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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 15:12

steve richardss@steverichards14*

The two bigger parties are in an impossible bind.

They cannot flourish until Brexit is resolved.

If there were resolution, both parties would split.

That is why at some point there'll be a referendum.
When parties are split over Europe they turn to this flawed device as a way through

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 15:16

I've read some Brexiters claiming Leavers were voting LDem & Green in protest, not realising they are Remain parties Hmm

These elitists calling voters ignorant ... Grin

In fact, LDems in particular have very high recognition now as a Remain party
and to be fair to them, being pro-EU is about the one policy they've stuck to over the decades

Palermonese · 03/05/2019 15:18

My surname appears in an episode of Inspector Montalbano ... I've extracted it and occasionally post it on my FB for the curious Grin.

It's interesting when I visit the US - especially NY or NJ ....

NigellasGuest · 03/05/2019 15:21

LAB -91
CON -821

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 15:25

Less than +100 seats was regarded as a bad night for Labour.

More than - 700 seats was regarded as a bad night for the Cons.

More than +500 seats was regarded as the top end of a good night for the LDs.

More than +50 seats for the Greens was regarded as a very good night.

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Clavinova · 03/05/2019 15:25

Tories lost Mole Valley!

Just looked at one of the wards in Mole Valley - the turnout was 42.2% - down from 71.9% in 2015. The Lib Dem candidate took the seat - but with slightly fewer votes than 2015.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 15:30

When headlines and photos on newspapers collide.

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
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ElenadeClermont · 03/05/2019 15:33

Momentum / Labour wins North of Tyne Combined Authority.

@Runningintothesunset Would you be able to post a link to spoilt ballot tallies, please? I can't find them. [sigh]

LoonvanBoon · 03/05/2019 15:35

RedToothBrush Grin

tobee · 03/05/2019 15:46

What are the odds on there being another referendum and the results being 51.9% leave 48.1% remain?

Place Bets Now!!

Runningintothesunset · 03/05/2019 15:48

The spoilt tallies cake from the BBC live page, which were linking to this tweet (which I’ve just spotted is a daily mail reporter Hmm )

twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1124301563235897344?s=21

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 15:48

Paul Brand @paulbranditv
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn says following local election results there is a "huge impetus" on every MP to "get a deal done...parliament has to resolve this issue. I think that is very clear." Does this mean Labour will clinch a deal with Tories? Maybe.

Compare with

Channel 4 News @ channel4newd
"This is a difficult time for our party and these election results are a symptom of that."

Theresa May says the "simple message" from voters in the local elections was "just get on and deliver Brexit".

Corbyn and May agreeing on Brexit and coming up with this ridiculous spin.

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LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 15:50

Yup they are going to ham fist something through before they have to admit no one wants it.

I do wonder if this is all deliberate because they don't want to deal with the fallout.

ElenadeClermont · 03/05/2019 15:57

@Runningintothesunset Thank you.

Writing to my MP now.

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 03/05/2019 15:57

Im confused...as usual

So 80% of voters in the GE voted for a brexit party = they want to get on with it and brexit

Loads of seats change hands at local elections to remain parties = they want to get on with it and brexit

Confused

Is the difference the GE and local bit?

Cos it seems like 'you want brexit cos you voted for a brexit party should have voted for a remain party....oh you have voted for a remain party, oh thats because you are pissed off with no brexit....we'll make sure we brexit then'

prettybird · 03/05/2019 15:58

Both Labour and Conservative are really scraping the barrel with their spinning of the result Confused

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 16:00

Context: % of spoilt votes vs votes cast

e.g. The tweet gave 825 spoilt votes for Swindon

but Swindon had over 72,000 valid votes, so a bit over 1%^ were spoilt,^
So while it's an increase, it's increasing a tiny # votes to a still tiny #

EweSurname · 03/05/2019 16:02

Laura Kuenssberg
‏*@bbclaurak*
Wow - with lots of caveats, BBC PNS calculation suggests if these elections had happened across the country, the Tories and Labour would be TIED on 28%.

TheElementsSong · 03/05/2019 16:04

Cos it seems like 'you want brexit cos you voted for a brexit party should have voted for a remain party....oh you have voted for a remain party, oh thats because you are pissed off with no brexit....we'll make sure we brexit then'

That's basically it. The immovable object is "... therefore Brexit" and pretty much anything and be inserted before the "..." Hmm

DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 16:07

We passed through the looking glass a while back. Now everything is nothing and nothing is everything. Yes, it was fun to start with, to shout "fake news" and pump nonsense through the lower levels of the interwebs. But the rising tide of noise has permanently silenced the noise, and we're less connected than our parents generation.

So losing over 500 seats isn't in anyway a Tory problem. It's the fucking stupid voters. Not gaining a truckload of Labour seats isn't their problem. It's the man in the moon. Or climate change. Or smaller portions in Ramsgates Kent-famous pencil-sharpener museum.

All oiled along by the mainstream media who wouldn't recognise journalism if it hit them in the wallet.

I think folk had better start praying for a long wet summer. Maybe I'll have a word with the Hindi community in London. They have form for starting deluges ....

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 16:07

Seems very unreliable, if there are 2 new parties who would be in a GE
Also tricky when Scotland & Wales didn't vote, just chunks of England (NI not included in the calculation)

However, this is how they calculate the BBC PNS:

https://electionsetc.com/2019/05/01/calculating-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-and-projected-house-of-commons-in-2019/

tobee · 03/05/2019 16:07

God! Just been shouting obscenities at new mayor of north Tyne Jamie Driscoll. Apparently everyone's happy with Corbyn, they love that Labour is anti austerity and Brexit is basically only of interest to the media!!!!! TWAT!

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 03/05/2019 16:08

That's probably right thelements

We had a spate of saying brexit as the answer of most questions at home

Child : Mummy my hand hurts

Me: That'll be brexit

Child: Why have we run out of magnums

Me: Brexit

But as ds2 said a few years ago as he watched his crazy golf ball bouncing past the fence and into the water...NOT SO FUNNY NOW IS IT!!!!

DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 16:09

Wow - with lots of caveats, BBC PNS calculation suggests if these elections had happened across the country, the Tories and Labour would be TIED on 28%.

Which these threads have been saying for the past 18 months.