Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

[RedToothBrush]

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

Also re: lunatic asylum.

Firstly I am a 'lunatic' and I haven't run a country into the ground yet.

Secondly I've stayed in a psychiatric hospital twice, both times for months and I agree with born that it was peaceful, therapeutic and I met the most wonderful people there*

*It was private, I can't comment on NHS stays

marcipex 💐
Any fucker saying they'd rather No Deal, think of people like marcipex

That's why I'd never choose No Deal

Anything except Remain is pretty much the same for me personally.
Any kind of Brexit except SM+CU - total Brino - stops my FOM, but my Euro pensions & healthcare are safe (barring a global / European financial meltdown)

However, I can't flounce, say "screw you all, let's have No Deal" and just enjoy my life in Germany,
when I know how devastating No Deal would be for the most vulnerable in the UK

Worst case for the WA is we have transition until 1 Jan 2021 with the same EU benefits as now, except no votes in the EU - fine, as the UK can't be trusted atm

Even if an ERG PM just runs down the clock, the backstop and lifelong expat rights are legally biding - more important for the 3.5 million, as the E27 has promised UK expats can stay

More likely than the backstop being activated is a series of transitions, so probably a very slow decline, which many people won't notice,
rather than a life-changing crash over the cliff

Michel Barnier has said there are only 3 options:
1.WA
2.no deal

1. Ask for an extension. You have to explain why.

Referendum?
New Cross party arrangements ?
UK also has to take part in European elections

Will May ever actually make a decision and stick to it?

Preston is saying how important today’s Cabinet meeting is. And the choice is PV or No Deal as it’s unlikely she will get her deal through.

I just can’t see her making a decision 🤬

The UK would still have to accept the main WA terms even after No Deal

• the EU has decided they won't negotiate any mini-deals, let alone a proper trade deal until the UK signs up to the 3 most important components:

backstop, exit bill, expat rights

6 months after No Deal is about how long any UK govt could hold out without being able to even start negotiations

So anyone who hates say the backstop would still have to suck it up, but lose the benefits of transition

Could it be that if we end up with no deal, and it is so utterly awful and devastating that we will beg the EU to let us back in after a few months? Would they fast-track our rejoining (albeit with various provisos and penalties). The advantage of that would be that at least the majority of leave voters would finally realise that it wasn't just project fear after all and would get onboard rejoining.

{Even if an ERG PM just runs down the clock, the backstop and lifelong expat rights are legally biding - more important for the 3.5 million, as the E27 has promised UK expats can stay}
Although the EU has promised that this will be the case, it will not be put into law by member states until the WA (or remain) is agreed.
while I trust the EU a lot more than Westminster, a 'promise' is infinitely short of 'Law'.
i may be incorrect on this, and Germany might have put it into their legislation, but from my last reading France has not.

To someone at Westminster's credit, they had requested that citizens rights element of the WA be treated as a 'mini deal' but this has been rejected by Brussels.

ShowerOfBrexshit
There is an understanding that if the WA is passed the EU would allow full rejoining during transition, so that could be within 2 or 3 years, because the UK will be following EU legislation anyway.
If it crashes out then begging becomes the negotiating position.

Leclerc It just means UK expats will be dealt with by the individual countries, instead of having at least the WA minimum rights

In Germany at least, a promise that all UK expats can stay, backed by all parties - even the AfD don't object - is something you can take to the bank

The "settled status" of E27 expats in the UK - that could disappear the day a desperate UK govt needs another scaaepgoat

Also, UK expats who have been in their host countries for 5 years have the protection of EU law for non-EU citizens,
which gives them the right to stay

I'm writing to the Tiggers to beg them to compromise on supporting PV and softer Brexit options. Intending also to write to Letwin, Boles, Grieve etc. Is there any point in writing to Starmer? Or anyone else in Labour? Or the saner members of the cabinet?

My MP has been championing Common Market 2.0 for months, yet he seems to have voted against it last night! None of it makes the least bit of sense.

Could TM legislate for another MV on the PD to add to her WA?

Leaver friend just said to me she is annoyed because stockpiling meds for Spring is different to stockpiling meds for Summer weather . Seems like she is slowly realising implications. Took the opportunity to remind her this was self inflicted.

Does anyone know if there will be more indicative votes tomorrow ?

Pmk.

The Darwin Award for a country

Yes, that sums it up perfectly

The UK will be a horrible warning to every country in the world, not just the EU, that any country - no matter how stable the ruling class think it is - can be suddenly overwhelmed by a populist minority ...
AND
too many other people go nihilist as well

That's the problem from both extremes and from the bored & ignorant: choosing nihilism

Last Chance Saloon tomorrow, with the TIGs now showing they are the same old politics, the problem not the solution, if they continue to demand their own perfect solution whilst opposing everything else.

Maybe if we all superglued our arses to the security screen....?

Honestly I don't think there's any hope of Brexiters suddenly waking up and realising they were wrong even in a No Deal.

Between Leavers and the outcome of the Ashdown poll Red mentioned where 27% of people polled wanted a new harder right mainstream party I've come to realise that these people aren't a 'tiny minority'.

The ones who will be violent/riot are a minority. But they're backed by a pretty decent proportion of the population who want to cut all ties with the EU, are inward looking, anti-immigration, pro death penalty, etc.

I think I've been in denial but I can't deny any more that sadly this country (my country!) and the people in it aren't what I thought they were

I'm beyond sad about it. This and reading up on how the right wing use their much larger donations to manipulate the populace means I feel like I'm having some kind of esoteric, political crisis

Unless the UK votes to hold EP elections by 12 April, there will be no extension for a PV or GE

@wheresmymojo, Scotland is preferable because they're very like to break away from the Union and join the EU in their own right.

Apart from the fact it's an amazing country and I've some great friends in Glasgow who I miss, that's why I'd want to live there.

How does one get entry to the HoC public gallery?! I've looked out my best pants and super glue. If this countries going down, I'm getting my 15 minutes of dubious fame first!

mojo Once people start suffering from the crash, there will be far more joining that 27% in fascism

We should have learned from Germany in the 1930s that many angry, frightened people who have lost everything also lose their empathy and their moral sense

Those choosing No Deal should be aware of what they are opening the doors to.

@PickleSarnie, don't wreck your best pants in the process. I'd buy a nice new pair specifically for the purpose if I were you! 😂

I would imagine part of the discussion for the Cabinet this morning is whether they're going to put the necessary EP legislation to the HoC.

It's such a clusterfuck.

Thank you leclerc. Just desperately trying to find any tiny ray of hope about a no deal scenario.

Maybe TM is prepared to go no deal for this very reason. She knows that the only way leavers would swing round to pro-EU-ness would be by experiencing the horror of no deal. After all she did reportedly say that leavers had voted for pain. Could it be that she is putting the country before party in a bizarre way? She knows that a change in the mindset of leavers is the only way to bring about positive change? Even if it causes the downfall of her party.

Probably not but I have to cling onto some hope!

I keep wishing I could have a Pam Ewing moment and wake up to find Bobby stepping out of the shower!