Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

It seems to me that those dreading no deal think it will be no deal and those dreading no brexit think it will be no brexit

I would love no Brexit, am dreading no deal but think it will be a long extension. IF our MPs get their act together.

David Allen Green held a poll on Twitter and 61% thought it would be a long extension. He asked what people thought would happen rather than what they wanted to happen. Of course there may be some wishful thinking.

Howabout See, there are a few things we agree on - but maybe for different reasons!

The Labour MPs who voted for No Deal: Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey (who is really DUP albeit in a "safe" Labour seat ) and Dennis Skinner.

havingtochange if people genuinely believe that there will be a long extension, surely they simply haven’t been paying attention? I think the one certainly in all of this mess is that the rest of the EU aren’t going to let this continue on for much longer. Don’t you?

There’s stuff trending about a National Government, which is what we need. These tend to aim at centre ground🙏

In that case I reckon at least KH (for same rationale as DUP) and DS (to block Tory GE win) would change to Revoke rather than WA plus.

I think the Scottish Tories flipping to the WA yesterday was a major strategic error which will lose them Remainers and Leavers in Scotland.

There was a good section on Sky News about Grieve. The matter now goes to the local Tory party association executive council. They decide what action to take, if any. The interview was with the former deputy chair I think. He explain it was clearly a co-ordinated campaign by UKIP to oust Grieve.

To be honest what scares me more about Brexit now is the rising fury of the growing hard right. If we don’t leave the EU, that will be the basis for it. If we leave but BRINO, the narrative will be the betrayal. If we leave with no deal they’ll feel that they’ve been proven right and more empowered.

How has it come to this.

There was a fascinating article I read a couple of years ago about how history was repeating itself and we weren’t paying attention. Can’t find it now though.

Apparently the ex UKIPer guy who orchestrated the ousting is also a pantomime producer. Seems apt.

I feel such loathing towards Cameron for this

The far right ugliness that will be validated on his head be it

So annoyed

I hope I’m wrong but if it gets worse I’ll despair

Place-marking.

I wish I had discovered these threads sooner.

George Osborne has tweeted re Grieve saying 'Tory leadership can stop any deselection if it wants - we frequently did. CCHQ should suspend the local party'. So there is a route to keep Grieve but he needs support from the top. Lots of supportive tweets from both Labour and Tories. They might realise it's not a good look for them, although May doesn't seem particularly good at listening and won't want to take advice from Osborne.

That's what I posted: Tory central office can still stop deselection
BUT
they have also been infiltrated and / or pander to the hard right taking over the party

To be honest what scares me more about Brexit now is the rising fury of the growing hard right. If we don’t leave the EU, that will be the basis for it. If we leave but BRINO, the narrative will be the betrayal. If we leave with no deal they’ll feel that they’ve been proven right and more empowered.

It is unfortunately a global trend, including within the EU (Hungary
Poland, Italy) . I'm not sure moderate liberal democracy will win but all we can do is be aware of the threat and counter it wherever we can, for instance by engaging with democratic processes and engaging in discussions. It's certainly not a reason to give in to them. History taught us appeasement does not work.

{To be honest what scares me more about Brexit now is the rising fury of the growing hard right. If we don’t leave the EU, that will be the basis for it.}
The question arises, if the UK is going 'hard right', will the EP want the UK to remain anywhere near the position of influence in the EU?
I realise the EP constitution allows diverging views but there must be a point where it becomes dangerous.

I was hacked! Have had to change passwords etc! Thought I wasn't going to get on anymore!

Good EOW summary, more optimistic than I am about avoiding No Deal:

Peter Foster@pmdfoster (Telegraph, sane bit)

So a quick end of week thread at the end of another momentous #Breit day...which puts us another step closer to the cliff.

Perhaps closer than some realise.

1/Thread

May has lost badly enough that talk of MV4 looks pretty optimistic.

The door to May 22 extension closes...and the one to a long extension opens, with #EUCO in April 10.

That requires two things... /2

1. That the U.K. agrees to hold European Parliament elections on May 23-26

2. Per Mar #EUCO concs, that the U.K. “indicates a way forward”. /3

3. requires a statutory instrument to go through Parliament.

4. requires the Government (not Parliament, unless is takes over the executive) to come up with a plan. /4

The first of those looks doable, on the basis that
not even this bunch of dimwits we call Parliament is dumb enough to vote against May’s deal,
and a “no deal” (160-400)
and then refuse to back EU elections...

pls someone confirm that. /5

So then we come to the second part.
The plan.

Can the soft #Brexit factions unite around a plan?

Right now, they’re all fighting.
CU crowd losing support of PV types;
Norway nobs trying to do better next time.

In short, ^no guarantees of a winner still. /6
^
And if there was a winner, would @theresamay accept it?

Maybe she would a CU, but surely not a PV or Norway...

A Tory PM puts over a Red #Brexit with a dash of blue?

Or would she call a General Election? /7

But more importantly, would she do that - or any of this - by Monday week?

bCoz that’s when DonaldTusk’s office says it wants the details - to prepare draft texts and circulate them.

Which means.... /8

There must be a high risk she gets to #euco unable to indicate much of a way forward?

Can I have time for a leadership contest?

That might lead to a General Election - but almost certainly means a harder line Tory leader
(and maybe Brussels’s bete noire Boris).../9

And certainly another 9 months of incoherence and chaos.

So question, if you’re Emmanuel Macron?
Is that a plan? /10

Because I note audible disconnect between Brussels and London on risk of a “no deal”.

Yes, threshold is reasonably low to get extension if we agree to elections. But the bar is not set at zero. /11

There is a complacency in Westminster among MPs that it’s a rubber stamp job...but that might be a careless and dangerous assumption to make.

Anyone listening to @StefaanDeRynck at today @UKandEU event in London would not have been reassured. /12

Sabre-rattling perhaps, but remember that Commission won the argument on a hard-ass legalistic approach to U.K. holding EP elections...
partly because leaders have had enough...after all the shenanigans and flip-flops of the last three months. /12

Even major voices urging flexibility - including Angela Merkel- need the Brits to provide them with coherent ammunition to counter the Macron faction.

Is the offer of another nine months of noise and chaos from London so attractive? /13

Does it help business plan?

Does it reward those who, say, bought forward factory holidays to March 29 to have the uncertainly prolonged?

Does it help the next EU Commission get on with its reform agenda? /14

And if you’re Mr Macron with an eye on the polls, does a British no-deal shitshow ending May 7, say, help you crush the populist threat at home?

Might be short-term thinking, but these are politicians remember? /15

Do I think ‘no deal’ the most likely course? No.

But can this government make a big enough hash of this to clinch the argument that the prudent course for the EU is actually to cut the cord.

Yes I do. /16

As I said at the top.

We are closer to the #Brexit cliff -edge than the Parliamentary majority against a ‘no deal’ would suggest.

Key players are willing to help us avoid that.
But we have to help them, help us. /17

Given what’s gone on the last three months,
no-one should bet against the capacity of this government and this prime minister to fumble this.

And on that cheery note, wish y’all a bon weekend /18ENDS

Appeasement can kiss my arse.

I'll be at the barricades....✊

Unlike, say, the left of the Labour Party which has of course been fighting with all its might to oppose the central plank of Tory policy during this parliament

Aww there there did I hurt your feeling so that you had to resort to whataboutism?

But I did ask ‘Were they whipped?’

Its a very fair point but I think you set yourself up or are so self unaware that you can be called a hypocrite but I'm sure the Tingers will do well as were all very aware the UK, England especially tends to be small c conservatives so Tory lite will probably appeal but of course theyre gonna end up adopting the same 'definition' of 'women' as all of the other parties have done

Not sure what the confusion is with Dominic Grieve. Nick Boles has already been deselected and applied successfully to report directly to Central Office. I think both would have to be adopted by their constituency again for a GE though (?)

I wonder if the Tingers will stand in EP elections rather than face wipe out in a GE or if they will seek to recruit for EP to build a bigger base for GE?

BigChoc - I think that Peter Foster's ever so slightly more positive analysis still underplays May's role as gatekeeper - which we've talked about on here before

I get the impression that she is doubling down on No Deal - it really is a case, in her case, of party before country

The more I think about it, the more I think that No Deal is the most likely outcome I don't think that there is time left for Parliament to wrest sufficient control from her/the Government to prevent/block this

I think something very frightening is going on.
We have the far right calling for votes of no confidence in moderate MPs.
The linked article (I have checked and the source seems to be legit) talks of confederate flags at the protest yesterday, links to the ku klux klan (is it any coincidence that Rees Mogg called the ERG members Grand Wizards ?), US Christian fundamentalists linked to Trump and Steve Bannon funding their campaigns.
It says
As the outpouring of white nationalism, anti-semitism, Islamophobia and racism mingled in a spew of hate in London yesterday, the ascendancy of the far-right into the mainstream is complete

bellacaledonia.org.uk/2019/03/30/flutes-in-whitehall-fascists-on-the-streets/

I saw an English man attending yesterday's march being being interviewed. He was wearing a MAGA hat. It's all so clearly intertwined.

So is that MAGA at our expense Salmon ?
Seems like it.

MAGA Hats, Partially Inverted Corn Syrup, Chlorine Chicken and Sackler Smarties for everyone.

Whoooppeeeee!!!

The government has bought a $15.9m (£12m) seven bedroom luxury New Yorkk* apartment
for a senior British civil servant charged with signing fresh trade deals in a post-Brexit world

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/26/the-16m-new-york-penthouse-fit-for-a-uk-civil-servant