Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

Saw this on FB and thought it sums up the whole clusterfuck - and the fact that May is still delusional perfectly We are so fucked

.....
Can we just play Deal Or No Deal now? 22 boxes, each sealed by an independent adjudicator who is the only one who knows where the unicorn is?

Noel Edmonds guides Theresa May through opening the boxes in turn. He asks her if she has a system (no, she just wants to deliver the unicorn to the people). Turn by turn, she chooses from boxes proffered by such political weasels as Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling... Offers such as staying in the Customs Union and leaving on WTO rules come and go, with accompanying cheers and hissing from an excitable studio audience.

At the end of the first nail-biting round, the Banker (Donald Tusk) rings and offers to revoke Article 50 if she just stops this ridiculous charade. He reminds her that unicorns aren't real.

But on she goes...searching for the unicorn of harmony...

But don't those deals already exist in precedent form?

If we are mirroring something which already exists elsewhere, then what's the negotiation as aren't we agreeing to an existing agreed path?

1tis the UK's right to Revoke is Unilateral. There is no need for the UK to capitulate and play nice if it does this before April 12 - hence the attraction for Leavers.

There are some some very nasty people/organisations who were involved in the leave protest yesterday. They are racist, islamophobic, neo nazi just to mention a few of their undesirable traits.
They have used the press, FB advertising etc to incite and recruit leave voters. I believe most leave voters are totally unaware of this.
They are threatening violence and revolt if they don’t get their own way and our ineffectual government is pandering to them by stating they are ‘the voice of the people’.

What on Earth was Dave thinking?!

I wonder if he's at all contrite, or whether he just doesn't care?

And the question is can we even negotiate better than exists for Norway? Surely they'd have negotiated better if they could?

I cant believe shes going to go for a 4th MV. I am so angry that my children's futures are being endangered by Theresa May's blindness and refusal to rethink.

fluffy Every trade deal is unique to the countries participating and takes several years to negotiate

Even within EFTA, the set of bilateral deals that each member has with the EU are unique
EFTA or CU is like a rough template, that is useless without detailled customisation

Even for an ex-member, I'd expect about 3 years ... and that's if the UK politicians don't bugger about changing their minds, in which case it could be decades, of course

What could be negotiated more quickly is SM+CU - but that genuinely would be BRINO, so I doubt it would be approved by the HoC

Grieve is 62, according to Wiki, so I hope he’d be persuaded into standing again for the TIGs. Perhaps his constituents (Remain 51%) are more reasonable in their views than his local party committee. Perhaps we could email him and say we wouldn’t want Parliament to lose him.

The atmosphere in the country is febrile and scary. A long extension and a rethink (if we could get it) mighty take the heat out of it. I think given a quiet time with no deadlines, people could start thinking about other things in their lives.

Even if yesterday’s crowd had a thousand, it’s still not a million. I’m sure the police and MPs can see the difference between the natures of the two factions. The Brexiters have got into bed with some thugs. Or have the thugs got into bed with them? (Not all Leavers are thugs of course, by any means.)

The difference in the atmosphere between the two demonstrations is astonishing. I watched this to the end (posted on here this week) and it made me just smile.

m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10157002284896113&id=687161112&sfnsn=mo

The petition is only 13,000 off 6 million. Be great if by the Monday votes, it could top that milestone.

www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

The deal that Norway has would not work for us, even apart from the 2 hr goods wait, because our economies are so different
Each deal has to be tailored to handle the various sectors of the economy

The UK economy is about 4 times the size of all the EFTA countries put together, with far more sectors and complexity

What could be negotiated more quickly is SM+CU - but that genuinely would be BRINO, so I doubt it would be approved by the HoC

Which is the deal I'm talking about, hence saying it'll be quicker if we go for that one.

Or I thought that Common Market 2.0 had SM in as well? Otherwise it's just KC's CU, which is what you're talking about, I think?

I think I'm just being driven mad by it all.

You're lucky that you're in Germany and shielded from this clusterfuck, BCF.

Trying to catch up again! So if May is already talking about WA 4 my question is will she still resign if it does pass on the condition that it is attached to something else? Would the DUP back it?

Slight aside - my leaver friend really really likes Barclay. After waxing lyrical about DD she now wonders why we had so many "poor negotiators put in the job by May (who kept interfering anyway) when all the time we had Barclay waiting in the background!". I think he may be one to watch considering Boris is now seen as betraying them by voting for WA. At least for now it looks as though the ERG has split.

For anyone else like me who isn't sure about the content of CM 2.0: www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-47639946

Common Market 2.0 is basically trying to sell you a moderately sensible cake that most leavers will find too dull and wholesome, decorated with a Union Jack and a few small plastic unicorns to get you to excited about it (the supposed limits on free movement - ask the Swiss how that is likely to end).

How does May collapse the government? Would she have to call a no confidence motion in herself and whip for it and hope Labour joined in?

Well this is the billion pound question for me. May HAS a majority to no confidence herself if ALL Tory MPs vote for an election and the DUP support her. Just. But not to meet the terms of the Fixed Term Parliament Act. This isn't necessarily a problem though.

But if the alternative is No Deal, she will have rebels and it isn't clear how this benefits the DUP. So how many on the government side of the house is crucial. And Conservative MPs have all seen whats happening to Grieve and Boles...

Labour WOULD need to support a motion for a GE OR vote in support of May in someway. In reality the choice would be No Deal or a GE.

What would Corbyn do in this situation????

The responsible thing would be to support May. But Labour policy has been for a GE for ages. I can't see Corbyn doing anything but whip for a GE.

This would cause MAJOR problems for Labour MPs and Lords. Do they support Corbyn or do they defy the whip and support the Zombie PM to block no deal?

In the HoC this has the potential to become a 'blairite witchhunt exercise' where loyalty to the leader is tested to its limits. Its perfect for a the precursor to a Corbyn purge of pesky centrists and rebels. Those MPs who support May are voting for a Tory Government. Thats going to go down well.

Also Corbyn probably wouldn't need a huge number of MPs to support him to vote for a GE.

And this is where the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an issue. If May has enough votes combined with Labour to meet it, thats one thing. If she doesn't her alternative is to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. This also might be an alternative way to block an election by Labour - both in the Commons and in the Lords.

Remember the Repeal of the Fixed Term Parliament Act would have to get through the Lords very very quickly and without a fuss. If the alternative is No Deal, this poses an issue for the Lords if the Commons does pass it. They have to decide whether they delay its passage, to keep parliament open until after 12th April. And if they do, they look like they are blocking Brexit too. The Lords has a Labour / Lib Dem majority and many Conservative Lords are also Europhiles. This could put the Lords in the firing line for a 'democratic backlash' from the far right / far left.

The only way out of this would be for Labour to support a GE BUT to pass an amendment to delay the dissolution of parliament until after the 12th April (or a later No Deal date depending on how the EU handles it). This only would set up a No Deal v No Brexit vote if the WA is blocked / not passed. This isn't good for Labour either. It frames them firmly as attempting to block Brexit. Right before a GE. Its therefore not terribly attractive from a Corbynite point of view.

Thus the best Labour Corbyn could hope for might well be No Deal with full on chaos. Not a last minute No Deal v Revoke vote.

The GE option is the nuclear one. Its effect is not pretty looking. Its yet more crisis. And none of this necessarily stops No Deal. Indeed there is much incentive for Corbyn to enable it... and provoke maximum constitutional issues and harm to the general population.

Lets just say, I do not want to see any of this tested as a theory.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Tiggers vote on issues in future, particularly as Heidi Allen is the ‘de facto leader’, and she seems a very compassionate and open-minded person. (Remembering the tv programme she did visiting food banks with Frank Field last year, in which she was brought to tears seeing some folks’ plight.)

Consistently voted against laws to promote equality and human rights
Generally voted against more EU integration
Generally voted against UK membership of the EU
Generally voted against paying higher benefits over longer periods for those unable to work due to illness or disability
Generally voted for a reduction in spending on welfare benefits
Consistently voted against higher taxes on banks

Yup the voice of the people but fuck us disabled scroungers

It's so very hard no to dispair. The cats are oblivious, as always

I'd go for CM2.0 though on the grounds that the limits on free movement are guff anyway and the rest is sensible compared to any other type of Brexit.

It's basically Flexcit repackaged as far as I can see, so I doubt it will fly.

The Tingers are going to be nothing more than Tory lite, new and improved just slightly less nasty

I don't think a MV4 will pass. And the loss might be by even more than 58 votes. ERGer Richard Drax, who voted for the WA yesterday now says he feels ashamed of himself for voting for it. I think a fair number will be angry that they've been seen to cast aside their principles for ultimately nothing and won't be keen to do it again.

Those cats are very fancy and very imperious looking.

Finance, while being a good 'earner' for the UK, only employs a small number of people and the tax take from this is not being used properly to maintain the welfare of others.

It depends what you mean by 'finance'; financial services are a huge employer in the UK. Some 1.13m employees in 2017.

I think WA might pass depending on which attachment it has. I can see DUP potentially supporting it if they think May would No Deal.

I'm wary of thinking we have seen the last of it at any rate.

Have a friend over in about half an hour so unlikely to catch up again until 4am (and then have to type super quietly which i'd like to blame for grammatical errors ). Enjoy the sunshine people!