Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

Poster00 agree with that, but one of the impediments to that has been Labour and its non-existent "jobs first Brexit". This was not really about anything else but free movement - basically, appeasing the anti-migrant faction in the party by pretending that there was a non-damaging Brexit on offer that ended free movement but permitted frictionless trade. There wasn't and there isn't.

If Labour had been honest two years ago it might have been possible for a coalition to emerge around a soft Brexit.

I don't think there is much wrong with the WA tbh -

The best thing about it, is how far it is from the Brexit that Farage, Gove and JRM were angling for when they stirred up this shitstorm.

It's also a powerful totem for the impossibility of any Brexit, if "Brexit" is supposed to leave the UK better off, rather than worse off.

Think about it: without a single letter, comma or full stop being changed, it's gone from being the worst deal in history, to something JRM, Gove and BoJo voted for. The only other thing I can think of that can cause people to change around it without changing itself is the Holy Grail.

Just leave that there ....

It's such a beautiful day that we nipped to the garden centre and went on the miniature railway too.
I do like to nail my colours to the mast

I agree mother and in any case the trust that the WA would persist is surely gone for all sides. See Yanis on QT talking sense - unlike Greece we are not tied to the Euro and not reliant EU loan rescheduling. If they really do refuse to trade with us till we starve the balance of payments may even sort itself out a bit.

I thought the point of the post WA transition was that nothing actually changes during that period?

What we do know is that we don't need a backstop if we stay as we are during any transition

That's not how the process works, though. The trade deal won't be negotiated until the U.K. has left, which means that at the point of leaving there is no certainty regarding the end point. There will need to be protection for Ireland built into any withdrawal agreement, and the U.K. has proved itself a very unreliable partner.

The changes, if any, will be to the PD. I don't believe that the WA will change unless we revoke and at some later point initiate a new A50.

If Labour had been honest two years ago it might have been possible for a coalition to emerge around a soft Brexit.

Personally (interesting we appear to already have decided as a country this is the recrimination stages ....) I think the idea of a consensus around a "soft Brexit" is as much a unicorn hunt as anything else.

It might have been possible if the referendum had delivered a 70-30 win for Leave. But it was never going to happen when to all intents and purposes the real split was 50/50 and the UK simply doesn't have the social sophistication to deal with referendums that close.

Some of my first posts on this forum were to state that I had no motivation or intention to help any Leaver get what they wanted. I'm still of that mind now. Besides what more do the fuckers want (apart from a 4th or 5th vote) ? They had their election. They got their government. They led the negotiations. What more ? A soapy tit wank into the bargain ?

Misti what is a "soft Brexit" acceptable to you though?

For me as a Labour Leaver I can accept Remain with Labour in charge if they restrict employment enough to make importing cheap labour uneconomic, raise taxes enough to redistribute resource to areas of high immigration, build a tonne of social housing etc etc etc. Soft Brexit delivers none of that but perpetuates the problems as far as I can see.

Just heard Grieve on R4.

The party meeting expressing No Confdence in him was dominated by the guy who stood against him for UKIP at the 2017 election, who then joined the local association with the stated intention of doing this.

In Disraeli's old constituency. He must be doing 78rpm.

Personally (interesting we appear to already have decided as a country this is the recrimination stages ....) I think the idea of a consensus around a "soft Brexit" is as much a unicorn hunt as anything else.

I was specifically talking about parliament, which is dominated by remainers most of whom think that they must somehow "respect the referendum" - so a soft EEA+ Brexit seemed an obvious compromise. Three years ago I'd have put good money on this outcome.

Of course outside Parliament the leave camp was never going to compromise - they had been trying and failing to come up with a plan for 20 years, and the only leaver with anything resembling a workable policy was a crank(y) ex food inspector whose main talent was for falling out with everyone.

I think many remainers would have compromised - but most have since been radicalised (including me). I'd prefer to risk no deal rather than take May's deal now, because taking May's deal puts the real prize out of reach.

by-passing the membership to anoint TM as Leader and PM hasn't turned out so well.

But they didn't exactly by pass the membership, did they? It was down to Treeza and Loathsome, and then Loathsome opened her big mouth to be thoroughly nasty about TM not having children. She then withdrew. Are you suggesting that the men in suits came for her? The Tory rules didn't allow the third placed to step up, so that there was an election.

I'd prefer to risk no deal rather than take May's deal now, because taking May's deal puts the real prize out of reach.

Me too. So I was pleased with yesterday's outcome.

Peregrina you really think AL wasn't stitched up? I'm even prepared to believe MG, especially on recent form, stabbed himself and Boris on purpose to install TM. Either that or MG believed he could get in and act exactly as TM has.

Mother If we exit with No Deal, the EU will require as preconditions that we sign up to at least the 3 main WA elements

• the backstop, the exit bill, expat rights - before they even start negotiations on any future trade deal

So No Deal means accepting the backstop you hate, but losing all the benefits of transition and negotiating from position of dreadul weakness

• transition is only legally possible to agree before we Brexit, not afterwards

Well, the men in suits must have decided that they cannot allow the membership to vote, because they would overwhelmingly support Loathsome. www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/06/andrea-leadsom-resists-pressure-to-publish-tax-returns

restrict employment enough to make importing cheap labour uneconomic, raise taxes enough to redistribute resource to areas of high immigration, build a tonne of social housing etc etc etc.

Don't understand your first point, but all the rest is compatible with both remain and an EEA Brexit. U.K. public spending is somewhere around 36-38% of GDP, it's closer to 50% in the Scandinavian countries which might be the sort of model the left could agree on. Plenty of scope to do that within either the EU or EEA depending on which way you swing.

(Though actually the area of highest immigration is London, and I guess you are not proposing redistributing resources to the SE.)

Your idea is in fact basically the same as an ERG suggestion, transition without a WA, with pay for access

The EU have specifically said that there is no transition without the WA

Bigchoc we are already unilaterally guaranteeing WA level citizens rights, have offered to pay for access (EU currently refusing) and EU / Ireland / UK all saying No Hard Border with or without WA.

Yes, I do think AL was stitched up, but did she have to give them the needle and thread to do it with?

I don't know about Boris and Gove. Boris is a lazy so and so, and knew he didn't want the poisoned chalice. Did anyone really expect TM to behave the way she has done? Her HO behaviour shows that she has a nasty side, but the latest shenanigans were surely totally unpredictable?

There will be a hard border in the Irish sea in a no deal, so it'll be the WA without the benefits.

I don't really understand why after 2 years people don't realise that without a withdrawal agreement there is no future relationship. This was literally the very first thing that the UK conceded to - that the WA came first and the future relationship only after Brexit - it was David Davis's "row of the summer" that wasn't.

Less than 8,000 signatures needed to get to 6,000,000.

There will be a backstop
The question is whether we have it during the WA transition, or after a No Deal crash when we come to the EU desperate for a deal

If the UK negotiates an SM+CU as you wish, basically BRINO, the backstop woul never be activated

This tweet from BBC Brussels sums up the issue

Nick Gutteridgee@nick*_gutteridge

EU view:

'The UK's reasoning is if the future relationship breaks down then they must be able to get out of the backstop.

Our reasoning is the opposite. That's precisely when we'll need it.'

howabout There would not be a hard border, in the sense of a fence with guards,
but this is probably what either UK / RoI or NI / GB goods border would mean

• in fact it was Barnier explaining the GB / NI backstop, but same principle wherever the goods border is:

NI exports to GB would face no changes to current system

GB exports to NI trade with NI-only backstop exülained by Barnier

https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barniers-zen-brexit/

"The EU proposes to carry out these checks in the least intrusive way possible.

For customs and VAT checks, we propose using the existing customs transit procedures to avoid doing checks at a physical border point.

Let me be more specific on this point,
because I think many of your companies are or could be concerned by these future relations.

Companies in the rest of the U.K. would fill in their customs declarations online and in advance when shipping bulk goods to Northern Ireland.

The only visible systematic checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K. would involve scanning the barcodes on the lorries or containers, which could be done on ferries or in transit ports."

Barnier noted that similar internal checks already take place as a matter of routine, with no political worries.

“These arrangements already exist within EU member states, in many of our countries, in particular those with islands, for example between mainland Spain and the Canary Islands"

howabout
Mrs T said 'The Lady's not for turning'.
The current Lady makes a corkscrew look straight.
Citizens rights, as they are now has not been written into law post Brexit by the EU or the UK. Being on a 'to do' list is not satisfactory.