Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
17
tobee · 03/05/2019 02:49

You could do what my dad did, OhYouBad, and stand in a very blue ward in a very blue council wearing a big red rosette and big smile and end the night with 24 votes or whatever the humiliation was. Grin

NoMoreMonkeysJumpingOnTheBed · 03/05/2019 02:52

Thanks for the well wishes, hoping we will be seen soon so I get home in time for ds2 to wake us up at 5:45!

OhYouBadKitten that doesn't sound great at all, makes the job so much harder for everyone else.

The swing for lib dem/greens is at least one way angry voters are being heard, wonder if the big parties will listen

tobee · 03/05/2019 03:10

Brewfor you Monkeys. On seeing your last post.

mathanxiety · 03/05/2019 04:50

PMK

mathanxiety · 03/05/2019 05:20

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48142181

Labour's shadow international development secretary Barry Gardiner said his party may struggle in the polls to please both Remain and Leave voters.

"There are two competing principles here and we are trying to hold them in tension," he told the BBC. "We are trying to say there is a way to reconcile them [but] if a party is seen to be speaking with two voices, it's very difficult to communicate the policy."

But Labour MP Jess Phillips said her party's policy on Brexit had "failed" and they needed to show more "bravery" over the issue.

frumpety · 03/05/2019 06:28

Bit annoyed with Sky's coverage, they have lumped the independents in with no overall control. Would the D&V people be classed as independents ?

frumpety · 03/05/2019 06:29

Monkeys hope you are home now Smile

lonelyplanetmum · 03/05/2019 06:31

Prof Curtice on the BBC says there's a north/south divide emerging in the losses ...with the Tory vote shedding more seats in Remain areas in the South - and Labour losing more in the North.

But how will it be interpreted- Ruth Smeeth already saying voters just don't believe Labour will deliver Brexit. But the swing is to the LDs for goodness sake. Up 200+ already.

What I find weird is the defining tenet of Labour policy has of course been to support a General election asap in preference to a PV. Understandably all parties want to be elected! But it's the timing- getting a prompt GE now has been Labour's number 1 priority. How can they say the time is right for that now? Surely they might now switch to a PV?

I don't see how this can be interpreted as Labour are being punished for fence sitting on Brexit as they haven't, their betrayal is of Remainers. The Labour losses seem to be to Green and LD . Labour losses definitely seem bigger than Tory ones. (At least finally the LD have passed the tuition fee memory point.)

Where does that leave Corbyn now -he is quite old but I don't think he will walk but he might be pushed? But then I always think there's a short voter ascendancy (like an X factor voting period) when a new choice becomes attractive. So there's no point getting a new Labour lease now as it's too far from an election. The offer of someone and something new only has a short shelf life.

Peregrina · 03/05/2019 06:32

Just back from the Count for our District - which is still only about 2/3rds done. Tories being thrashed.

borntobequiet · 03/05/2019 06:39

Ha ha JH on Today suggesting results not a disaster for main parties, immediately contradicted by Norman Smith.

borntobequiet · 03/05/2019 06:40

Sort of X post with lonely up early again!

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 06:42

Hetton (Sunderland) result:

Lab: 33.3% (-20.3)
UKIP: 28.7% (-5.3)
Ind: 21.6% (+21.6)
Oth: 7.0% (+7.0)
Con: 5.7% (-3.5)
Grn: 3.7% (+3.7)

Birchills Leamore (Walsall) result:

Con: 51.6% (+21.0)
Lab: 48.4% (-10.5)

Conservative GAIN from Labour.

Darton East (Barnsley) result:

LDem: 70.5% (+64.0)
Lab: 21.9% (-28.5)
Con: 7.6% (-12.5)

LDem GAIN from Lab.

St Mary's (Trafford) result:

Con: 49.1% (-4.3)
Lab: 29.6% (-4.9)
Grn: 9.4% (+2.4)
LDem: 6.0% (+0.8)
UKIP: 5.9% (+5.9)

Hale Central (Trafford) result:

Con: 48.6% (-13.5)
LDem: 18.9% (+10.4)
Grn: 17.4% (+8.6)
Lab: 15.2% (-5.4)

Alvaston (Derby) result:

UKIP: 56.4% (+27.6)
Lab: 26.5% (-14.3)
Con: 11.5% (-10.7)
LDem: 5.6% (-0.5)

UKIP GAIN from Lab.

Derwent (Derby) result:

Con: 47.4% (+23.9)
Lab: 28.7% (-13.8)
UKIP: 17.6% (-9.4)
LDem: 6.3% (-0.7)

Con GAIN from Lab.

Blagreaves (Derby) result:

LDem: 49.6% (+19.1)
Lab: 32.0% (-4.8)
Con: 10.7% (-8.2)
UKIP: 7.8% (-5.1)

LDem GAIN from Lab.

Abbey (Derby) result:

LDem: 42.9% (+26.6)
Lab: 36.7% (-13.4)
Con: 8.7% (-11.0)
UKIP: 7.5% (-6.4)

LDem GAIN from Lab.

Brooklands (Trafford) result:

Lab: 43.3% (+10.4)
Con: 35.4% (-16.7)
Grn: 8.4% (+1.7)
LDem: 8.1% (-0.2)
UKIP: 4.8% (+4.8)

Lab GAIN from Con.

Village (Trafford) result:

LDem: 41.0% (+19.6)
Con: 29.4% (-13.8)
Lab: 14.3% (-15.8)
UKIP: 9.2% (+9.2)
Grn: 6.1% (+0.8)

LDem GAIN from Con.

Davyhulme West (Trafford) result:

Lab: 53.5% (+12.2)
Con: 30.3% (-20.6)
UKIP: 8.8% (+8.8)
Grn: 4.7% (-3.1)
LDem: 2.7% (+2.7)

Lab GAIN from Con.

Altrincham (Trafford) result:

Grn: 61.3% (+49.3)
Con: 27.3% (-26.2)
Lab: 8.1% (-15.9)
LDem: 3.3% (-7.3)

Grn GAIN from Con.

I know Altrincham is Hipsterfying at a startling rate, but wow at the greens. That's Graham Brady Land. And arguably might not be a safe seat at the next election. Knowing the area, its definitely Remainia in a big way. Many traditional Tories have been spitting feathers lately and are not happy at Brexit. Brady should crap himself at this - it is part of a trend / noticeable change in the area.

OP posts:
frumpety · 03/05/2019 06:42

Checked out the Guardian and on some results it says all seats up and on others a third of seats up, not entirely sure what this means ?

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 06:47

Where does that leave Corbyn now -he is quite old but I don't think he will walk but he might be pushed

I disagree actually. He might walk. He's said to be fed up with the job, and he's been trying to set things up to make Long-Bailey his successor. She's Northern.

Ironically I don't think she can improve the situation. She female so thats positive for Remainers - but she's still too close to Corbyn and his politics. And whilst she's Northern, being a woman and close to Corbyn definitely won't cut through with Labour leavers. She could end up making the situation worse.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 06:50

This is also fascinating

Swindon, vote share:
Con: 39.4% (-3.2)
Lab: 39.4% (+8.2)
UKIP: 7.1% (-7.8)
LDem: 6.5% (+1.0)
Grn: 6.7% (+1.1)

Important to note the vote share given Labour saw a net seat loss.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 06:55

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall
Some of the Lib Dem gains in the south are v impressive. Overnight they are reversing big declines and in some places going further than they've ever been.

Bath and NE Somerset: +23 (never held it before)
North Norfolk: +15
Cotswold: +8 (never held it before)
Winchester: +6

If I were @BrandonLewis I would be very worried by some of these southern English results.

Wow: now Chelmsford, a gain of AT LEAST 29 seats, They started with 5 seats. Was last Lib Dem in 1998. When I was 9.

More to come. Lib Dem source tells me they’re looking v strong in Vale of White Horse.

Another very strong result for the Lib Dems. This time in the new Somerset West and Taunton council.

Easy to forget now but @theresa_may used to have a marginal seat in Maidenhead. Lib Dems came within 3,000 votes of winning it in 2001 and the PM was targeted in the "decapitation strategy" of 2005. Bad news for her, the Lib Dems are reviving in her backyard.

OP posts:
Sostenueto · 03/05/2019 06:56

I voted green and there was a queue but it was early so people going to work. My neighbour went at about 11 am and said there were mainly the elderly. We had parish election too.
Thanks for thread red love cat picture prettybird

Random18 · 03/05/2019 07:00

Tory Councillor still - but boy did she get a run for her money.

PowerBadgersUnite · 03/05/2019 07:00

Just popping on this morning to say I woke up to the happy news that our conservative council have gone lib dem.

I do wonder if these results will finally make labour leadership realise that a GE is a bloody stupid idea.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 07:04

Tories lost 18 seats on Maidenhead Council and 31 seats in Somerset and Taunton.

The MP for North West Somerset is... And for North Somerset...

Here's a clue
Jacob Rees-Mogg @ jacobReesMogg.
Please vote Conservative in Bath and North East Somerset today. Local government is better run by the Tories.

Yes that just happened. Would like to see the council vote shares and ward breakdown though

OP posts:
ContinuityError · 03/05/2019 07:04

Good to see that JRM’s council is now Lib Dem Smile

TatianaLarina · 03/05/2019 07:05

I don't see how this can be interpreted as Labour are being punished for fence sitting on Brexit as they haven't, their betrayal is of Remainers.

Agreed. Tory and Labour punishment is part from Leavers for not delivering Brexit and the other part from angry Remainers.

Even the Guardian ignores that point:

”The Conservatives had been expecting a tough night amid frustration at Theresa May’s failure to take Britain out of the EU as planned. But Labour also struggled, losing seats amid confusion among voters over the party’s stance on Brexit.”

Greens and LibDems gains are because they are Remain parties!

TatianaLarina · 03/05/2019 07:08

I don’t think Corbyn will walk right now because he’s as rigid and implacable as May. It would be an admission of defeat.

He’s busy trying to usher in a Tory Brexit anyway.

I think he will cling on and go at a time of his choosing.

ContinuityError · 03/05/2019 07:09

And JRM’s own local councillor is now a Lib Dem, having beaten the former Tory leader of Bath and NE Somerset Council Smile

floraloctopus · 03/05/2019 07:10

Our local council is one that would elect a donkey's arse if it had the right colour rosette. It's now NOC.

Swipe left for the next trending thread