Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

[RedToothBrush]

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

Conservatives don't have enough money for an election?

For this read: last time we thought we would win with a huge majority and would stick it to Labour, so found the money and went for it.That didn't work too well. We could find the money if we wanted - we could ask Rees-Mogg and others to dip into their pockets and give us the money they've made since the Referendum on currency transactions. This time, with Theresa May still at the helm, we know we daren't risk it. We know that Corbyn is still unpopular so we cant be sure that Labour would win and inherit the mess.

The splendid Ian Dunt.

When I have been inside the HOC (dining rooms/tea rooms) it has struck me as a cross between an old fashioned lunatic asylum and a boys public school.

Thinking about it, it's like that excellent and prescient Lindsay Anderson film "If"

Not the best environment to forge what could be life saving political allegiances on behalf of their constituents.

Circular firing squad: Puritanism sees Remainers and Soft Brexiters destroy each other

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/04/01/circular-firing-squad-puritanism-sees-remainers-and-soft-bre

At the moment, the only thing anyone is interested in is sorting Brexit because there seems to be no cash available to spend on schools, the police or the NHS anyway, so promises on those are just ballocks.

Yes- year in year out it's not undemocratic to ignore votes collectively motivated by all of the above.

However just because one issue ( EU) is singled out- its undemocratic to ignore that one.

It's weird.

Caught Alison McGovern and aTory I had neither heard of nor whose name I can remember on BBC breakfast.

Being ex-Labour I guess I am still partisan. But her whole tone was so much better. Pointing out that pitting the people against parliament is wrong whoever says it. That indicative votes are a process - something the media Does Not Get pretty much unanimously.
He was on the Mrs-May's-deal-is-the-will-of-the-people soapbox.

Andrew Adonis is still so positive. And I'm mentally and practically preparing for No Deal. Have I not got enough faith?!

My MP respresents the tories in a safe-seat in a marginally Leave constituency.

He has so far voted against May’s deal 3 times.

Last night he voted against CU, against CM and for the other two. If he is that against Brexit, why is he a tory MP? Why didn’t he join TIG? He can’t even claim to represent the view of his constituents.

I am as angry with him as I am with the ERG.

I just emailed the Today prog saying that before they interview any dimwit MP on Brexit they should ask them to explain in 30 seconds live on air the difference between the Single Market and the Customs Union, and if they can't, boot them out of the studio.

I'm sick of listening to ignorant twits.

My MP who voted to remain in the referendum and is in a constituency that has ALWAYS been Tory yet voted leave 68% has consistently voted against anything other than Mays deal. He also has consistently voted against gay marriage a d rights, trade union rights, and almost everything concerning peoples rights including the human rights bills. He's voted for anything to do with austerity and even reducing housing benefits. In other words he's a complete and utter wanker!

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
May will not revoke Article 50 before next Friday.

Any person mad or stupid enough to make the Article 50 notification without preparation is mad or stupid enough to take us out without a deal.

Unless May is removed, the UK cannot give a good reason for a long extension.

And May will not revoke.

May has somehow to be removed from the cockpit, else the UK is going to now crash into hard Brexit.

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
·
4m
David Davis tells Today he warns the Cabinet as it meets “don’t be sure every Conservative MP would vote for it (MV3] if it was made a confidence vote, one or two have said already, i think there are probably 20 who would say this [brexit] is more important [than the Government]”

It all feels so utterly hopeless this morning

She won't go though. Unless they vote for the WA.

I absolutely despair at the state of our government and parliament as a whole. I've never been so despondent at a political situation and so worried about the future.

I've looked into cross-qualifying in Scotland and it's going to take money we don't have right now to do so. I'll keep looking at other options to get us up there, however.

Michael Deacon @ michaelpdeacon
Has the Darwin Award ever been given to a country

All the cowardly Labour MPs who abstained on Cherry’s motion now have a moral obligation to vote for the WA. It’s the only way of avoiding a crash out IN 10 DAYS with certainty. I hate the idea but I think it needs to pass now.

Removing May from the Cockpit won't work. We thought that with Cameron, and would have expected May to be a safe but rather dull pair of hands, who would at least get us there.

Who would you put in the cockpit now? Johnson? - who has wasted taxpayers money whilst London Mayor with the Garden Bridge and water cannon, condemned that poor lady to extra time in an Iranian gaol because of ill considered remarks, and fronted up the Leave campaign which has now just been fined for illegal use of money.

Any other candidates? Raab - just discovered that Britain is an island and that a huge volume of trade goes via Dover - Calais. Rees-Mogg who never holds office, finding sniping from the sidelines more to his taste. Leasdom?

Remember how last night was supposed to be a free vote for the Tories, but I was worried because of how Labour were whipping as I feared it would provoke a Tory whip purely for partisan reasons?

Well:

Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt
An ally of Nick Boles tells he was so angry with Conservatives because Theresa May ordered a particularly aggressive whipping operation against his Common Market 2.0 proposal

PM’s objection to Nick Boles idea: familiar criticism that it would oblige UK to accept free movement. PM thinks the emergency brake allowed under his EEA proposal is meaningless bc it has never be invoked by current members and would involve EU retaliation if invoked. But...

...PM had another objection to Nick Boles idea which rang true even to some Remain Tories: it could threaten integrity of UK. PM feared that if UK stayed in single market through EFTA pillar of EEA that could increase support for Scottish independence...

....SNP would argue in an independence referendum: vote Yes to be fully in EU while maintaining full access to UK market because UK would be in single market....

....PM believes that at a stroke the Boles plan would have destroyed main pro-UK argument in a Scottish independence referendum: stay in UK as the only way to maintain full access to Scotland’s largest market in rest of UK

The absolute state of this.

1. 'free vote'
2. she's stitching up NI so badly they leave
3. but she's throwing NI under the bus to try and keep Scotland

Words fail me.

Re lunatic asylum - I was brought up in one of the old ones, lived there on site until I was 8 as my father was medical director. I can categorically say that it was largely a quiet, peaceful and therapeutic place (of course there were exceptions to this - locked wards I never went into), nothing like the frenetic mayhem of Parliament at the present moment. Actually I don't think I realised as a child that the nice ladies who came to help my mother in the house were recuperating from serious mental illness, even though one of them aired the mattresses by flinging them out of the bedroom windows.

I am raging with the TIGs and LibDems. If we end up in a hard Brexit, I will blame them as much as the Tories. I voted LibDem last time due to Brexit and was planning LibDem or TIG, but even as a hardcore remainer, this brinkmanship is crazy. At least Labour would compromise.

They have been so reckless with people’s futures, just as bad as the ERG.

3) but she's throwing NI under the bus to try and keep Scotland

Another reason for not calling an election - can't be sure of the DUP winning and propping her up again.

Robert Peston@peston
Cabinet tomorrow, in its “political” firm, starts with “presentation of polling”, I am told. So presumably ministers will be able to judge if a general election would get them out of Brexit jail or would be exercise in extreme self harm.

Great. Just great.

That'll mean she's going for no deal then.

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
View from govt source: Last night’s votes proved Parliament can’t make a decision & is unreliable > May’s next pivot: win over Labour leave MPs who would rather vote for May deal than 2nd ref or long delay. But PM must move (see @tamcohen re a time-limited Customs union option)

Tamara Cohen @tamcohen
Cabinet dilemma: for MV3 to pass need 30 MPs and they’re not coming from brexiteers or DUP, so labour support needed.

One minister suggests cabinet to discuss time-limited customs union that still holds out possibility of independent trade policy.

Says: “what else can she do?”

"Time limited customs union."

Awful. Truly awful.

But not as awful as straight no deal.

Anything with the WA at this point

pmk omg, can't believe any of this.