Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

[RedToothBrush]

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

Just shuddered over this 🕷

Fitting that Williamson has a "beloved pet tarantula" with a weird name
described in this profile when he became Defense SoS:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/britains-new-defence-secretary-has-stepped-out-of-the

His beloved pet tarantula Cronus, named after a Greek god who castrated and deposed his father and then ate his children to make sure they didn't oust him

but it's illegal
So he was rightfully convicted - and we may get another byelection soon because of it

I hope so too - having seen office juniors sacked for similar offences. Someone in his position should have known better - and it's not as though there is a shortage of advice available.

I hope there is a recall petition for him.

Clavinova "they clearly do the funds"

Difference is those funds are up front and we know where they come from, unlike the current BXP party or the various Leave campaigns in 2016.

tbh you seem a little bitter that Leave parties have done badly in these council elections.

His beloved pet tarantula Cronus, named after a Greek god who castrated and deposed his father and then ate his children to make sure they didn't oust him hmmshock

He clearly wants to be cast as a Bond villain.

Good point, songs

It is FOM that makes the difference for a lot of expats
Any WA without that is mostly as pants as No Deal - for us

Of course No Deal would be economic disaster for the UK, the worst possible outcome for the country, by far.

However, both Tory nd Labour so far oppose FOM and hence also membership of the SM

A historically white bloc of countries returns mostly white MEPs and commissioners hmm

I'm not the one who quoted an adaptation from Martin Luther King.

From the Guardian article:

"It is impossible to say how many EU politicians and staff come from a black and minority ethnic background, because the statistics do not exist. Moreover, many countries oppose collecting data on ethnicity or race, so no one can say how far the EU under represents non-white Europeans."

"The commission’s latest diversity strategy had no targets for promoting minority ethnic people, while promising action to support women, disabled people, the LGBTI community and older employees. Shaped by French bureaucratic tradition, the commission does not collect data on race, ethnicity or religion on the grounds of éqalité."

Ben Bradshaww@BenPBradshaw*

This was the first Electoral test of our policy of “constructive” ambiguity on Tory #brexitshambless^.

It showed that when you cower in the middle of the road on the biggest existential crisis facing Britain for generations you get squashed.

#FinalSay #PeoplesVote

the commission does not collect data on race, ethnicity or religion on the grounds of éqalité."

And ?
Different philosophy
If the UK wants quotas / monitoring, then it had decades to propose this approach
It hasn't

Clav - why are you soooo interested in the EU and representation of minorities?
It's not as if the UK, across business, employment, westminster etc etc is without some very substantial problems.

Perhaps try focusing on home grown problems instead of always blaming the EU.

Sorry to be miserable, but I think the Euros are going to give a very different result to today's.

Not sure this is a new Remain dawn.

Yay! another LD take over in Cantebury

Not sure this is a new Remain dawn

No- we will bring our divisions to the EU parliament. To be fair on Macron, that's really what the EU has been dreading and why he didn't want an extension.

"I have a dream that our children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their passports but by the content of their character

I took that as a national aspiration,
but if it is also woman's dream for the EU, then I thoroughly support it

It will take time, as integration in the UK has also taken decades, but let's work towards it by Remaining and proposing ways to make this happen

The UK didn't suggest this for the Commission itself either, over the previous 45 years, but no reason not to start playing this kind of inclusive rule now.

there is some nimbyism with all the house building going on, but also with the housing, people being priced out of London are moving in. Now they don't seem to know that they should vote for whatever wears a blue rosette - whether it's a person, a pig or a scarecrow, and they make up their minds how to vote

Tee hee. I live in a very safe (the safest?) Tory seat but they've been dealt a bloody nose this time around. As you say, people moving in who have their own opinions. One part of the area is still true blue but it's a lot more mixed elsewhere.

It's just trolling ...
I don't believe anyone who genuinely cares about representation of minorities would announce they will be voting BREX in the EP elections

The party is just Farage - not even with any members, no democracy, just supporters, who pay 25 quid for the privilege
(to support that one mysterious very large donation)

Farage who marched around at Dulwich College hanting "Gas the Jews"

Farage who told UKIP founder Alan Sked
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-founder-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster

"He wanted ex-National Front candidates to run and I said, 'I'm not sure about that,' and he said,
'There's no need to worry about the n@@ger vote. The n@g-n@gs will never vote for us.'"

jasjas1973
Difference is those funds are up front and we know where they come from

I don't think they have to declare their fund sources at the moment - the Brexit Party haven't yet (I don't think.)

The Lib Dems were fined £18,000 for breaches of campaign finance rules during the referendum - failing to provide proper receipts - I bought a £279 coat from Hobbs a few years ago and hid the receipt in case dh spotted it - so I know how that trick works.

www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/party-and-election-finance-to-keep/liberal-democrats-fined-18,000-for-breaches-of-campaign-finance-rules

The Lib Dems are also being investigated by the IOC;

“‘During the course of our investigation, we obtained information that the Liberal Democrats had sold the personal data of its party members to BSiE (Britain Stronger in Europe) for approximately £100,000.”

Sorry to be miserable, but I think the Euros are going to give a very different result to today's.

Agree the turnout is the big thing. Especially with low turnout in Leave areas. European elections will be very different if the turnout is better.

So quick summary from our local count.

We saw a massive massive swing from a traditional Hard Tory to Lib Dem and Independent. We are a district with a third/third/third voting pattern. We saw historical gains, building on what has been a gathering quiet momentum over the last two years. It was truly mind blowing in some wards. We even lost one actually rather useful Tory who is an effective councillor, by a large percentage.

In terms of spoilt votes. Around 30 per ward. Some wrote Brexit party on, the nature of spoiling was generally more angry than usual. Turn out held firm from last year averaging around 35% to 40%.

I'm in the south.

jasjas1973
Clav-why are you soooo interested in the EU and representation of minorities?

No more or less than anyone else - but I do think white EU citizens can be a bit hypercritical - diversity often means white people from different countries.

The even bigger thing will be the inclusion of BREX and to a lesser extent ChUK in the EP elections

The voting intent in polls is quite different with those 2 parties included

Also, of course, the EP elections ill naturally be focused on Brexit, not local issues

In other news, this t shirt arrived for me today. I'm probably a bit late to the party with this: -

Clav - not £6m, nor have they been referred to the National Crime Agency.

The Lib Dems are also being investigated by the IOC

Why are the LibDems being investigated by the IOC ? (International Olympic Committee)
Will Vince Cable be competing in the Sprint Triathlon, taking over from Alistair Brownlee?

Personally i think hiding a receipt for a coat that cost £279 should be an imprisonable offence, immoral behavior.

When a bloc is so overwhelmingly white, but with 28 different nationalities,
obviously diversity includes representing those nationalities fairly

The representatives that each country then chooses to send are either elected - MEPs - or civil servantss chosen by member countries.

The EU is understandably cautious about instructing member countries on the skin colour etc of the representatives they should send

Imagine the fury that would cause - especially to Farage & co !

At least the EP elections can't be as easily twisted by the MMS.

Getting very fed up with the "we must Brexit immediately" we seem to be getting as a result of the 80% of parties with Brexit in their manifesto LOOSING seats

Loads of Conservatives losing seats in Tunbridge Wells, including the council leader. 😀