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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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JasperRising · 03/05/2019 14:16

@Peregrina is there anything publicly out there about the southoxon conservatives falling out? Does it have anything to do with the non-party political Better South Oxfordshire people who suddenly leafleted up with a day to go? I was never going to vote for them so haven't paid much attention to what they are up to.

I was pleased that my part of South Oxon went lib dem - although I believe we are a remain area I suspect the vote was much about the expressway and housing proposals round here.

I live in hope that come a general election we might get a non Tory MP but even if these political times that might be asking a bit much of one of their longest held seats...

Clavinova · 03/05/2019 14:19

jasjas1973
Why are the LibDems being investigated by the IOC?

Oh yes, ICO!

Personally i think hiding a receipt for a coat that cost £279 should be an imprisonable offence, immoral behavior (sic)

I will probably be let off with a caution - if he ever finds out. Wink

NoYo · 03/05/2019 14:21

Roll on the EU elections Grin

TheMShip · 03/05/2019 14:23

Nice thread here on Twitter from Will Jennings with plots (@lonelyplanetmum for your chart thread when all data in?):

twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124169461672697857?s=20

TheElementsSong · 03/05/2019 14:24

I'm sure we're really genuinely concerned about too much pale skin colour of Europeans, and all this Brexitatious omnishambles is being conducted for the benefit of people with more melanin Hmm

Oh wait, until they perhaps attempt to vote, or express a supposedly unpatriotic opinion... then we'll be reminded, I'm sure, that these same people we're sooooo concerned about have got funny surnames, or were born abroad, or have dual nationality etc etc.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 14:27

Theresa May heckled at Welsh Conservative conference (with video)

"Why don't you resign?" shouts audience member

BBC has spoken to heckler, Stuart Davies.
He's a former Tory cllr and press officer for Boris Johnson. Hmm

"All she's doing is making a mess of things.
If she's given a choice of two things, she always picks the wrong one and she's picked the wrong idea with Brexit."
< she has indeed. Brexit is the wrong idea >

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124276457977647106

OhYouBadBadKitten · 03/05/2019 14:29

Tories lost Mole Valley!

It's amusing listening to Labour and the Tories desperately trying to say that these losses are normal and not that bad.

LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 14:32

Shock drawing lots ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-kent-48123203

Tories win seat after tied result in Tunbridge Wells
Drama at Tunbridge Wells, where they had to draw lots to determine the winner of the Paddock Wood West seat.

Conservative Matthew Bailey and Labour's Raymond Moon both received the same number of votes - 289 - but Mr Bailey was elected after the pair drew lots.

The Tories have regained control of the borough council, although not all results are yet in.

bellinisurge · 03/05/2019 14:32

"No more or less than anyone else - but I do think white EU citizens can be a bit hypercritical - diversity often means white people from different countries."

Diversity in UK means anyone who isn't from a British tradition . Which, shock horror, can include white people.

Clavinova · 03/05/2019 14:33

TheElementsSong
all this Brexitatious omnishambles is being conducted for the benefit of people with more melanin

That's more or less what Nigel Farage said on Brexit Party launch day..

Runningintothesunset · 03/05/2019 14:33

Via BBC - the numbers of spoilt ballots in some places is quite remarkable...

A few more spoilt ballot tallies...

Basildon – 796
Bath & NE Somerset - 331
Brentwood - 272
Castle Point - 414
Chelmsford - 539
Folkestone & Hythe - 637
Great Yarmouth - 968
North Norfolk - 563
Sunderland – 309
Swindon - 825
Tendring – 600

prettybird · 03/05/2019 14:34

I have a very funny surname - it's such old German that even Germans find it unusual! Grin it's also why I didn't change it when I got married as it is so distinctive

....but at least I am supposedly descended from Henry VIII on my mum's side Wink

Dh is the one who is supposedly 100% Scottish, but his black eyes and olive skin suggest a shipwrecked Spaniard somewhere in there! Grin

EweSurname · 03/05/2019 14:34

Any chance this could be applied to the rest of the seats, including those that were lost?

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 14:38

So far, net changes:

CON -598
LAB -57
LDEM +371
GRN +80
UKIP -12
Others +119

I expected UKIP to gain quite a few Tory seats, with BREX not standing
They didn't - they have the vocal street thugs, but they are finished as a mass political party

LDems+GRN, the Remain parties, gaining over 450 seats so far

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 14:40

Now CON -620, losing a lot more now

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 14:46

Now even Baldrick (blackadder actor tony robinson ) has left Labour in disgust !

Tony Robinson@Tony_Robinson

I’ve left the Labour Party after nearly 45 years of service at Branch, Constituency and NEC levels,partly because of it’s continued duplicity on Brexit,
partly because of it’s antisemitism,
but also because its leadership is complete shit.

BercowsSilkTie · 03/05/2019 14:47

Wow!

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
prettybird · 03/05/2019 14:49

So far, according to these projections of Good/Bad

CON
Good = -300
Bad = -1000

LAB
Good = +300
Bad = +100

LDM
Good = +500
Bad = +200

UKIP
Good = -50
Bad = -150

GRN
Good = +50
Bad = -1

....the Conservatives aren't quite yet as bad as the worst case scenario, so will claim vindication for their approach and that they "just need to get on with it" Confused, Labour is in meltdown but in denial Hmm, the LibDems look well on course to get their "Good" scenario Smile, the Greens must be over the moon Grin and UKIP are dead --but we knew that anyway-

However, I don't think any major conclusions can be drawn yet about the outcome of the EP elections - not least because the Remain vote could end up being split Sad except in the Scotland Wink

LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 14:49

Bercow - exactly, how they aren't reporting it as a win for remain over leave parties is odd. Seems to only work one way that spin Hmm

lonelyplanetmum · 03/05/2019 14:50

Thanks to TheMship for the charts tip off. Very good charts! Do Feel free to screen shot and post on the chart thread or if not I may get a chance later.. Very interesting that the pattern for Labour is so very less clear-cut than the Tory losses.

Those charts suggest that although Labour are performing marginally worse in Leave-voting wards there is very little Labour variation based on previous Brexit voting pattern- plus some LibDems swings in Leave areas...

EngTech · 03/05/2019 14:56

Come the European Elections at the end of the month, now that will be interesting 😳😳

woman19 · 03/05/2019 15:02

@adampayne26
I wonder whether Change UK will reconsider its refusal to ever form an electoral alliance with the Lib Dems, given what a historically healthy position the latter is going to find itself in once the final results are in.

looking like a great result for lib dems today.

woman19 · 03/05/2019 15:06

Tories and Labour both tied on 28% of national vote, with Lib Dems on 19%, BBC says

its leadership is complete shit

As well as his brexist anti semitic and sexist proclivities, the fact is he is a horrendous frontman for any political party.

Awful speech maker, embarrassing at QT, hopeless and sexist in interviews.

He's just rubbish.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 15:10

I just noticed for Hartlepool:

first seat for ex-Kipper Anne Marie Waters’ extreme far-right racist party, the For Britain Movement

OublietteBravo · 03/05/2019 15:12

Greens and LibDems making a lot of gains between them. But I’m sure it is just a bizarre coincidence that these parties are pro-remain.