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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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tobee · 03/05/2019 18:03

Just catching up on this morning's Brexitcast (recorded at 9.30 am, ) The conclusion was that both sides of Brexit debate could claim that this proved their own point of view. This was when Tories and Labour had done equally badly in the results at that time.

DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 18:03

Not sure who to vote for in Euros, LD or ChangeUk.

I'm going LDs, (but have voted Green in the past). CUK/CHUK/whatever are too fresh for my liking. Not long enough to sound them out ... don't want to discover they are pro-EU but also pro-Trump or something equally vomit inducing.

BestIsWest · 03/05/2019 18:10

Interesting observation from my DD who lives in a small block of flats.

All of the men in the building have been sent Brexit Party leaflets and none of the women have.

DH has had one too but not me. Anyone else noticed this?

Also, we’re in Wales and every other party prints their leaflet in two languages. Not so the Brexit party.

Peregrina · 03/05/2019 18:10

For the hard of thinking, like Clavinova
Just looked at one of the wards in Mole Valley - the turnout was 42.2% - down from 71.9% in 2015. The Lib Dem candidate took the seat - but with slightly fewer votes than 2015.

You do realise, don't you, that turn outs are much higher when Local elections are combined with General elections? Do recall, there was a GE in 2015.

borntobequiet · 03/05/2019 18:11

No LD MEPs where I am so CUK will be my vote. I’m encouraged by Independents doing well in the LE. - though I know they could be anyone and stand for anything.

icannotremember · 03/05/2019 18:17

I know a gay woman who doesn't support gay marriage, because she's fervently against the institution of marriage and sees it as wholly patriarchal. She wants to fight to end all marriage rather than to ensure she has an equal right to choose or avoid it. Not my way of thinking at all but I sort of get it. And there are gay priests who say it's fine to be gay as long as you are abstinent. People are interesting.

NigellasGuest · 03/05/2019 18:19

Well the LDs stand for some things I dont approve of either, but needs must. Not really bothered about ChangeUk's stance on other things ATM. I just want to make my remain preference heard.

Peregrina · 03/05/2019 18:23

For JasperRising sorry for the delay in replying - been out at the Town Count
SODC Tories fall out

I hadn't heard about the other party you mention, who have just sprung up from nowhere. John Cotton, the ex-Leader, didn't stand again, and his seat in Berinsfield has gone Green. Along with 4 others, and one of the Independents is also Green really.

I can't remember which poster said it, but pleased though I am that my party has wiped the floor with the Tories in both District and Town election, I don't think it's healthy to have a virtual one party monopoly. A couple of pretty decent Tory councillors have lost seats. Mind you, some of the others should have been voted out years ago.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 18:25

All of the men in the building have been sent Brexit Party leaflets and none of the women have

The target demographic of the Brexit Party will be men. Women are much more likely to a) vote Labour b) change from leave to remain

The 2016 ashcroft polls pointed to leavers being more likely to think feminism is a force for ill.

The Brexit party basically want us back in the kitchen and doing what out husbands tell us.

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borntobequiet · 03/05/2019 18:25

My brother is gay and was in a long term happy relationship until his partner sadly died a couple of years ago. Neither he nor his partner thought gay marriage in any way necessary, though they felt a civil partnership would have meant they wouldn’t have had to take legal steps re inheritance etc.

DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 18:26

All of the men in the building have been sent Brexit Party leaflets and none of the women have.

The day after the referendum, I pointed out that 52/48 "majority" was equivalent to women/men, and that there would be uproar if that were to be enforced ....

TalkinPaece · 03/05/2019 18:32

The detail is rather interesting.
I'm not at all happy that the meejah is lumping all independent candidates together
but looking at the elections I know about I am reassured that people are like HateisnotGood and seeing through the closet BNP/UKIP folks
phew

BercowsSilkTie · 03/05/2019 18:42

icannotremember thank you. I hadn't thought of it from that point of view, it just struck me as odd as I've heard the DUP are very anti-homosexuality.

Violetparis · 03/05/2019 18:42

Torys at -1254 with 20 more councils still to declare

TalkinPaece · 03/05/2019 18:43

Watching a couple of specific wards - more closet UKIP folks losing out .... such a shame Grin

Iambuffy · 03/05/2019 18:44

This is almost as bad for the Tories as the 1995 locals under major....

HateIsNotGood · 03/05/2019 18:50

Late return in this District - 50% Independent, Tories taken a complete drubbing, Labour small increase, same with Greens, Lib Dems were on 0 until the very last Ward where they got 2. Which gave us a NOC Council.
All UKIP booted out.

My 2 Newbie Indies did well, 1 came 4th in the 3 seat District Ward and got elected to the Town Council.

A good Result for this District and Town.

BoreOfWhabylon · 03/05/2019 18:57

OK, my polling card for the EU election arrived today.

I'm in the SW. Could someone please explain s l o w l y how the voting works? Don't know whether to go for LD, Greens or ChUK. Want to avoid splitting Remain vote and allowing UKIP (or English Democrats) in.

JasperRising · 03/05/2019 18:57

Peregrina thanks for the link! It does seem to tally with my area where the Tory candidate wasn't re-elected (he wasn't one of the ones suspended so I guess he voted for the plan and we are an area affected by some of the building proposals).

I get what you are saying about one party monopolies and recognising individual councillors doing good work even when they are not of the party you support. (But I am also pleased to be represented by a lib dem councillor)

havingtochangeusernameagain · 03/05/2019 19:04

In the south-west I would vote for Molly Cato of the Greens.

Also, we’re in Wales and every other party prints their leaflet in two languages. Not so the Brexit party

Isn't that unlawful under the Welsh language legislation?

Littlespaces · 03/05/2019 19:04

Green at the moment in the SW. Molly Scott Cato very good MEP.

After that the next strongest remain party are Lib Dems who were just short of getting a seat last time.

So Green to solidify the seat or Lib Dem to possibly get another.

havingtochangeusernameagain · 03/05/2019 19:04

Molly Scott Cato sorry forgot her full name for a minute

Wakemeuuuup · 03/05/2019 19:04

I got a leaflet from the brexit party today. Only thing I've received so far. It went straight in the bin. I do worry that they will win in my constituency

TalkinPaece · 03/05/2019 19:07

Baldrick says ...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48152475

Littlespaces · 03/05/2019 19:07

All my local towns voted Lib Dem.

Go South West!

I know that the EU elections might be shit, but if people are daft enough to be taken in by Nigel Farage then they almost deserve the fallout.

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