Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

[RedToothBrush]

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

What a surprise - another leave voter who can claim EU citizenship when this clusterfuck hits the fan ... having deprived those of us who are truly British of ours.

@Clavinova so only the best, none of the uneducated rif-raf. Righto.
You do sound so shallowly polite

What are your opinions on welfare while we are here?

Of course William "Rufus" (who died in mysterious circumstances probably killed by a proto-Anglo-Saxon Kipper ... Breghsit meanes Breghsit ?) was actually Norman anyway. So originally from the Scandiwegen neck of the woods. Like latter day Yorkshire folk.

From what I've read, turn of the first millennium French people would have been horrified that we confused Normans and French.

Sicily has a good solid Norman heritage too. (And a Muslim one too. Which they perversely seem rather proud of. Typical Europeans).

Norman means "men of the North"... They were feared invaders in much of Western France. I spent my childhood in a small town where a medieval cross near the river still marked the spot of their arrival.

One thing I do object to is what I consider to be an underhand way of tying to overturn democracy.

This is so tiresome, Clavinova. Why is an advisory referendum the only form of democracy you want to be cast in stone for all time? We have just had local elections, which have shown that the public mood is not the same as it was 4 years ago in many parts of the country. We have General Elections every five years or less. Should we cancel those too because the results don't suit you? If we were to have a 'People's vote the Leavers should surely win hands down, and then May, or whoever would have the mandate they need.

We have had virtually 3 years now with May and the Tories going hell for leather for a hard Remain, and so far failing. Don't blame May for being a one time Remainer - blame the Leavers for not getting one of their own elected as PM. Then we have mardy bums like Rees-Mogg who doesn't stand for office himself, but complains about everything that May has managed to negotiate, dressed up with a veneer of politeness.

Is Clavinova trying some JRM schtick now? Can't keep up.

In the horrible histories sketch he's very definitely killed by another Norman knight
The Norman knights all abandoned him in the woods and it was an Anglo Saxon peasant who found him and took him to town on the back on their cart.

Although ... considering the enslavement, stealing of the land and the harrowing of the North - not sure it's fair to class an Anglo- Saxon as a kipper just because they might want the Norman king dead.

Wow, some of you stayed up all night, that's dedication, thanks. I'm happy to see Lib Dems and Greens doing so well in local elections.

It's unfortunate isn't it, that many of the electors who must also be JRM's constituents don't seem to like what his party is doing. How remiss of them!

then why are they spending millions of pounds (desperately) trying to enlist the support of EU citizens?

Because they are entitled to vote . That's pesky democracy for you - you don't just choose who should and shouldn't vote.

It's quite encouraging in a perverse way, that the results appear to be so open to interpretation. (Is this politics or astrology ?). If nothing else, it makes it impossible for the parties to know what to do. And ultimately, as we can see. Brexit delayed is going to be Brexit denied.

The only clear thing I can see is a GE called now is simply going to return a no majority parliament.

Again.

From my reading of the death of William Rufus (and if you're in the New Forest, it's worth a look-see at the Rufus stone) it was all a bit vague as to what really happened. Hunting accident or not ?

The biggest clue (I think) is the fact it really didn't register as an event, and life simply carried on without too much disruption. Although that could be down to the top-class civil service of the Anglo Saxons which pretty much greased the Norman invasion into power.

Then we have mardy bums like Rees-Mogg who doesn't stand for office himself, but complains about everything that May has managed to negotiate, dressed up with a veneer of politeness.

To be honest I don't really understand the endgame here. It's clear by now that parliament won't let a no deal happen. On top of that, despite Trump's gung-ho rhetoric, the US will not condone a breach of the GFA. Hence, the mahoosive trade deal with the US cannot realistically happen so what's the point?
It can't even be immigration anymore:
www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/02/britons-more-sold-on-immigration-benefits-than-other-europeans

Like latter day Yorkshire folk.

The only viking DNA found in any meaningful numbers is in the Orkney Islands - which were Norwegian until pretty recently.
Most English people have between 10-40% Saxon DNA and 60-90% Celtic or earlier DNA. The people who live in the ancient Celtic kingdom of Elmet (Leeds) are more celtic/earlier than their surrounding neighbours.

Yorkshire people are not vikings - no matter what they may like to pretend.

Songsofexperience
You may or may not know it but this makes you French
No, I didn't - thanks for that!

Peregrina
This is so tiresome, Clavinova.

Only to you.

I was thinking of sending my little gem to the Daily Fail - anonymously of course.

Because they are entitled to vote

It makes more sense when you realise that the unspoken subtext is that they shouldn't be allowed to vote because they're tainted by foreign.

PMK.

Trying to catch up and trying not to cry at the cancer treatment news. Horrible.

Henry Zeffman
‏*@hzeffman*
Understand Boris Johnson did vote in the local elections - in South Oxfordshire, where he has a home.

(Cons lost to NOC after Lib Dem surge)

Esther Webber
‏*@estwebber*
More Esther Webber Retweeted Henry Zeffman
This is legit great. He votes, tweets, then realises drawing attention to his other home is not is not the best look

Or if you REALLY want to go back to the roots, Brits are Basques:

www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/3348004/What-does-being-British-mean-Ask-the-Spanish.html

😁

The only clear thing I can see is a GE called now is simply going to return a no majority parliament.

This might be a good thing. It's about the only thing which would make both the Tories and Labour buck up their ideas, and get a decent PR system in. They would suddenly find it quite attractive to be a big party in a proper coalition.

"spending millions of pounds (desperately) trying to enlist the support of EU citizens" ?

Who is ?
Parties are so broke, even the main parties struggled to find millions for their entire campaign these locals
Same problem for the EP elections

The Remain-supporting parties - LDems, Greens, ChUK - have far less money than even the main ones

Remainers are concentrating on trying to get a PV
E27 citizens - unless they have dual British / Commonwealth nationality - won't be eligible to vote in that

Only to you

Oh no, it’s not only to Peregrina.

The South Oxfordshire Tories have had a big falling out recently - much to the wry amusement of all the other local parties! So we knew they were heading for a fall because the electorate are believed not to like parties at war with themselves. A pleasing result, not wholly unsurprising - there is some nimbyism with all the house building going on, but also with the housing, people being priced out of London are moving in. Now they don't seem to know that they should vote for whatever wears a blue rosette - whether it's a person, a pig or a scarecrow, and they make up their minds how to vote.

prettybird
Because they are entitled to vote

That's fine - as long as we are given an actual figure of how many UK-based EU citizens vote in the EU elections - if it is going to be viewed as a quasi second referendum.

TatianaLarina
I'm pleased to hear that I'm annoying you as well.