Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

[RedToothBrush]

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

Howabout so ... they can't offer W.A vs remain on a ballot because you and they think they will be voted out in the next election? (whenever that is - maybe as far away as 2022)

They're not going to get voted out by leavers who are abstaining are they? And then there would be all those remainers who would be ever so grateful. Not to mention the vast swathe of the electorate who didn't vote and therefore probably aren't that fussed one way or the other what is on a confirmatory ballot paper. That would be 63% of the electorate OK with what happened vs 37% (at most) who were too angry to show up.

I really don't get what your point is. In 3 years time a tiny percentage of the electorate might still be so pissed off that the mps might risk losing their seats and therefore they shouldn't do everything in their power to avert disaster now - even at the risk of pissing off said tiny percentage?

Bottom line is - we have no say in this. some mps are hoping to get a customs union +P.V put onto the agenda. One of the ideas the cabinet were floating this morning is the W.A + confirmatory referendum. Should it happen, it is up to the electoral commission to decide what to put on the ballot - not us. And if hard core leavers - who ignore the fact that both the 2016 referendum and all pro brexit manifestos promised a deal - don't bother to turn out to vote - that remains their look out.

The 2022 GE is 2022s problem - and could well be fought on completely different issues. In 2013 who had any idea 2016 was going to be such a clusterfuck? Three years is a heck of a long time in politics.

I’m so sorry Hasenstein

It's at times like this, it's interesting to look at the options not being used and how they square with what we are being told. And then feed that back into the picture.

If we assume that - whatever it may result in - the ultimate "reset" is a General Election, then clearly, we aren't yet at the stage where an ultimate reset is needed

Why ?

I'm very sorry to hear your news @Hasenstein . The logistical/admin nonsense and expense is terrible.
Is flying a possibility? I have no experience of Lufthansa but a few years back AerLingus gave my mum a special short notice rate to fly back to Ireland for her sister's funeral- and to me a bit of a discount for accompanying her.
While it wouldn't necessarily solve your difficulties or be cheaper, it might be an option and might get a bit of logistical/admin Lufthansa assistance in the circumstances.

BCF

Soft Brexit requires a WA not this one. This one is hard Brexit and takes us out of the SM after transition.

Varoufakis’ situation was of no equivalence: Greece were in a dire economic situation and was offered an EU bail out which they refused. We were in a strong ecomomic situation with a great EU deal - which we threw away to demand a very poor deal instead. The WA comes from the U.K. not the EU.

If we accepted the WA - which is basically now bordering on a unicorn - once Raab or BoJo are ensconced we are not guaranteed even 2 years transition, they may just go hardcore No Deal from the off.

The question is actually whether we refuse No Deal for extension.

Interesting mind experiment to posit whether rUK would already have Brexited if 2014 had been Yes.

If 2014 had been a yes I don't think the tory party would have chanced another referendum.
Ed Milliband might even have won the 2015 election.

Sorry about your MiL Hassenstein - as well as all the stress the situation adds on

No DGR Indyref probably lost due to too much detail. They tried to counter all the Project Fear with a White Paper and lots of options for a pathway process - left too many hostages to fortune.

Admittedly I had no vote, but I don't recall there being any cast iron details on the choice of currency. In fact, my reading of that time was that the (lack of) clarity over currency seemed to trigger a little bit of infighting, and "let's kick the English" sentiment which wasn't helpful. With a lot of Indy fans appearing to chose not to listen to what was being said, and instead get all heated about "it's our pound too" ???

Just for perspective, the first mention of Brexit on the MSN.fr news summary is page 6.

www.msn.com/fr-fr/actualite/monde/brexit-pourquoi-le-sc%C3%A9nario-dun-%C2%ABno-deal%C2%BB-se-renforce/ar-BBVwbOf

We voted to Leave the EU. Full stop. It was made crystal clear that would mean leaving the customs union and single market.
The HOC is full of remain MPs, and they are not implementing the result of the referendum.
The Labour heartlands in the north overwhelmingly voted to leave, yet Labour MPs are voting essentially against Brexit all together!
This will not be forgotten if a GE is called, Labour face a wipeout.
Theresa May has made a dogs dinner of Brexit, she should have played hardball from the start with the EU bullies, instead she has been railroaded into this dreadful deal, a deal where we are not allowed to make trade deals, that splits our union and costs us £39 billion.
The only way forward is to support the Brexit Party.

WTO rules is nothing to fear, infact it something to look forward too. Overnight the cost of childrens clothes & footwear will drop, no nasty EU tax on them anymore.
Our companies can flourish with low corporation tax rates set by our government in direct competition to the high tax EU.
Britain will be free, we can be a great country again.
I dont understand why so many of you are all so full of doom, watching to much BBC and Sky news i suspect.

Whatevers ...

We have leavers wanting hard brexit, leavers wanting soft brexit, remainers wanting remain, and other remainers now saying we need to accept this WA or it will be disaster. I cannot see an answer.

This is what happens when the world runs out of places to invade and have far away wars. Ironic, really, given the bellicosity of Brexiteers.

@Hasenstein so sorry for your loss.

Sorry your insurance company are making more money out of you too. Would it be cheaper to go as foot passengers and then hire a car? No green card needed then. And do you have the (crappy cardboard) international driving permit?

Icant. I’m not sure if this was directed at me?
Howabout so ... they can't offer W.A vs remain on a ballot because you and they think they will be voted out in the next election?

If it is, I’m not the enemy here. I’m staunchly Remain and entirely fucked off with the lot of them.... but to answer

It’s not strictly because I or they think that. I think it is vanishingly unlikely that this government (or in fact any likely to win a snap GE or a leadership challenge ) would offer a referendum with a remain/revoke option. I think this for a combination of politicking (sp?) and other largely self serving (by them) reasons:

-the government are convinced that a BREXIT is the will of the people reference the referendum (and the last GE) and even if they are a bit unsure about that

• there is no solid evidence that another in/out referendum would yield a different result - and it would surley be even more devisive
• the Tory party would likely be ripped apart if they wobbled on a BREXIT
• the labour leadership are ideologically in favour of a leave and CU anyway
• no one has suggested another in/out vote, only putting the deal to the people

Of course they might all decide now is the time for home truths- to declare this a horrible idea, not in the public interest and switch to remain...

... but I really doubt it

I want to stay, I want to find a way. I fear we just won’t.

Hasenstein
We are in France from Apr 6-14.
Our green card was free, so I'm not sure why your insurance company are charging you?
You will also need an International Driving Permit(PO, £6, passport photo required). There are different ones for different countries so check out your route first.
EHIC cards will still be valid until no deal actually happens, so you might be alright. However, we get travel insurance too.
So sorry for your sad news x

hasenstein sorry for your loss.

Dana have you tried living in a low tax economy with minimal regulations?
I have and because we could pay for education, healthcare, police bribes, armed security etc we had a very nice quality of life. Our maid who left her dc to be raised by others so she could save money and give them an education and a future wasn't as lucky.
Downton Abbey isn't going to be fun for everyone you know.

Dana, It was April fools day yesterday...........

Cabinet have been at it for 7 hours

Yeah they've agreed what kind of sandwiches to.order for their snack at last

Morellokisses no it's directed at howabout

@Hasenstein

It doesn't matter to those who are gambling and playing chickens with others lives does it?

All we all really desire is some stability and certainty at this point.

And that's where we are being failed.

We have to carry on regardless somehow and politicians of all colours forgot this a long time ago.

Keep safe.

PS I know what it was like when my grandparents died in Germany and how hard that was to sort out for my mum and uncle. And that's without the additional stress.

Dana - are you the sole competitor in your own game of Brexit bingo?

Who wants to read about grown up politicians (obviously not in Westminster) ?

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47785258

For the first time since Greece's northern neighbour became independent in 1991, a Greek leader has visited the newly renamed North Macedonia.

PM Alexis Tsipras completed a deal in January to end their three-decade name row, and the two countries are now seeking to boost their relations.

Counterpart Zoran Zaev greeted him with a selfie outside government buildings.

"The first prime minister of Greece to visit North Macedonia. Truly historic day," he wrote on Twitter.

The Greek prime minister was accompanied by 10 ministers and more than 100 business leaders.

(contd)

maybe the UK and EU in 2047 ?

Sounds like cabinet discussing GE then.