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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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Thread gallery
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floraloctopus · 03/05/2019 07:11

^Local council area.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 07:14

Anna Soubry @ anna_soubry
John Doddy is the ex Chair of Broxtowe Conservatives who unsuccessfully moved against me last summer. Today he lost his seat on Broxtowe Borough Council.

Ooo feel the sense of revengance there!!!

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
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RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 07:16

And JRM’s own local councillor is now a Lib Dem, having beaten the former Tory leader of Bath and NE Somerset Council

Wwaaaaaahhhhaaaahahaaaa!!!

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LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 07:23

Layla Moran

@LaylaMoran
To put the national results in context, these are the best @LibDems local election results since 2003 - right in the aftermath of the Iraq war.

311
5:20 AM - May 3, 2019
Twitter Ads info and privacy

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 07:24

Tamara Cohen @tamcohen
Brandon Lewis on @SkyNews says Lib Dems could win over 500 seats.

Tory vote hit on "tough night" as "people are frustrated with the impasse in Parliament"

But says Labour losing out in their heartlands eg Walsall when should be gaining

Over +500 for the LDs would mark a higher level of success than what was considered the high end of success for them.

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BercowsSilkTie · 03/05/2019 07:29

Wow, colours have been firmly nailed to the mast 🇪🇺

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 07:31

Josiah Mortimer @ JosiahMortimer
Interesting to see the 'Anyone But the Big Two' party has won the local elections

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LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 07:31

It does show what a united LD and Green party would have done too...

LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 07:33

Although I do see how different they are. I'm really cheered by this! Leave areas voting LD and Green should really make govt and Lab stop and think about PV.

TatianaLarina · 03/05/2019 07:35

I love the smell of schadenfreude first thing in the morning.

The two major parties falling over themselves to deliver Brexit - alienating both Brexiters and Remainers in the process. Result.

ContinuityError · 03/05/2019 07:36

Interesting to see the 'Anyone But the Big Two' party has won the local elections

Sends a nice signal to all those parroting the “80% of people voted for Brexit supporting parties in 2017”.

Tanith · 03/05/2019 07:38

“Î wonder if the Tories will get hit in the South ...
or if they are too worried at the thought of higher Council Tax”

They tried that on FB here in a rather desperate “Vote Conservative for Lower Council Tax!” post.

It went down very badly.

The Conservatives were already being torn apart due to corruption/Brexit/general uselessness and that post fanned the flames of ire.

One Tory tried saying that they weren’t responsible for the national party politics and was told, if that was the case, they should be Independent and not use the national party to promote themselves - fair point.

I would normally dismiss this kind of thing as being politically motivated, but these were not activists: I recognised a good few of the angry posters from rl. They normally avoid politics and post about their kids or their cats. This week, they are bloody furious!

LonelyTiredandLow · 03/05/2019 07:39

To be fair I had hoped that this was the case from watching Gogglebox - there's a very united "WTF are we doing?" on there from every family whenever Brexit comes on. It isn't a poll but it's usually a good forerunner for opinion!

Iambuffy · 03/05/2019 07:44

My ward still Tory.
Quelle surprise

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 07:47

Sebastian Payne @SebastianePayne
Local elections are often just about local issues. This year it could be planning. One Tory campaigner:

“There’s a pattern emerging about growth of independents/LDs/Greens. Where we have lost most so far is where there are severe planning problems caused by NPPF reforms in 2013”

The Local Plan is the hot topic in our area. It's not finished yet but developments against it are being put through... People are not happy. FWIW whilst there is a lot of Nimbysm round here, absolutely everyone I speak to says they have no objection to houses being built locally and they want affordable ones not executive houses. Doesn't matter about the age group or political allegiance. The problem is precisely because the council keeps approving executive homes on prime greenbelt plots without pulling up developers.

It's interesting but I'm not surprised.

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RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 07:50

Ouch Vale of White Horse. Ld gain. 23 seats gained at the expense of the Tories.

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magimedi · 03/05/2019 07:50

PMK

havingtochangeusernameagain · 03/05/2019 07:51

It does show what a united LD and Green party would have done too

Yes I was checking some of the wards for my local elections and the Torry candidate won in each case where they both stood and split the vote.

In my ward there were no Greens or Libdems, only our local community group and they won about 1600 votes over the Tory candidate's 600 odd. Don't Split The Vote is the lesson I think!

My Tory candidate was a no deal Brexiteer so I am glad he didn't win!

I'm not really sure why party politics is really relevant for local issues - all the candidates should be local groups really.

Sostenueto · 03/05/2019 07:52

My council results not in yet.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 07:52

Patrick McGuire @patrickkmcguire
Overnight the Tories lost Trandridge, in Surrey, over this very issue - council leader there lost his seat to a local anti-development independent who won 68 per cent of the vote.

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PigeonofDoom · 03/05/2019 07:54

There is strong local opposition here to developments but it comes on the back of experience with other development. Developers have, in the past, come in, put up a huge amount of crammed in housing on a small site. Always find a way to get round planning rules so they don’t have to put in any additional resources and then the local roads and services are swamped. If developers and councils put in plans for developments that included additional resources to support the increase in population (eg road widening, new doctors surgery, school places), there would be a lot less opposition.
Having lived on a new development and seen how the big developers work, I have a very low opinion of them. Just out for a quick buck.

havingtochangeusernameagain · 03/05/2019 07:55

The Local Plan is the hot topic in our area. It's not finished yet but developments against it are being put through... People are not happy. FWIW whilst there is a lot of Nimbysm round here, absolutely everyone I speak to says they have no objection to houses being built locally and they want affordable ones not executive houses. Doesn't matter about the age group or political allegiance. The problem is precisely because the council keeps approving executive homes on prime greenbelt plots without pulling up developers

Similar issues in our area. The community group I mentioned are desperate for a new "village" to be built on green field land. The Planning Inspector has said it is not necessary and they are so disappointed about it and still trying to slip it into the Local Plan. I can't help thinking someone somewhere is hoping for a back hander. When they first started talking about it a large brown field site locally was going to be used for business use so it wasn't available for houses, but now they're building houses on it, so the new village really isn't needed. I don't think green field development should ever be allowed unless it is an absolute last resort. So much brown field land to use up and empty houses to bring back into use.

havingtochangeusernameagain · 03/05/2019 07:56

Developers have, in the past, come in, put up a huge amount of crammed in housing on a small site

Yes. Or, where you could get eg six affordable houses on a site, they put one massive £1 million plus house on the site. Councils should put a stop to that, too.

Sostenueto · 03/05/2019 07:56

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48091592
Results so far.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 07:56

This from last night in the context of anyone but the big two winning, needs reflecting on again this morning. Farage's comments about a corrupt elite are fed by this type of shit.

Steven hawkes @steve_hawkes
Barry Gardiner - referring to Brexit talks - tells James Cleverly - "We are in there trying to bail you guys out."
(one for the leaflets)

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