Active discussions

Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Talk
Brexit
Original poster

Westminstenders: Compromise is a difficult word

989 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/04/2019 19:26

Today the HoC had a water leak. It closed the house for the day. This isn't without consequence; any hope for the opportunity of Indicative Votes on Monday had cold water poured on it.

Meanwhile talks between talks between May and Corbyn were about as productive as you'd imagine. But apparently they had nice tea and biscuits.

The Cooper Bill, the last minute lock on May getting a extension to prevent no deal, has been in the Lords today. I say it's been in the Lords but Tories have filibuster Ed on procedure for over 6 hours to prevent the chance of it passing the house. Tory whips are timetabled until 6am but the opposition benches have vowed to go to 7.30am. So far the votes to ruin the procedure have failed comfortably so the opposition have the number. Its just a question of time.

The trouble is with the Lords not sitting tomorrow that means the bill won't get passed until Monday and there are fears it won't get royal assent until Tuesday.

The bill doesn't prevent accidental no deal but it would be a barrier to May.

It therefore looks like May's gambit with the EU to get an extension is to say her plan is ongoing talks with Labour for a cross party solution. It won't wash.

No deal looks more and more likely.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
28
OublietteBravo · 05/04/2019 12:28

Can I just say that I love the way these threads have tangential discussions (menopause the other day, education today)? It’s nice to stay up to date with Brexit and remember that there is life outside Brexit.

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 05/04/2019 12:28

Turnout down 30% on 2017 though.
Thats significant.

Not particularly. A feature of by elections is crap turnout.

I'm cautious about reading too much into things here.

Between now and the EU elections we have local elections.

The Tories are liable to get a beating because the 2015 councils were at the height of Cameron's popularity.

They are always going to struggle to meet that level. So there's going to be loads made of that, that does not mean a lot.

Then the EU elections.

Turnout for these has always been poor. And tended to attract voters with stronger opinions on the EU. It's a polarised voting profile. And people who are indifferent or fed up of Brexit are perhaps least likely to vote.

Turnout is likely to be the biggest decider in elections going forward - but all the main parties face a battle against a depressed electorate. But a by-election isn't going to really tell you much about how bad that will be at a GE because traditionally they already have that feature.

OP posts:
Littlespaces · 05/04/2019 12:28

Lots of people on social media are calling the most recent begged for extension Flexit.

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/04/2019 12:30

The whole JC/Labour chaos argument gets thinner by the day though - reminiscent of Cameron suggesting Ed Milliband would be chaos...Hmm

Choose us because we are less terrible didn't do remain any favours as is always pointed out.

ColdFingered · 05/04/2019 12:33

Choose us because we are less terrible
I think a huge number of people vote against, not for, though. It's not who do you like the most. It's who do you hate the most, and then vote for whoever will keep them out.

CordeliaEarhart · 05/04/2019 12:34

People who say "we managed fine before the EU" were probably not in jobs that involved travel.

Or in industries which massively improved due to the ability to easily and relatively cheaply buy in products from Europe. For instance, (according to my granddad) farming yields massively improved due to access to a wider range of seed, fertiliser and pesticides. There is a reason food is so much cheaper (relative to salary) than it was then, and it isn't just a case of being able to import the actual food.

howabout · 05/04/2019 12:35

Just dipped into Brexitcast featuring MPs moaning about how stressed they are. First thought was welcome to how 90% of the population feel ALL the time in Austerity UK - overwork, insecurity, self-medicating.

Littlespaces · 05/04/2019 12:36

I agree. Elections are often lost.

Is the country more fearful of an ERG Tory Party or of a Corbyn Labour government?

CordeliaEarhart · 05/04/2019 12:37

I should say that my granddad was a farmer when we joined initially. He's not an expert but not a complete random either.

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/04/2019 12:37

I think in a GE any change that people voted for with Brexit would transfer to people voting for anyone but Tories. Personal view but they've had their time and messed it up on a global stage.

Oh and I never managed to learn the tables, despite being kept in at play time Sad. It did put me off maths for life, which is why I want dd to keep her confidence at a similar age.

67chevvyimpala · 05/04/2019 12:39

Thank you all.

Very inciteful comments as usual x

67chevvyimpala · 05/04/2019 12:40

insightful

borntobequiet · 05/04/2019 12:40

Tatiana I was taught by a specialist in Algebraic Topology at university (RG and considered itself better than Cambridge), who admitted his mental arithmetic wasn't up to much.

CordeliaEarhart · 05/04/2019 12:41

Instant times tables and adding up do have some benefits - it makes playing darts much easier.

borntobequiet · 05/04/2019 12:43

Oops my last post was for Lonely& - sorry Tatiana.

Peregrina · 05/04/2019 12:44

Turnout down 30% on 2017 though.
Thats significant.

Not really. Look at the Witney by election when Cameron stood down. This is a traditional "pig with a blue rosette" territory, which had voted Remain. The turn out was 46.8%, but there was a big push by the Lib Dems, who came second and the Tory Leaver won.

Batley and Spen held a by election on the same day. This had a turn out of 25.8% down from 64.4% in the 2015 GE. UKIP came a dismal second, with LibDems third and Labour 4th, but not very many votes between the 2nd and 4th parties.

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/04/2019 12:48

Mariana on politics live is amazing. She's countering the idiot Brexiteer so well!

67chevvyimpala · 05/04/2019 12:50

I suppose I mean its significant because it's an election at a time when the country and uk politics itself is in crisis and the turnout still was that low.

And in Wales too, which voted leave in most areas.

(I realise by election turnout is historically lower than GEs.)

It makes me wonder how much people care now about Brexit.

DGRossetti · 05/04/2019 12:53

I did find myself idly wondering if all the NDAs in place have a side-effect Hmm that people like the ERG can't know what's going on either ?

ColdFingered · 05/04/2019 12:57

I was taught by a specialist in Algebraic Topology at university ... who admitted his mental arithmetic wasn't up to much.
I think that's a bit of an affectation shown by people who are demonstrably good at maths (and he probably never needed to use it anyway).

Re mental arithmetic, though, I've found it most useful in "bottom jobs", and my MIL worked behind a bar, and she used it all the time.
However, that doesn't alter the fact that many people will never master it, and those children shouldn't be turned off maths by being repeatedly forced to fail.

Dockray · 05/04/2019 12:59

Several years ago my boss at the time was asked to meet with one of the special advisers charged with identifying areas suitable for the "bonfire of red tape" and he got me to come along to discuss one particular area where they thought I could provide evidence to support their idea. The special adviser was incredibly simplistic in his thinking. I demonstrated links between what he wanted to do and huge increases in costs for the government in a completely different policy area. I have a tendency to be very thorough in the guidance I give and my boss sat and smirked as I systematic demolished the whole plan. The spad was genuinely stunned and kept going "I never thought of it like that". The plan was shelved shortly after but I do worry someone will dust it off in the future and try again and am even more worried that someone with so much influence was not able to see obvious flaws in an issue.

DD uses times tables rockstar and loves it. That's mainly as she's insanely competitive and has made it her mission to systematicly beat a boy in her class in all possible ways. (He started it by saying girls couldn't do maths, so totally deserved)

Her young brother has just started using it unprompted after showing no interest up to now. He does it while watching Minecraft videos at the same time Hmm. Not sure thats entirely what the school had in mind but anything that encourages him to demonstrate what he can actually do to his teachers is a bonus (SEN, a strong preference for learning by watching and a huge reluctance to "perform" in public. It took OT intervention before he'd admit to his teacher he could read or count.)

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/04/2019 13:04

I am loving the idea that with a firm kick into the long-grass Brexit can be put on hold with musak people might be able to focus on the other things the Tories have managed to balls up in the meantime.

I think the interesting figure from the by-election was that the parties which canvassed for remain saw their figures grow too (3 or 4 I think? So it was spread out). So despite UKIP trebling because Tories suck, if Labour wants to retain it's remain voters it does suggest they would do well to advertise a pro-remain/PV position.

DGRossetti · 05/04/2019 13:06

I was taught by a specialist in Algebraic Topology at university ... who admitted his mental arithmetic wasn't up to much.

Wasn't Einstein's maths pretty pants ?

HazardGhost · 05/04/2019 13:07

Sending all my sympathies to the dyslexic kids doing times tables... I went to a school where we stood to recite them. Eventually I was allowed to skip maths lessons and tidy the reading corner instead.

Runningintothesunset · 05/04/2019 13:08

I have nothing against mental maths. Just as I have nothing against learning poetry, or painting, or pe, or drama lessons. I’m just against obsessive and repeated testing of children.

All children should be free to find the thing that they can shine at. I’m a natural maths / science person. Just because I can’t draw for toffee doesn’t make me a terrible person and no child should be made to feel that way because they can draw but not do times tables.