Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

[RedToothBrush]

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

My brother did an Ancestry DNA test and got the result Ireland 86%, Scandinavia 9%, Iberian peninsula 4%, all else

Corbyn wants a GE, because he thinks the right will be split between Con & BREX
which under FPTP could deliver him a large majority on a plate

Older Labour would bitterly remember the 1983 election when the left - and centre - were split but totalled over 50% of the vote,
but MrsT won a seat landslide and then swung British politics to the right for decades

Problem with that cunning (Milne) plan is if many Labour Remainers split off to vote for LDems & Greens, like yesterday

This might be a good thing. It's about the only thing which would make both the Tories and Labour buck up their ideas, and get a decent PR system in.

After the dismal failure of 2010-2015 to change anything, I did wonder if somehow (don't ask me how, I can only think "woo" ...) the electoral system would continue delivering no majority parliaments as a way of somehow trying to hammer it into the parties heads that the ancien regime is gone.

Ironically, laying down a "Brexit" layer in our political and cultural stratigraphy is starting to make it look like we're locked into coalitions for the foreseable future. In which case Mays faux "reaching out" might have to start getting real.

Labour has 40 councils Tories 37 so far. Tories have lost 17 councils to labours 3.

Tories just lost 31 seats in Somerset and west taunton. Both councils used to be Tory now as these councils now combined ( like mine) is now Lib Dem win.

^My brother did an Ancestry DNA test and got the result Ireland 86%, Scandinavia 9%, Iberian peninsula 4%, all else

My area results not in still.

as long as we are given an actual figure of how many UK-based EU citizens vote in the EU elections - if it is going to be viewed as a quasi second referendum

I have a dream that our children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their passports but by the content of their character.

Only to you 

Nope. My eyes roll back so far when I see your posts that I can see Scotland. And you're French! Well, well, well.

Ni Ireland is a microcosm of the UK. I wonder if we will see something interesting there...I think Alliance and Green are making a strong showing.
Hope the DUP suffer a wipeout.

N Ireland

I expect the Human was one of the

What! Less than 1% I meant.

BigChocFrenzy
"spending millions of pounds (desperately) trying to enlist the support of EU citizens" ?
Who is ?

The LIb Dems for one.

"Over the next month, we are preparing to:"

•Reach half a million EU nationals to encourage them to register to vote in local elections;
•Deliver leaflets with our message to 1 million homes.
•Write to 100,000 key voters to encourage them to take action and support our campaign;
•Target 2 million people with adverts online to add to our 250,000 campaign supporters.

Lots of hung councils. More division more divisive council meetings, more conflict ( sigh)

It's amazing how many shallowly polite and articulate ways somebody can "get at" people for having foreign taint.

I was talking to my MIL once about class, asking her when she thought I and the dcs would fit (i was trying to understand who this class thingy was working!). My MIL told me that my dcs (whose father is pure breed british, were born in Britain and have always lived in britain) were and would always be ‘international’... it’s her own grand children :( and yes she is a strong leaver too.

At least the LibDems aren't spending taxpayers money on non-existent ferry contracts and hush payments out of court.

The LIb Dems for one.

Or in reality, individual LibDem supporters. Perhaps we aren't allowed to choose how to spend our own money?

Lots of hung councils. More division more divisive council meetings, more conflict

Or compromise ? You know. That think that's supposed to be the preserve of the English ?

That's fine - as long as we are given an actual figure of how many UK-based EU citizens vote in the EU elections - if it is going to be viewed as a quasi second referendum.

Seeing the very low percentage of people from the EU living in the U.K., do you think it matters??
Or are you assuming that actually, like it has been in the last 3 years, the population is so divided in the middle that those pesky 2 millions people can make a difference in the result??

Some councils aren't starting their counts until today Sos.

That's fine - as long as we are given an actual figure of how many UK-based EU citizens vote in the EU elections - if it is going to be viewed as a quasi second referendum.

My cousin in Tenerife says the ex-pat Brit community is incredibly motivated to vote where she lives.

To vote? Everyone here still believes in politics? I lost belief years ago after working in government showed me exactly what they mean by democratic process...the people with money tell us the options that all benefits them and you vote. As for Brexit, it was obviously a load of rubbish, did anyone actually think that the establishment would allow such a vote if one or the other results ended in chaos for them? This is not how government works. You don't hedge your bets in government, you don't bet at all, you accept its rigged and collect your winnings. Honestly, you're better off following the soaps than investing in following politics.

"Reach half a million EU nationals to encourage them to register to vote in local elections"

If that costs them millions, then they are doing it very poorly - and they don't have millions to spend on 1/wnmillion voters

The other points don't sound like actions specifically to reach E27 citizens, but maybe the whole article would give that context

However, main point is:
all parties will target groups where they think they can gain votes, especially groups that have low voting figures - typical of expats

Tory losses now 514 labour 70. Lib dem gains 335, green 59 and Ind 237. Labour lost overall control of Cannock chase.