Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

[RedToothBrush]

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

Christ, even Corbyn compromised yesterday, those that didn't are not doing themselves any favours.

I don't know why Remainers so desperate to be part of the EU don't bloody listen to what all the EU leaders are telling you 🤦🏻‍♀️

mother The EU has been saying for months that any Brexit requires the WA and so do any post-Brexit No Deal negotiations

It was also in the leaked memo red and I both posted a few days ago

Barnier is just stating what has been EU policy for months

Guy Verhofstadt is another from the EU warning that No Deal is now “nearly inevitable”.

“On Wednesday, the UK has a last chance to break the deadlock or face the abyss^"

When I have been inside the HOC (dining rooms/tea rooms) it has struck me as a cross between an old fashioned lunatic asylum and a boys public school

Firstly I am a 'lunatic' and I haven't run a country into the ground yet

I was referring to the institution not the patients wheresmymojo and specifically an old fashioned one, no longer in existence in this country.

MPs are 'cared for'/ managed by the institutions of the house and the HOC workers, in ways the public don't see, but which does little for their independence of thought or action. There are a lot of staff, backstage.

Yesterday, for example Grieve and Soubry were prevented from getting to the Revocation debate of the petition as Leadsom had deliberately timed the presentation of the IV motions to coincide with the debate.

No tories attended that debate.

Institutionalised powerlessness and enabled amorality a la boys public school.

I would never cast aspersions on anyone for illness, Wheresmy apologies if you felt that way.

Red mentioned where 27% of people polled wanted a new harder right mainstream party I've come to realise that these people aren't a 'tiny minority

Applebaum has stats on this. Isn't it normal to have 20% of population thus disposed?

If 10 years of battering by extremist press and SM have only got them up by 7% doesn't seem much to me.

The messy little display on Friday in Westminster was mainly a few thousand drunk white men.

Just a normal english weekend really.

It all comes down to Politics.

If you are a moderate, you superglue your pants to the glass so they have to cut your pants off to free you.

If you are a fundamentalist, you glue your arse on and they have to take you and the screen to Casualty for surgery.

'even Corbyn compromised yesterday, those that didn't are not doing themselves any favours.'

The Tories. They compromised barely a jot. They really will be the ruin of this country.

Sorry woman I can be a bit sensitive about it, mainly because I've been fortunate enough to have a serious mental illness (bipolar) and be a top 1% earner type so I guess I feel a responsibility to always speak up...which then leads to me being sometimes quite quick (sometimes too quick) to call out anything to do with MH.

mojo I feel exactly the same way about the country - by which I mean specifically England of course. It's desperately sad. As I said last night I will be jumping ship as soon as I can. Just got to get ds through the last couple of years of school and then we'll be off.

I want my country back, but sadly that ain't gonna happen any time soon.

A bit slow in getting started so ignore the first 30 seconds.

Too depressed to post last night.

Spent a sleepless night.

No idea what to do from here.

Start stockpiling again I guess.

mother The EU have repeatedly said the WA cannot be changed
I think it's time to listen to them

Especially about the backstop
It is so obvious that Uk politicians cannot be trusted about Ireland

The backstop doesn't matter, unless negotiations about a future agreement fail - in which case it is desperately needed

I don't understand why you can be so confident that an SM+CU / Norway-type solution would work
and yet so lacking in confidence that you won't accept ireland / EU having an insurance policy in case it doesn't

You seem to want to put all the risk of failure onto Ireland, which isn't fair
If UK politicians screw up, why should we make a little neighbour pay for it ?

Motheroffourdragons
As I have said several times I would anticipate that there could be some 'wriggle' on the WA but ONLY after it has been signed up as it stands. A hell of a lot of legal work, covering the wishes of all 27/28 countries is incorporated into the WA so they will NOT open it now for the UK's convenience. The negotiators would not suggest there might be any wiggle at the present because they know the UK would badger them to start now. BCF doubts my view but ultimately after the shouting is over and the WA is signed non damaging 'fudge' tends to be the way of the EU if it can be shown to be mutually beneficial.

Back to the stockpiling; if the WA doesn't pass whenever she brings it back I seriously hope that she will encourage people to get supplies in. Even a couple of warehouses emptying out and re-stocking due to 'forward purchasing' could give us a few weeks extra. Probably naive but it's more worrying to me that people still aren't prepared and don't see any need to have extras in. I gave a slightly hippy friend who is known to be forgetful a bag of long-life 'extras' over the weekend because although she can see it will be a mess she hasn't quite got to the point of realising she might not just be able to pop out and get bits. Luckily she didn't see it as patronising and seemed grateful. She is the one who's dad who apparently lectures and is 'high up' the food chain for agri suggested she just buy another tin or two of chopped tomatoes .

Feeling stagnant here.

Barnier's speech & video here:

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/11129635120857251855_

Nick Gutteridgege@nick*kgutteridge

Barnier says a long extension 'would carry significant risks for EU
therefore strong justification would be needed'.

He says 'many businesses in EU warn us against the cost of extending uncertainty'.

UK staying in longer also 'could pose a risk on our decision making autonomy'.
....
Barnier on the Irish border:

'We're working and looking at operational ways and where we can implement the necessary checks to protect the Single Market.

We have to implement everywhere at each and every external border of the EU three types of controls to protect consumers.'
.....
Barnier: 'During any long extension there will be no renegotiation of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, no, never.

There will be no negotiation about the future relations we cannot legally speaking negotiate with a Member State about the future relations.
It's as simple as that.'
.....
Barnier wraps up by saying:
"Jean-Claude Juncker said yesterday the patience of the EU is at the limit.
Personally as the negotiator I have some patience left"

.

Leclerc I see no wiggle in the WA, escept on very minor details
That is what politicians here in Germany say - and remember that all 27 countries would have to agree changes
It is closed. Fertig. Finis.

We should not pretend otherwise
The backstop is what is causing almost all this angst and that will not change in the slightest

What could be negotiated - if the UK wanted - is to have extension of transition as an alternative to the backstop
However, we would need UK politics ^to change for that

I've just seen a clip of Steve Baker saying 'Well everyone knows i’m Brexit Hardman Steve Baker...' and that about sums up the level of twatty idiocy we're up against.

Last thread has 1000 posts, so reply to indistinct

A non-binding PD is all that is possible, because noone can legislate for something that takes years of future negotiations to happen,
especially if one side wants to run out time

A legally binding treaty must be precisely defined in legal text
The backstop would be legally binding because it can be defined precisely now.
Noone can specify all the details of say a future CU or SM deal, which could take 10-15 years to complete

It would be thrown out by any court as unenforceable

• and someone would certainly take it to court, if the UK & EU were daft enough to try

BCF
Yes I would not expect a significant change, maybe relaxing of a 'deadline' for specific purposes by a month or just some tweak that makes things run smoother, definitely no significant alteration.
I fully accept that it is closed now.

btw, the EU would never agree to extend for several years until the future treaty is fully negotiated and approved

because obviously the UK - or Spain, France etc - could use its votes and vetos to block all EU business at each stage of the negotiations, to get its own way

That's why A50, or any successor, would never include more than a "framework" for a future relationship,
with detailled negotiations for the trade deal to be carried out only after the member country has left

ultimately it doesn’t matter.

You can blame hardcore remainers or hardcore leavers, you can suggest we all need to support the WA and that it’s the only way forward.

But we have absolutely no say. We are st the mercy of the government and the HOC.

If it ever goes to a PV then it’s a totally different situation.

I've just been in tears in the car listening to a guy who called into LBC.

Paralysed from the shoulders down after a spinal cord injury - he has 2 24 hour carers who work 2 weeks on, 2 weeks off. One is Eastern European.

He doesn't have family in the UK and his carers need specific skills.

He has no idea whether she will be allowed to stay, he's contacted agencies he's used previously when he's needed cover for his carers being ill and they can't commit to being able to offer what he needs either because of their reliance on European citizens.

Within hours of not having a carer around he would be in great discomfort. Within 48 hours he'd either have to be in hospital or would be dead.

He doesn't have any certainty about what will happen. What would Brexiters say to him?

I suspect the WA could be changed if the UK Government scrapped some of its red lines. What they won't change is the trying to renegotiate to make it worse.