8.7) Con: 12.2% (+0.9) Grn: 11.7% (+7.5) LDem: 3.6% (+0.3)

Washington East (Sunderland) result: Lab: 37.6% (-9.0) Con: 24.0% (-4.3) UKIP: 19.4% (+4.1) Grn: 12.0% (+7.7) LDem: 7.0% (+2.7)

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RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 23:45

Doxford (Sunderland) result: LDem: 42.7% (+42.7) Lab: 23.3% (-26.8) UKIP: 16.6% (-3.6) Con: 12.6% (-11.9) Grn: 4.8% (-0.4)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.

Houghton (Sunderland) result: Lab: 40.5% (-4.8) UKIP: 34.9% (+19.8) Con: 9.8% (+1.5) Grn: 8.0% (+8.0) Ind: 6.8% (-22.5)

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LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 23:46

So turnout is higher?

This could have all been a ploy to get the public more interested in politics after all!