Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

Ah, my bad, Peregrina is right
they need to share party list
www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2013/9780111101223/schedules?view=plain
even if they do not do a coalition

but will they have the sense ?

I thought PR would be better, but it’s not, really.

Looking at the EP seats for the NW, you had to get 20% of the vote to get any seats last time. The Tories could get a mauling, and the UKIP vote could be split with the Brexit Party. But even so, I don’t see a sensible Remain option as Lib Dems and Greens were only on 6-7%. Any ideas?

Just saw this and had to share: how Brexit is like an episode of the Simpsons... twitter.com/Longshanks1307/status/1116703454058119170

What Brexit has shown in that in addition to not doing maths, MPs don't do compromise either

They'd rather lose everything than concede one inch to an opponent

Referring to the chart posted by woman how can Yukip and Farage's leaderless party have 29% of the vote? Just how?
They've had:
•endless leaders some lasting only a few weeks
•leaders with weird fake names
• leaders who fight and are imprisoned
• many members who get suspended eg for saying Africans should be left to "kill themselves". He has since been suspended
• candidates who attribute the winter floods to gay marriage!
• candidates who call for Lenny Henry to emigrate to "a Black Country"?
• people who end up in jail for EU expenses fraud
• Neil ( and Christine?)Hamilton

Why do the attract that many voters? Why.

www.ft.com/content/cfd8edf8-ff73-11e7-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5

@red The Telegraph "exclusive" 😂😂 about Tories changing their leadership rules to ditch May earlier

That was in my 1st post on this thread (!)
because I'd read reports a few days ago that Tory Brexiters were discussing this

The media are shameless about claiming exclusives that are just recycling old news

Changing the rules was a pretty obvious tactic for the Brexiters to at least try
Like Parliament, the party can generally change their rules of procedure, if they have the votes

Green and Labour have been known to collaborate and compromise in the past so it is possible. The Green Party stood down in our constituency as a candidate in 2017 to help direct the vote towards the labour candidate, who only won by 90something votes in 2015. In 2017 he won with a majority of 9000 (I think, off the top of my head!)

BCF its funny isn't it?

Not the first time the press have been rehashing whats been said on here ages before.

pretzels, I'm in the same region as you and having the exact same dilemma. I think Richard Corbett is excellent, very pro EU and totally in line with my political values. I'm presuming he'll be no 1 on the Labour party list - do you know if that's correct?

I'm also wondering if it would send a clearer message to back the Lib Dems or poss Change Uk if they have candidates in Yorkshire and the Humber. But worried about splitting the remain vote and ending up with 3 or 4 Brexit party or UKIP MEPs. The tories in our area aren't much better - IIRC one of them has switched from being tory to ukip and back again.

lonelyplanetmum That poll, if not a fluke, would mean that a big chunk of the 52% are continuing to vote for a Brexit without a plan, to be carried out by people who despise experts

The Tories have lost a lot of votes in that poll - looks like to the extreme Brexit parties

The 3 small Remain parties pulling roughly equal votes and totalling 23%

Labour by far the largest vote, so would increase the PES / Social Democrat block

• some speculation in the German / EU press that they could even make it the largest block, which would hence choose Juncker's successor

This possible change caused by a "Leaving" member is causing concern, because we might have the situation that the British MEPs help choose a centre-left candidate instead of the current centre-right favourite Manfred weber ... and then leave !

Did everyone see this? @pretzels I think this could be used to show how Brexit not working has stalled Bannon's populist movement

During a meeting in Washington in April 2016, Bannon – who would within a few months take up his role as head of Trump’s presidential campaign – suggested the leader of Italy’s anti-immigration League party should start openly targeting Pope Francis, who has made the plight of refugees a cornerstone of his papacy.

The claims coincide with suggestions that Bannon’s pan-European populist project, the Movement, has stalled.

Looking at previous EP elections: you can't just look at 2014 results, you also need to look at the 2009 results. They illustrate just how much support for parties can swing.

Looking at the North West Region, it was the collapse of the LibDem vote between 2009 and 2014, more than halving - probably as a result of perhaps unjustifiably being blamed for the coalition - which let in 3 UKIP MEPs (compared to, in 2009 1 UKIP - on a high vote and 1 BNP on "last man standing" and 1 LibDem actually on similar votes to UKIP )

The same happened in Scotland, letting in the odious, execrable single UKIP elected representative in any capacity in Scotland

So if the LibDem vote were to recover, that in itself could squeeze out UKIP/the Brexit Party.

But conversely, if the Conservative vote were to collapse, then again, the Brexit Party/UKIP could benefit again

And if Labour went, say, to the Greens, then there's another scenario to model

I'm presuming he'll be no 1 on the Labour party list - do you know if that's correct?

If he's their leader at the EU I would assume so, but I don;t know for certain. I imagine there must be a place the list is published.

I'm also wondering if it would send a clearer message to back the Lib Dems or poss Change Uk if they have candidates in Yorkshire and the Humber. But worried about splitting the remain vote

Yes, I want to send a clear remain message with my vote and - even though RC is remain himself, worry a vote for him could be twisted into a 'vote for a brexit party'. But at the same time, we don't have any Lib Dem MEPs and no guarantee they could win this time - in which case it is better to vote for a known remainer - even in the wrong party - than risk ending up with six kippers.

It's a conundrum - and of course, if JC just does as Corbett says and puts a second ref in the manifesto, a conundrum that can go away completely.

Lonelytired That report was just It makes it more important then ever to send remainers back to the European Parliament. It's good if the movement has stalled, but it just shows how pernicious this foreign far right influence is. Grist to the patriotic remain mill!

If the Tory vote collapses, it looks like itis the hardcore Brexiters who would deseert the sinking ship
so they obviously go to the 2 Brexit parties

That splits the rightwing vote 3 ways

Currently in EP predictions, Labour is holding up much better
but that could change if Labour continue to support Brexit and Remainers don't want their vote to be claimed - once again - as endorsement of Brexit

So we don't know to what extent the left vote would be split, with say the Greens

The LDems and Tiggers look to be fighting for the centre ground, so might kill off each others chances
However, Labour Remainers could boost both a lot

Labour doing even better in OpiniumResearch poll

Big difference - with the same polling company - between the EP and GE voting intentions.

Looks like Tory Brexiters are showing their anger about voting in EP elections, but have not - yet - abandoned the party permanently
Maybe also if CHUK & Brexit party options not given in GE poll - shows how parties choosing not to stand in some plces could make a big difference

Britain Elects@britainelects

European Parliament voting intention

LAB: 29%
CON: 17%
UKIP: 13%
BREX: 12%
LDEM: 10%
GRN: 6%
CHUK: 4%

via @OpiniumResearch, 09 - 12 Apr

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 36% (+1)
CON: 29% (-6)
UKIP: 11% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
GRN: 4% (-1)

via @OpiniumResearch, 09 - 12 Apr
Chgs. w/ 29 Mar

Belated pmk

Icantreachthepretzels we share the same MEP's , had a little look at them and there isn't one I could vote for as someone who voted remain. Do you think they will all stand again or will there be new candidates and when will we find out who is standing ?

Yes thank you tanith my dgd really was inspired by her visit to Cambridge. We had to go to sidgewick campus the law faculty. There were 300 attending her masterclass. Other master classes included maths, Anglo Saxon and Norse and sociology.
It was really cold though but we strolled along the river near Queens and then as it was so cold for me we went to cafe to people watch. Dgd so loved Cambridge. It would be lovely if she succeeded in getting in but the competition is so high. But at least she will be able to say she tried. It will give her the will to keep her grades up for next years exams. Fingers crossed!

Richard Corbett sounds OK but if I voted for him , I would be voting for current Labour Brexit policy and I don't even know what that is anymore

What a surprise that when required to use a PR system the UK bar NI goes for (probably) the least proportional one, and one that traps you into voting for party not candidate.

The UK didn't choose the PR system in NI

• the GFA negotiations required a fair electoral system and US pressure was especially critical.

Just how
I'm interested that with the amount of uncritical promotion they receive from the bbc and press, and the collapse of tories, and JC in role, they aren't on more. A 1-2% rise since 2014? In order to emulate their founders they need 43%.

Just contacted TIG with warning about splitting the Remain vote and advice to look more closely at the D’Hondt system. That’ll be me off the list then, I expect.

Sos Cambridge does seem to specialise in being cold. Not sure I've been warm there yet!

Farage is 'charismatic' in the same way Trump is.
It's car crash entertainment politics.

In the run up to the American elections Trump got way more airtime than the other candidates precisely for that reason.