Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

[RedToothBrush]

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

woman19
"I have a dream that our children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their passports but by the content of their character."

That's a very noble sentiment adapted from Martin Luther King - except that the EU Commission itself is very white - the UK Parliament is much more diversified.

All 28 European commissioners are white and only three of the 751 MEPs are black.

www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/29/eu-is-too-white-brexit-likely-to-make-it-worse

I know I'm brain dead with exhaustion but clav is upset that a political party which has fundraised is making concisive decisions on how to spend the money in order to inform voters to vote for them? Whhhyyy? What do you want political parties to do quietly exist and hoard cash? The lib dems push hard to raise funds I'm not even a member and sometimes get daily emails asking for money. YABU.

Having said that, in Germany at least, Brit expats who have never voted before are suddenly taking interest

Vale of white horse goes to lib dems.

"the EU Commission itself is very white"

The UK has had largescale non-white immigration since 1949 - and it took decades to see this reflected in the HoC
I remember all those years when it was all-white
then the milestones of the first black MP, first Muslim, first minister ....

Many EU countries have an almost entirely white population, or did have until comparatively recently

It takes time for new immigrant communities to provide the most qualified civil servants & politicians, whom member countries can send to Brussles.

@tnewtondunn
First Lab MP goes public to call out Corbyn personally. @coyleneil tells me: “The No1 negative for Labour was Jeremy Corbyn. Brexit was 2nd according to party campaigners up and down the country. Anyone who still doubts it needs to get off the keyboard and get on some doorsteps”

More of this please.

Germany at least, Brit expats who have never voted before are suddenly taking interest
How very dare they, BCF
I see pretty strong( and supportive and well informed) local pro EU/UK citizens' groups forming in some other EU countries, is that the case in Germany too? Hope so........

hazard are you ok?

Many EU countries have an almost entirely white population, or did have until comparatively recently

When Merkel generously, humanely and bravely gave sanctuary to 1 million Syrian refugees? I understand they have mainly not only integrated brilliantly, but provided an economic bounce to German economy?

A historically white bloc of countries returns mostly white MEPs and commissioners

Shock horror

I live in the constituency which iirc, returned the first Muslim MP back in the 90s.

Farage and the Tory Brexit Ultras are the ones who use deliberately racist language, hate speech, racist posters

Totally different to politicians like Amber Rudd who are out of touch, or just make unimportant slips of the tongue which get blown up
(I got into that on another thread with a few very woke folk)

Racism is not just a British problem; it is a populist problem in the West

We see Farage's fascist chums in the AfD, Front National etc expressing similar racist views
Trumpers / GOP in the US are the worst of all, with their cosying up to White Supremacists and Neo-Nazi terrorists

Ooh a leave voter interested in the funding of a political party...
Just not dark money from Russia/Banks targeting 3 million people using psyops via illegal means for the Leave vote, obvs . Only the right sort of information for the right sort of vote. Even if some of the the people voting weren't quite the right sort (un-educated or skilled) it will in fact help the right sort ultimately.

Would serve these people right to be stuck on a small island together.

Voter turnout here 40-25% in the 3 wards

Compared to the locals in 2015 massive drop in turnout.

Could be dissatisfaction or is it the pilling station move????

My PILs were incredibly racist. No point in talking about it. They were right and no other position was possible.
They were very concerned about carrying on the family name. It’s a bog standard, quite common name and most definitely no inherited wealth or title goes with it. Not even a house.
They are no longer with us but I feel a certain pleasure that, due to my family, the only people who can carry on the family name are mixed race.

I know I'm brain dead with exhaustion but clav is upset that a political party which has fundraised is making concisive decisions on how to spend the money in order to inform voters to vote for them? Whhhyyy?

I'm not upset - BigChocFrenzy said the Lib Dems didn't have any money - they are saying on their website;

"The Liberal Democrats have dedicated more money, more time and more of our key campaigners to stopping Brexit than any other party."

"We’ve sent millions of leaflets to key voters across the UK, explaining why the people deserve the final say."

"We've reached many millions of people online with campaign advertising."

"All in the name of growing support for a People’s Vote and changing minds."

They clearly do have the funds.

My parents ward has switched from UKIP to independent (and Craven has gone from Tory to NOC).

To be fair Iambuffy - those council elections that happen at the same time as GEs (as they did in 2015) generally have higher turnouts than the ones that happen when it is just the council elections.

woman tbh, with only 120k Brits in Gemany, even after recent increases, the activity is very low-scale.
afaik, the only Brit expat group of much size / significance is in Berlin

Probably the lack of urgency is because the Geman govt promised early on that everyone resident on Brexit Day can stay
(and we trust the German govt not to renege)
We have a lower % of pensioners than Spain, so healthcare afterwards is not such an issue.

There is a small British in German online site with handy info, but not much on the ground
and the much larger British in Europe, which does a lot of useful lobbying

LonelyTiredandLow
Just not dark money from Russia/Banks targeting 3 million people

I wouldn't worry too much about that - according to the Electoral Commission, the official campaign spending was:

•Remain: £19,309,588 (+£9 million spent on the government's, "We advise you to vote Remain leaflet).

•Leave: £13,332,569

www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/campaign-spending-and-donations-at-referendums/campaign-spending-at-the-eu-referendum

If you were to get involved Clavinova, you would find out that the LibDems don't have the money, and hence the constant appeals for more. So what they can achieve is dictated in part by how much money comes in and how much time the volunteers are prepared to give up.

So 'clearly' you are just spouting an ill informed opinion.

the official campaign spending was:

Most of us are concerned about the unofficial, illegal spending. But since it went the Brexiters way, this doesn't trouble them at the moment. The pendulum could swing in the other direction and they would be the first to start whining.

Clavinova posted "spending millions of pounds (desperately) trying to enlist the support of EU citizens"

I said that all the main parties are short of money
and the smaller parties probably even more so

and that I doubt if they could spare millions on just one group - how many of the 3 million are adults eligible to vote

Clavinova does seem to have a problem with democracy, from the postings I get the impression that only a select few should be allowed to vote. Funny that when it was supposedly a vote about democracy and what don't we understand?

In the referendum, when one side uses illegal money to fund psyops targeted using illegally held data,
then that matters - legal funding doesn't

The Tories have historically nearly always had far higher party funds than Labour, from zillionaire donors.
That's legal and we don't overturn elections because of it

That Tory MP who was convicted recently over election expenses lied about only a few hunred quid,
but it's illegal
So he was rightfully convicted - and we may get another byelection soon because of it

North of Tyne Combined Authority

Full results break down for first round.
No one hit 50%.
Jamie Driscoll (Lab): 62,034 - Momentum
Charlie Hoult (Con): 45,494
John McCabe (Ind): 31,507 - Blairite
John Appleby (Lib Dem): 23,768
Hugh Jackson (Ukip): 20,131

Again, why is my MP trying to attract Kippers?!

Also, the 3 millions/ 4 on both sides (counting Brits in the EU) have been mostly ignored really. Let's not forget how quickly both parties have been willing to declare losing FOM a "win". If they wanted any sort of support from EU citizens they wouldn't say that!