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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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tobee · 03/05/2019 01:18

Barry Gardiner got the short straw tonight! GrinRelatively easy night for Cleverly so far.

Labour ought to be so ashamed! Gardiner talking about a complex policy is looking like a stupid policy. Angry

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 01:20

Seeing rumors of a 14% turnout in Sandwell. Coupled with 119 spoilt ballots.

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RedToothBrush · 03/05/2019 01:23

Simon Dedman @ sidedman
Source at the Chelmsford count tells me Conservative MP @vickyford is in tears. Lib Dems say they are seeing the Tory vote "collapsing" #LocalElections2019 #LE2019

I think Ford is a Tory Remainer if I'm not mistaken.

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BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 01:23

Î wonder if the Tories will get hit in the South ...
or if they are too worried at the thought of higher Council Tax
They can revolt in the EP elections without that fear

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 01:29

Darfield (Barnsley) result:

D&V: 38.1% (+34.0)
Lab: 33.8% (-18.1)
LDem: 10.1% (+10.1)
EDem: 9.7% (+9.7)
Con: 8.4% (-4.9)
UKIP: 0.0% (-30.7)

D&V GAIN from Labour.

D&V: Democrats & Veterans - sounds like political wing of the Democratic Football Lads Alliance - street Brexit, same sort of grouping

Icantreachthepretzels · 03/05/2019 01:32

Another UKIP splinter group win. The democrats and veterans take Darfield (Barnsley) from labour. Interestingly UKIP did stand at this one (they didn't in the FBM one) but they got 0% of the vote.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 01:32

James Mills, former adviser to Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell, says the loss of Wirral is "not a complete surprise".

He says Labour infighting could "possibly" be a factor in tonight's result.

AutumnCrow · 03/05/2019 01:33

Barry is bloody appalling. The Labour losses are mostly to the Lib Dems and the Greens - both clear-cut Remain parties.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 01:34

Í asked upthread if the 0% shown a few times for UKIP just means they stood last time, but didn`t this time
red ?

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 01:36

These early results are mostly Labour areas
What happens later in the Tory areas could have a different pattern of winners & losers

DippyAvocado · 03/05/2019 01:40

D&V is a rather unfortunate choice of name.

The FBM has gained a seat from the Conservatives on my District Council too. However, the Conservatives also lost a seat to the Greens and a seat to the Lib Dems. Still a solidly Tory council but it's gratifying to feel for once in an election that one's vote actually counted for something. No chance of anything other than a Tory MP being elected in a GE round here.

SwedishEdith · 03/05/2019 01:43

I think Ford is a Tory Remainer if I'm not mistaken.

She was but is very pro May's deal. Used to be an MEP.

Icantreachthepretzels · 03/05/2019 01:45

D&V is a rather unfortunate choice of name.

Yes it marries perfectly both vomiting and diarrhoea with Domestic Violence ... probably pretty apt.

Icantreachthepretzels · 03/05/2019 01:50

Conservative GAIN Birchills Leamore (Walsall) from Labour.

It's been brutal for labour so far. Proving once and for all that they need to get off the fence and stop trying to fudge. They've been claiming to be the only party that represents both Remain and Leave ... you might as well claim to be the only regiment that fights for both the Roundheads and the Cavaliers Hmm - cancels itself out and pleases nobody.

NoMoreMonkeysJumpingOnTheBed · 03/05/2019 01:59

Wouldn't usually be on here at this time, but sitting in a&e with a poorly DS and watching the results - absolutely kicking myself so far for voting LD when greens are making such big gains, my area is a strong Labour hold previously with ld a distant 3rd so I tried to vote strategically. Wishing I'd gone for greens but waiting for the results to come in 😬

OhYouBadBadKitten · 03/05/2019 02:09

Hope your ds is ok Monkeys.

Have to say, the Tories have been absolutely demolished in our area in the seats that were up. Large majorities overturned by landslide victories. It's been a good night. I'm so used to being smirked at at the count that it was hard to be a polite winner.

NoMoreMonkeysJumpingOnTheBed · 03/05/2019 02:19

Thank you, he's currently fast asleep, zero signs of the worrying symptoms that brought us here in the first place!

Results in for my area, labour hold apparently there wouldn't have been any other result I assume because of the number of seats being voted on.

Glad to see Labour losing overall though, hoping tories will lose out to a similar extent

OhYouBadBadKitten · 03/05/2019 02:23

A&E is the best place for kiddie instant cures.

I'm trying to unwind now after watching countless votes. One poor chap had to be watched really carefully as he got totally muddled as to which he was putting on what pile. The he got upset when I had to gently ask him to have another look and then had to get s senior member of staff in to sort him out,

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 02:24

Best wishes to MiniMonkey 💐

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 02:26

BBC Analysis of Labour:

"It is beginning to look as though there is a notable variation in Labour's performance between the north and the south of England.

Compared with 2015, Labour's vote is down on average by five points in the north of England, while it is up by three points in the south.

Similarly, though less dramatically, Labour's vote is down by eight points compared with last year in the north of England but by a more modest five points in the south of England.

This pattern - if it continues - may well exacerbate the division between northern and more southern MPs about how the party should respond to Brexit.

It also means that as more southern councils declare tomorrow, we could find that Labour's performance looks a little better by the end of tomorrow afternoon."

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2019 02:28

John Curtice says turnout so far is averaging just one to two points below what it was in 2018 and 2016

tobee · 03/05/2019 02:36

Hope you get sorted soon Monkeys and yr ds feels better!

OhYouBad I think you should enjoy your night and not worry about being polite too much! Takes me back to my local council count observing for Labour in 1997. That was a fun night! Grin And a very long time ago in far away land of political hope. Sad

tobee · 03/05/2019 02:39

My analysis of tonight:- people are as divided as ever. Move over Laura!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 03/05/2019 02:42

Lib Dems are one of the early winners at s first glance.

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
OhYouBadBadKitten · 03/05/2019 02:44

It was Very Good :)

although perturbing at the number of people who suggested that I stand next year. I'm not convinced. Local politics is a thankless treadmill.

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