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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 10:40

DGR - to be fair to the people in Northants, their elections were cancelled.

There's a deep philosophical question tucked away in that exchange as to how much it's fair to expect an average Clapham Omnibus commuter to be aware of in their daily life ? On the one hand, it might be a charming "and finally...." news story when someone pops up who had no idea there was an election on and only realise when they got the kids to school and it was closed. But on the other hand, I'm not sure I'm so comfortable with a representative elected by such people ??????

Even my DF - who has never voted ever in the UK (still can't in General Elections) - knows when there are elections on.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 10:40

Northamptonshire: This County Isn’t Voting Today Amid A Local Authority Financial Crisis

Voters disenfranchised by disastrous Tory mismanagement

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/this-local-council-isnt-voting-today-because-they-dont-have-enough-money-to-run-elections_uk_5ccac7b7e4b0913d078d3631?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics

District council elections have been postponed in Northamptonshire.

What Does The Delay Mean For Sitting Councillors?

They will get more time in office, extending a four-year term to possibly five.

LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 10:41

@Clavinova - a leaver who agrees with FOM?

Sostenueto · 03/05/2019 10:42

I'm sure LibDems are celebrating. The big test MEP elections with tiggers and brexit party entering the fray. All I see at the moment is fragmentation. Yes Tory and labour damaged and other parties gained a lot but the fragmentation will continue but rather than destroy the 2 main parties completely we have loads of little parties. So for a minute can't see where this is advantageous for real change.

woman19 · 03/05/2019 10:42

Brexist racism is just tawdry and ill informed. Sad.

The Green party says it has its best ever election night. The party has won 42 new seats, and is represented on 16 new councils. In a press statement Jonathan Bartley, the party’s co-leader, said

Smile

Skint authority/ (country soon) cancels Elections. Handy solution. Wink DGR
www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/30/no-local-elections-northamptonshire-county-council-this-week-how-convenient

Sostenueto · 03/05/2019 10:42

Gateshead held by labour.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 10:43

To be fair, some Leavers are in favour of FOM

  • they know it is good for business and good for general quality of life, supplying skilled professionals that we lack
DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 10:44

If Labour did want to do well in the EP elections, then 3 weeks is plenty of time to make that decision and carry it out.

But I'm guessing they won't.

So I'm currently looking at a LD vote. Pleased they have done well.

Dontlickthetrolley · 03/05/2019 10:44

@BigChocFrenzy - that's us!!!

It would have been interesting had we have been "allowed" to vote as our MP is also a local councillor but as an ERG member and NO DEAL in a leave area, I'm sure his seat would have been safe.

LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 10:46

@BigChoc just shows everyone had a different version of Brexit to me!

DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 10:47

To be fair, some Leavers are in favour of FOM

That's Leavers not the batshit-for-brains Brexiteers ...

TheElementsSong · 03/05/2019 10:47

I never said Clavi was impolite. The operative word was "shallow". Politely going on about people's foreign birth, or foreign-sounding surnames, or how they're corrupt because they have foreign funding for their work, is undoubtedly polite. A pretty facade.

LoonvanBoon · 03/05/2019 10:49

Turnout was v v low in some seats in Hull, which is quite close to me - 13% and 16% in a couple of wards. Much higher (42% I think) in one of the wards with a lot of students. The Council there has stayed Labour controlled with Lib Dems in 2nd and just a couple of Tories - but there were no UKIP councillors standing (strong pro leave vote in Hull in 2016) and obviously no Brexit party yet.

About 30% turnout in my Yorkshire town but don't know what the usual figures are. Our Council has stayed strongly Tory controlled despite some dodgy dealings & appearances in Private Eye's 'Rotten boroughs' column. Labour lost the few seats they had on the Council.

In my ward though the Tories had fewer votes than last time, Labour were much closer behind them & the Lib Dems did much better too. The Lib Dems won all the seats in one of the wards in my town, but generally it's still the 'anything with a blue rosette' mentality round here.

Feeling v worried about the EU elections. I still have some sympathy with Labour in their lame attempts at continuing to fudge the PV issue (though none for Corbyn personally), but it's clearly not working. I can't see really brexity types voting Labour now anyway, so losing the remain vote is going to be a disaster.

Songsofexperience · 03/05/2019 10:55

Some EU citizens will have decided that the best course of action is to take out British Citizenship, Clavinova. Are you going to object to that too?

Ha, indeed, been there done that.
Also on the subject of 'true Brit' and the criteria for it: swearing a solemn oath and pledge of loyalty to Queen and country ( as naturalised Brits have to do) is something that anyone who respects traditional values should accept as enough commitment and 'proof' of Britishness. If it's good enough for the Queen, it should be good enough for those 40%!

LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 10:56

More Tory losses in Folkestone and Hythe

BercowsSilkTie · 03/05/2019 10:58

Where can I find the turnout figures? Nothing showing with the results.

bellinisurge · 03/05/2019 11:01

@Tanith , Fish and Chips is from the Jewish immigrant community.

DGRossetti · 03/05/2019 11:04

Also on the subject of 'true Brit' and the criteria for it: swearing a solemn oath and pledge of loyalty to Queen and country ( as naturalised Brits have to do)

Which as a born citizen I've never had to do. And to be frank, I'm not going to start now. I bear her madge no ill-will. But (invokes inner Mr. T Grin) I ain't swearing no oath

icannotremember · 03/05/2019 11:07

Oh Clavinova, you think the politeness hides the reality don't you? Rather like JRM does. But trust me, we see through the veneer and know the ugliness underneath.

Clavinova · 03/05/2019 11:16

LonelyTiredandLow
Clavinova-a leaver who agrees with FOM?

Of course - for skilled professionals, entrepreneurs, students etc.- and seasonal permits (or whatever) for others.

TheElementsSong
One thing I do object to is what I consider to be an underhand way of tying to overturn democracy.

If the Remain camp are so certain that UK citizens have changed their minds about Brexit - then why are they spending millions of pounds (desperately) trying to enlist the support of EU citizens?

And yes, I do think anti-Brexit reports written by EU nationals/dual nationals or those funded by the EU should be taken with a pinch of salt. For example, I was reading the annual report of a so-called independent think tank the other day and noticed this little gem;

"That last option had looked implausible in June, when we held a roundtable on whether Brexit could be stopped, with John Kerr, the author of Article 50 and the CER’s chairman, and Hugo Dixon, the founder of InFacts and deputy chair of the People’s Vote campaign."

Hmm...

Clavinova · 03/05/2019 11:18

icannotremember
But trust me, we see through the veneer and know the ugliness underneath.

Is that so.

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 03/05/2019 11:18

Yep perigrina as bellini says, fish and chips are not British

And fair point big about the chocolate...its vital!

Songsofexperience · 03/05/2019 11:19

@clavinova

you might have noticed that I have one set of French-born grandparents living in the UK. smile

You may or may not know it but this makes you French. Not just a bit. Completely French in the eyes of France. If you've not already done so, just go to the nearest French consulate with your grandparents' and mother/father's birth certificates and you'll be put on the register for a tiny fee.

Songsofexperience · 03/05/2019 11:22

Though I guess my advice may have just gifted France with another Frexiter. Oh dear!

Motheroffourdragons · 03/05/2019 11:25

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