Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

[RedToothBrush]

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

DG Certainly not a century
and not just the UK - this cultural divide is across the Western world

The next 20 years will be crucial for the West, but if we get No Deal, I expect the UK to fairly quickly either disintegrate or Rejoin
Maybe our role will be to be held up as a horrible warning, like Brexit so far

-1033 ... in v bad result territory for CON
+567 is dream territory for LDems

The People’s Vote campaign has released figures showing the swing away from Labour to either the Greens or to the Lib Dems in certain council areas. It is keen to highlight these figures because they boost the People’s Vote argument that Labour has been losing votes to parties that unequivocally back a second referendum. (See 2.45pm.) Here are the figures as calculated by People’s Vote

Barnsley: 17.3% swing from Labour to LDs

Coventry: 2% swing from Labour to Greens

Derby: 6.2% swing from Labour to LDs

Dudley: 1.4% swing from Labour to LDs

NE Lincolnshire: 2.7% swing from Labour to LDs

Oldham: 2.8% swing Labour to LDs

Peterborough: 6.9% swing Labour to LDs; 2.7% swing Labour to Greens

Sunderland: 13.4% swing Labour to LDs; 10.9% swing Labour to Greens

Tories seem to have lost mainly to LDems
Labour to Greens

Although I see the above post is half and half !

Must do a check when all results in

Norwich City Council lab hold but lab loses 5 seats to Green Party

(no conservative councillors and Lib Dems held 3 seats)

Sorry 4 seats to Green Party in Norwich from Labour

have any NI councils declared yet? The Britain elects twitter feed hasn't updated in ages.

Some bloke in Dudley BBC vox pop saying we're not going to get Brexit because people are "scared to go it alone". Why do you reckon that might be, sir???

Although I see the above post is half and half
And in what were very Leave supporting areas. Sunderland!! Dudley!

Thought they aren't voting in NI?

This isn't "like" how wars start. It is how wars start. There was less difference between Protestants and Catholics at the start of the Reformation than Brexiteers and Remainers now.

On the plus side, the British never mustered une guerre de religion as they cba.

Now we have obesity and Netflix on our side.

Thought they aren't voting in NI?
I thought they were in NI - but not in Wales and Scotland?

NI results just starting to trickle through on the BBC News website.

pretty will be pleased - the only Scottish contest afaik:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-48147605

SNP have regained overall control of Dundee City Council after winning a by-election called after the death of a Labour councillor.

Both the Commission and the members remain divided over wisdom of granting a further extension, as they were at last summit. The predominant view - most govts, Tusk, Juncker - is grant it, in the hope that sceptics will fear losing Brexit & so finally vote for May's deal. /2

In other words, give them enough rope and they’ll trip,

I’m extremely heartened by the LD swing. Supports my resolve to vote LD in a GE, but Tories and Labour would be ill-advised to push for one now.

Still no results here (all 40 council seats and the mayoral office up for grabs).

On the plus side, the British never mustered une guerre de religion as they cba.

I think there's a good case that the British civil war was a disguised religious war.

Chris Mason@ChrisMasonBBC

Sir John Curtice on Lib Dem gains:

"In line with a longstanding pattern of British politics, for every seat that the Lib Dems are gaining from Labour they are winning two seats from the Cons."
....
The Con to Lib Dem swing in wards where they were the top 2 parties is running at 13% from our data - compared to 5% for all key wards.

This is one of the reasons why there are lots of LD gains and Con losses

Toured closing in on -1100. LibDems getting close to +600.

Jim Pickardd@PickardJE* (FT) 😂

it's increasingly clear that the British public want Brexit completed, or maybe reversed, or perhaps neither or both

-1111 CON !

I’m extremely heartened by the LD swing.

Me too ... certainly happy to vote LD for the Euros.

Could this be a manifestation of the increased pace of change ? Rather than a generation in the wilderness, just a 4 year high-school blip ?

Just think, if May hadn't called the 2017 election, we'd have been out of the EU by now. Which I am sure Tories are painfully aware of ....

Toured closing in on -1100. LibDems getting close to +600
Luvverly.

@afneil
When the Tories said they could lose 1,000 seats, that was expectations management. They've now lost over 1,000 seats. Overnight was not bad for the Tories. The day has been a bloodbath.

No option but lib/lab/SNP coalition in GE.