Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

BCF wouldnt we need regulatory alignment for that?

poster No, the reason for those checks is that after Brexit the Uk would not be aligned, unless we have a BRINO
If we have an SM+CU BRINO, then the backstop would never need to be activated

Promising to stay aligned isn't enough:
the EU wants its system of internal inspections, following all the SM regulations, adjudication by ECJ etc, no possibility of non-compliant goods entering the Uk ...

All of that basically amounts to BRINO

ah ok, couldnt have read it right sorry

The cruelty in the system for the poor & vulnerable in the Uk isn't because of immigration, or the EU:

It's because people keep voting to lower taxes, to bash people on benefits, call them "scroungers"
and this results in a merciless hard right (economically) Tory govt

Tightening up immigration doesn't stop that, because immigrants aren't the problem
In fact E27 immigrants are an overall economic benefit, producing more than they take

This needs to happen sooner rather than later

twitter.com/VauxhallLabour/status/1111951596601180160

This EU diplomatic note (obv. official leak !) seen by Guardian Brussels corresp
fits in with what I've been hearing in Germany for months:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/eu-uk-brexit-choices-no-deal-delay

... much of Thursday’s meeting was dedicated to no-deal planning and preparing a common opening position ahead of a meeting of EU leaders expected to take place next month.

Should there be a no-deal, the EU would set the UK three preconditions to enter trade talks the note states:

•	Ensuring that Britain abides by its financial commitments  - the so-called Brexit bill part of the agreement;
•	Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens in the UK as well as of Britons working and residing elsewhere in the EU;
•	Finding a solution that keeps open the border in Northern Ireland along the lines of the arrangement in the withdrawal agreement, <strong>meaning the backstop</strong>

• the insurance policy that ensures that the border in Ireland remains open under all circumstances.

In effect, Britain would be asked to sign up to terms very similar to those contained in the Brexit agreement

The European Commission warned the ambassadors from the member states against entering bilateral sectoral negotiations with the UK.

If the link works and interesting take on the Tingers

twitter.com/i/status/1098592619255468033

I just read the NCF motion for Kate Hoey passed last summer

Fox hunting supporter
Grammar school supporter
Has received funding from Arron Banks
Worked for BoJo when he was mayor

Obvs I don't know whether these are accurate but....how is she even a Labour Party member at all?

Its interesting isn't it?

This notion of the "deserving " vs the "undeserving poor"...

The right wing press and Tories have been very successful in this regard.

It's a concept that has really gained traction in our new austerity riven society,

I thought to myself earlier that you can tell that brino is the best outcome we can hope for...because it makes both die hard leavers and remainers so angry.

interesting take on the Tingers

Bog-standard corbynista reaction to the tiggers tbh. Is that your twitter account?

Is she a Corbynista? Lol no it isnt my twitter

*This notion of the "deserving " vs the "undeserving poor"...

The right wing press and Tories have been very successful in this regard.*

So successful that Labour has had to play them at their own game (with migrants in the role of the "undeserving").

You're not wrong

For me as a Labour Leaver I can accept Remain with Labour in charge if they restrict employment enough to make importing cheap labour uneconomic

I suspect we return to the fact that if the UK had actually implemented the restrictions on FoM that are available to EU members, everyone would be happy.

If anyone wants a reality check as to the waste of time of the past two years, it's the number of Leavers who now accept they were wrong in their understanding of FoM as being a gigantic free-for-all after it being explained almost daily in the first few months after 2016 ....

Robert Hutton @ robdothutton
Tory members don't like Dominic Grieve because he's thwarting Brexit by voting against May's deal

Tory members don't like Nick Boles because he's thwarting Brexit by voting for May's deal

Tory members love Steve Baker because he's delivering Brexit by voting against May's deal

The thing that bugs me most about Labour right now is that from a left-wing perspective the one really, really, really bad part of the WA is not the backstop, but what it does to citizens' rights. It trashes the rights of both EU citizens in the U.K. - who will be exposed to the full force of the hostile environment, especially if they are poor or uneducated - and of Britons in Europe.

Guess which bit of the WA Labour doesn't have a problem with?

Theyve already said multiple times that they guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK

I'm just....baffled.

Labours part in this clusterfuck is incomprehensible to me.

What could they have done differently and thats a genuine question every time I try and follow to the end all the different options they all seem to end up at 'Labours stealing your Brexit' narrative

Theyve already said multiple times that they guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK

But this is a lie.

Rights are not preserved, and even rights that are theoretically still available will not be accessible for some applicants. And there is no appeal process, no judicial oversight, and EU citizens are required to agree to the govt giving their data away to private businesses before they can even apply.

I think they have said that they hope to guarantee some of the rights. Nothing has been passed into law as far as I am aware. Given the way the Government has been and continues to behave, I wouldn't trust what they say until the Royal Assent is given.

I could add that they don't need the EU to agree to this - they could do it now if they chose.

{Theyve already said multiple times that they guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK}
Until it is written into law that statement is totally meaningless, have we learned nothing over the last 3 years.
Black is white, up is down, left is right.
Until the WA or Revoke is signed, the EU view on this is also not written into law of all individual countries. Good intentions, yes but not law.

Peregrina, even if the currently proposed rights are passed into law, this will be a substantial loss of rights for EU citizens even assuming they all get settled status (those who don't will end up with no rights).