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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 17:26

There must be a wonderful cold revenge vibe around LDHQ right now, after the shafting the Tories exposed them to in 2015.

Camerons comments are fascinating too ....

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 17:26

If May had gone for Norway++ - as Barnier originally recommended - we would be out, most Remainers would have accepted it and moved on

OublietteBravo · 03/05/2019 17:26

Greens have achieved their ‘good’ result 3 times over. UKIP down by over 100.

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
TatianaLarina · 03/05/2019 17:27

I knew the LDs would come in handy again eventually!

Like something in the attic you nearly threw out but held on to.

Iambuffy · 03/05/2019 17:27

True bcf

DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 17:28

I knew the LDs would come in handy again eventually!

The Keith Richards of politics. Mind you, even he looks younger than Vince Cable ...

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 17:31

Very ODD ! Confused

Leigh Boobyerr@LeighBoobyer*

CON HOLD: A knife-edge but Stephen Hirst holds Tetbury Town.

He won by a majority of one, and was contested because one person wrote “I’m voting for Brexit” which was counted as a CONSERVATIVE vote

Con:232
Indy: 231
LD: 112

thethethethethe · 03/05/2019 17:31

Apparently the LDs and Greens doing well, and UKIP and the Tories and Labour doing badly, means that the People want Brexit to happen asap (as per TM) Hmm

ContinuityError · 03/05/2019 17:33

With 30 councils left to show on the BBC website ... will the Cons hit -1200?

DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 17:34

With 30 councils left to show on the BBC website ... will the Cons hit -1200?

We live in hope ...

He won by a majority of one, and was contested because one person wrote “I’m voting for Brexit” which was counted as a CONSERVATIVE vote

Well, that's why we have electoral courts.

BestIsWest · 03/05/2019 17:39

Pmk after 600 posts.

Just emailed my excellent Remainer Labour MP to tell her that my EU vote will go to a Remain party as it doesn’t look like like Labour are likely to come off the fence on the right side. I have never voted for anyone else and I’m still a member. Only just though.

Iambuffy · 03/05/2019 17:47

No NI results yet?

The icing on the cake for me would be the dup getting a thrashing...

OublietteBravo · 03/05/2019 17:50

No NI results yet?

The icing on the cake for me would be the dup getting a thrashing...

The state broadcaster seems to be reporting NI results separately to those from England. Although I gather the DUP have just got their first openly gay councillor.

TalkinPaece · 03/05/2019 17:52

Sad that a seat was won with 19% of the vote

Glad that a Tory candidate friend of mine won her seat

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 17:55

LDEM +628 - far better than all predictions
GRN +170 - ditto
CON -1174 - worse than the worst prediction
LAB -84 - we know why

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 17:56

Oubliette NI only trickling in - I read it will be tomorrow before we have full results

DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 17:56

Elsewhere in Belfast, the DUP's group leader on the city council, Lee Reynolds, has lost his seat.

DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 17:59

CON -1174 - worse than the worst prediction

So, what does history tell us ?

Is May going to try and use the threat of a GE to ram the WA through (assuming the speaker allows it ?)

Is this the signal for a very nasty leadership challenge (no idea how) ?

Will marginal MPs suddenly have an epiphany ?

regardless of what happens, I can't see the EP elections being pulled now ...

Tanith · 03/05/2019 17:59

Tories have lost Guildford.
Still waiting for ours, but sounds like they may have lost that, too.

BercowsSilkTie · 03/05/2019 18:00

An openly gay DUP councillor? How does that work? I thought the DUP were against gay rights ? Maybe she's hoping to lead change from within but it seems an odd choice of candidate and party as I wouldn't have thought they'd be at all compatible. Good on her, I hope she brings their attitudes out of the dark ages.

OublietteBravo · 03/05/2019 18:00

Conservatives so close to -1200 Grin

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
NoWordForFluffy · 03/05/2019 18:00

I've just caught up after a day on the allotment. I can't believe that Labour and the Tories are spinning this to mean they need to speed Brexit up. Surely this is just public bravado and in private they're shitting themselves? Surely?!

Well bloody done to the LDs and Greens. I agree with a PP that the LDs must be well chuffed with their results against the Tories. 😁

NigellasGuest · 03/05/2019 18:00

What, if anything, does this indicate regarding EU elections? Anyone more au fait than me who can suggest?

I voted LD for the first time ever yesterday. LD won in my area quite decisively. Not sure who to vote for in Euros, LD or ChangeUk.

Wakemeuuuup · 03/05/2019 18:02

Tories now -1200

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 18:02

They've just hit - 1200...

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