Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

'So is that MAGA at our expense Salmon ?'

It certainly will be won't it? If the Brexiters think the EU are harsh negotiators they ain't seen nothin' yet.

howabout No confusion at all that Grieve, like Boles, can stay a Tory MP until the next GE - if they wish

The question is whether Tory HQ will force the local parties to keep them as the official candidate in the next GE

The question arises, if the UK is going 'hard right', will the EP want the UK to remain anywhere near the position of influence in the EU

48% voted remain. 6 million have signed the revoke petition. Another million marched. We are a long way from the hard right. Yes there is a hard right fringe which is not as small as we would like but as a whole, not that many. Just some angry noisy people.

Aww there there did I hurt your feeling so that you had to resort to whataboutism?

LOL. I like winding up corbynistas about Corbyn's failure to oppose the central plank of Tory policy in this parliament. They are always curiously reluctant to engage on this point.

I wonder if the Tingers will stand in EP elections rather than face wipe out in a GE or if they will seek to recruit for EP to build a bigger base for GE?*

Apparently they are looking to field candidates from outside politics for the EP if they get the opportunity.

I think they could do well in EP elections if they are held. GE will be a lot more tricky unless there is a GE before Brexit and both main parties stand on a pro-Brexit manifesto.

I like winding up corbynistas about Corbyn's failure to oppose the central plank of Tory policy in this parliament.

I'm not wound up, I'm happy to admit to his many failings especially on Brexit but he has managed to shift public opinion, certainly younger voters, to the left but I'm sure he'll have bled a lot of the support he had at the 2017 GE by the time we have the next

I listened to John Bolton, Trump's National Security Warmonger Adviser, yesterday (can't remember if it was Sky or the state broadcaster) being interviewed yesterday about Brexit and trade deals amongst other things.

He was as clear as clear could be that the US is looking forward to doing deals with the UK as the EU stops the Us getting what it wants. He wants the balance of trade to start going in the US's favour.

If someone tells you who they are, listen

I'm not wound up, I'm happy to admit to his many failings especially on Brexit but he has managed to shift public opinion, certainly younger voters, to the left but I'm sure he'll have bled a lot of the support he had at the 2017 GE by the time we have the next

I don't agree with that. I think he managed to engage young voters who were already natural supporters of many of his policies but were not politically active - so far so good - but then he chucked that down the toilet by not opposing the Tories on Brexit. His popularity with young people has been falling, not surprisingly, because they were sold a more honest, more collaborative, kinder politics and it turned out to be more of the same - narrow party interests ahead of the interests of members and the electorate.

Brexit isn't an easy issue for Labour - the party leadership (maybe not Corbyn but certainly his strategists) know Brexit will be worse than austerity for many of their electors, yet Labour represents many of the most strongly leave-voting constituencies. I do have some sympathy for the predicament, but the complete lack of political courage and also the callous disregard for the best interests of their voters makes me angry.

I see that the thread advertising the violent fascist event, attended by proscribed groups, in Westminster yesterday is still up.

And even more strangely it hasn't been hidden here in the brexit bit of mums net.

Even Face Book has given lip service to removing this sort of thing.

Not convinced Conservative HQ can "force" constituencies to adopt a particular candidate even if they can restrict the shortlist. In any event with a split Parliamentary Party let alone a disconnect with the membership I don't see them doing it - by-passing the membership to anoint TM as Leader and PM hasn't turned out so well.

Misti I think part of the problem they've had with brexit was if they came out in support of any anti brexit measure to early I think it would have given the tories the ability to change the narrative to 'Labour's trying to steal your brexit' at least the party is now supporting a PV albeit Corbyn less so but he's abiding by the conference motion but I personally think to little to late.

Misti if JC had at any point gone Full Remain he would have united the Tory Party and the DUP and the WA or any harder version of Brexit would have got through ages ago. There would also have been enough non-Corbyn Labour defectors to cancel out die-hard Tory Remainers. The Opposition is there to oppose in the most effective way possible, not act like enabling Cleggers in the "National Interest".

As a Labour voting Leaver I credit Corbyn / Sir Keir with blocking WA. Whether that leads to Revoke / No Deal / Labour Brexit after Delay and PV is more up for debate.

X-post justanother.

howabout as a Labour voting Remainer I agree

{The WA as it stands is not good enough.}
The WA as it stands is all the UK is going to get, unless it revokes or crashes out.
Refusing to understand this is pointless.

Howabout yes completely agree that it's been a difficult issue for Labour. But that doesn't excuse lying to voters about a "jobs first Brexit" or enabling the Tories in the hope that Labour can pick up the pieces after a crash and burn. I want more from a left wing party than playing the electorate for narrow political advantage.

But that doesn't excuse lying to voters about a "jobs first Brexit"

Without having Treeza's red lines who knows what Starmer would have negotiated and I think he's a damn sight more competent than any of the brexit secretaries that have tried so far including Treeza herself

I know the EU have said it is not negotiable - but if we were to suggest much the same as we are today

That's called remain. If that's not what you meant then you are deep into unicorn territory here.

I don't think there is much wrong with the WA tbh - it's compatible with a soft Brexit while giving the EU and Ireland some protection from whichever incompetent ideologue takes over from May - except insofar as agreeing it means leaving the EU.

who knows what Starmer would have negotiated

The Brexit models on offer to Starmer would be exactly the same as those on offer to anyone else - any step on the Barnier staircase chart. We have known what they are for two years.

I don't disagree that he would have been a much better Brexit Secretary (the bar is set extremely low). But he would still have to work with the options on offer from the EU.

The Brexit models on offer to Starmer would be exactly the same as those on offer to anyone else - any step on the Barnier staircase chart. We have known what they are for two years.

Exactly but Treeza self inflicted red lines is what has got us to the shit show were currently in, and I think there would have been a better outcome had the UK built trust during the process and not the belligerence that was displayed by the Tory party

My little EU trough 🇪🇺

Nice. Bercow I've been planting out tomato plants in the lovely sunshine today.