Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

[RedToothBrush]

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

It looks like the markets are expecting no deal as the outcome.

It's unusual that there are no leaks coming out of the cabinet meeting. I'm concluding that it is very grave indeed.

Tempted to superglue my breasts to the security screen in the HoP with Boobs against Brexit scrawled on them. Because that was the only thing that seemed to wake them up in yesterday's debate.

My boobs are quite large.

I could fit a pretty good sized message on them...

havingtochangeusernameagain I'm flipping between 1 & 4, but I have ordered extra batteries, bottled water and yes, toilet rolls.

sos The EU are still trying to tell our ignorant MPs the facts, in the last few days left before No Deal:

• that unless they legislate for EP elections before about 10 April , then it's No Deal (or Revoke) on 12 April regardless of what else the UK decides

• that the WA is the price for future trade negotiations,

but the UK chooses whether this comes with the benefits of a transition, or while the UK economy is crashingb

chevvy Don't superglue those boobs to the HoC though
It sounded excruciating for those demonstrators and their bums

One of my cats has his head in his 'hands' - No Deal he thinks.

My boobs are quite large.

I could fit a pretty good sized message on them...

Especially when flattened against the glass! 😂

yes but those 2 months or real hardship will be enough to show Leavers what they actually voted for. Once it affects them we all know who's heads they will want on a plate. Even especially English yobs don't like feeling they were tricked.

Whose heads do you think the yobs will go and kick in? Those of Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Redwood, Davis, Fox... or the nearest Polish, Muslim, Black, Gay - or anyone who they think is a bit different?

The beef I have with the WA is that it is shite. I know its not up for negotiation now but I am sure that the EU would accept the WA without the damn red lines, which is why I am always banging on about it.

There is zero evidence - zero - that the EU will reopen the WA. And they'd be fucking stupid to even hint that they might.

These are just remainer unicorns. If you want a deal - Norway, Turkey, whatever - then work to get the WA over the line, with an amended political declaration if necessary.

If you think that is dangerous, then revoke or a long extension plus a people's vote is your ONLY route.

chevy, I’m “lucky” in the sense that I’m an EU citizen, so is DW, but from a different country. We’ve built a life here, but we could leave. I don’t want to and would want to fight for my right to stay. DW might not. Brexit is impacting every aspect of my life, and I’m genuinely devastated because the outlook is so bleak. But even if we did decide to just up and leave, I’m worried about my friends and neighbours, and the vulnerable members of society.
At least there’s the prospect of Scottish independence, and I know which way I’m going to vote.

Peregrina yep it’ll be the people next door who take the hit
Yobs are no where near enough to Boris / JRM to think of them - the inequality gap is too wide

Boobs seem to get the attention of a large part of the political establishment don't they?

More than boring policy.

Woke up this morning just as angry with Labour. They are just as much to blame for everything failing last night.

CU lost by 3 votes, but 10 Labour MPs voted against it.
Boles - 25 Labour voted against.
Kyle PV - 24 Labour voted against
Joanna Cherry - to give them credit, Scottish Labour did vote for this, but the majority abstained (including, correct me if I'm wrong, Yvette Cooper, who now has the cheek to try and bring her own prevent a no deal bill in!)

And Paul Sweeney had the bloody cheek to blame SNP on twitter this morning!

We are heading for no deal, as I've been sure of for the past 8 months. All this anxiety has taken years off my life, I'm sure of it. Yet still no-one I know seems to be that concerned?!

fluffy Ha!
I could probably get most of the first book of genesis on em if they are flattened :)

horseshit DC and I have EU passports. Dh doesn't.

(FT paywall) A government of national unity is another Brexit fantasy

Unlike the crises of the 1930s and WW2, politicians refuse to put the country before party, ego & ideology

https://www.ft.com/content/cddda1b4-5455-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c5b11^

There is no sign that either May or Corbyn is ready to make the compromises required
.....
^The details of a government of national unity are hazy, but in essence centrist MPs unite to deliver a consensus soft Brexit of the type MPs are already close to backing.
Such a path would almost certainly be popular and marginalise the Brexit extremists.
It might also speed the realignment of British politics. ^
^
What a pity, then, that it is not going to happen.^
^
Brexit has thrown up many seemingly impossible outcomes, but another look at the MacDonald government shows the conditions which make such an outcome highly unlikely.
^
The first is the character of the leaders.

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are no MacDonald and Baldwin.
Mrs May has shown she is willing to sacrifice herself, but there is no evidence she is ready to sacrifice her party to a compromise Brexit.

For the prime minister, a major attraction of her deal is that it is the only policy which does not ultimately fracture her party.^

The Labour leader is no better.^
He can barely bring himself to sit in a room with political opponents,
let alone serve under a sliver of a Tory government.

More important, Mr Corbyn does not view Brexit as the overarching political priority.
....
Mr Corbyn views Brexit as secondary to his own radical economic and foreign policy reforms.
Furthermore, he would see no political advantage in helping the Tories deliver Brexit.

His aim is to foster Tory splits and bring down the government.
So far it is going pretty well.
An early election is more likely than not.
< which won't help the country, but he doesn't care >

They said on R4 a few minutes ago that they’ve taken all the phones off the cabinet ministers today - shows how little trust there is

67chevy Christ. That is a shitty, shitty situation and I so wish your family finds a way to make it work despite everything.

I probably am being naive. I still have enough faith in the country to think if we No Deal and chaos ensues we have a more kind and thoughtful people on the whole than racist idiots. I was hopeful seeing the march that actually these are still the minority, good has prevailed. The only people who can't see it are the govt naval gazing with the ERG. I think if we had had a PV it would have shown reflection has taken place, for some leavers at least. Now DM is dropping the Project Fear for eg, now my leaver friend has admitted they are stockpiling meds, the general lack of enthusiasm for the march... I think if we are to do something it needs to be now rather than give leavers the chance to say we didn't 'really' Brexit. It's a paradox but I think I have more faith in the country doing the right thing under a No Deal.

Bruno Waterfield @brunobrussels
EU has calculated that this House of Commons or Conservative government cannot handle no deal as an option - even if there was to be a general election

I don't even know what this means anymore.

In reply to Bruno

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
UK is seen as a failed state.

I'm waiting until tomorrow night then I'm booking a flight out of the U.K. for my mum next week. I really think no deal is baked in now.

In fact my main issue with No Deal now is whether May would still resign...therein lies the rub for me.

In response to bruno

Katya Adler @ katyaadler
This has dictated EU stance in negotiations incl on backstop

Allie rennison @ allierennison
So this constant ramping up of "no deal more likely", issuance of notices to regulators etc to change legal requirements for how UK firms etc treated from day one is just (part of) a bluff or bluff-calling exercise on EU's part tho? Hmm.... @BrunoBrussels

Bruno Waterfield @brunobrussels
Not a bluff. If UK pulls the trigger they're ready for it. They don't want to pull the trigger though because of the political melt down