Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

Re: Soubry and Grieve, I think that the different political backgrounds will be the tiggers strength going forward.

If Brexit has shown us anything it is that our traditional left / right divide doesn't work anymore. The world has moved on and the UK hasn't.

We need to Learn to compromise. I think many pragmatic former Labour and Tory voters see this.

I think voting for the tiggers will be a vote for compromise and a new way of government.

Just mho but I won't be voting for any parties going forward whose goal is to 'win'

and push through their manifesto to the exclusion of all other voters. I will be voting for candidates who wish to work towards a compromise that works for many people.

Ideological I know but I was a guest at a dinner party last year. I am traditionally left wing and was sat with some very right people. Interestingly (and thanks to Brexit) we agree on much and differ on much but we were all pragmatic enough to recognise that we would be happy with certain compromises in return for a government that listened to it's people.

Back to lurking now

{ I don't think the rejection yesterday is us signing our death warrant.}

Unless anyone can suggest exactly HOW the UK can do better by being out of the EU, and relate it to the whole of the UK and not just a 'small'* sector such as finance, then leaving the EU is a gradual slide into obscurity.
For the UK to be 'content' with itself, as many as possible need properly paid jobs that do not require 'hand outs' so that people can survive. While that may have a hint of unicorn about it, the problem is that Westminster of most flavours is not really trying to achieve this.

• Finance, while being a good 'earner' for the UK, only employs a small number of people and the tax take from this is not being used properly to maintain the welfare of others.

Howabout Services are one of the pillars of the SM
It is more that we would need to be in the SM - hence FOM - to retain our current level of access to services

Of course, like with Ukraine, we could get special arrangements for particular cases where our services cannot be supplied from within the EU

BUT that is a huge comedown from our current position of having free access to the full EU services market

However I suspect May will collapse parliament and trigger a GE rather than face that show down. She's hinting at it

Thus detonating no deal in the process. (Although I also see this as a way of enacting the WA without parliamentary approval on the grounds of an emergency

I find it alarming how few people are recognising this as the reality and currently the most likely outcome

Yes.
Clearly being choreographed for those who choose to see it. Victim narrative is working splendidly for the hard of thinking.

Say Common Market 2.0 is the option chosen by parliament next week and the EU agrees with this, how long does the transition period need to be, given that it's not a huge change from where we are now?

If a GE isn't triggered and it's a leadership battle, the PD would be binding until the next GE, am I right? So the negotiations would be bound by the PD?

The problem is if there's a PD agreed but there's a GE, it can be disregarded by whomever gets into government and a much harder Brexit than that decided by the previous session can be negotiated, yes?

So if everyone gets behind an amended PD with the WA, this will cause the leadership change, but not a new parliamentary session. Meaning the PD will remain as decided / amended?

Though the new leader could kick the can and we no deal at the end of the transition period? Or can the EU27 prevent this (did I read on here that the transition period only ends when both sides says it's ended)?

It's all just a mess, isn't it?

The Tiggers aren't a compromise on Brexit though as they wouldn't vote on the Customs Union options last week. I think sadly we are heading for no deal due to a lack of compromise for differing reasons on all sides.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/our-week-everybody-ntg8cjs97?shareToken=d219fbdc8ffe58b251b8a36b2e595d55

Some light relief to block out the screaming.

I am very happy to compromise and think a centre party is the way forward, however there are over 3 million children in poverty in this country, a number that has grown massively under the tory's austerity policies. So I can compromise on a lot of things but keeping millions of children in poverty and also allowing people to starve to death in this country is not one of them. So I truly, truly hope some of the TIGgers who voted in favour of these policies have a change of heart.

That's assuming the PV is agreed though, Mother. If it isn't (or we just fail to legislate for EP elections) we're in trouble as the WA is needed so we don't crash out.

Looks like we could have 4 polls in the next 6 months. Worth getting everyone registered to vote. Especially EU/UK who will be voting in the EU elections. Hopefully,

I had a nightmare earlier this week about turning up at the polling station and not being registered to vote. DH thinks I’ve gone slightly mad.

red I totally agree with you

Without the WA it is almost certainly either Revoke or No Deal

The PD doesn't matter to the EU - and since it is not legally binding, is no guarantee to us either, about the future relationship

To get a long extension for a PV would require legislating for EP elections by 12 April

• there are not the votes in the HoC for this, unless at least Labour is whipped to support it and moderate Tories rebel and join in

So the "almost" relies on Corbyn being somehow convinced away from his Lexit views and into full-hearted support for a PV within the next few days - v v unlikely - plus sufficient Tory moderates trashing their careers - also unlikely.

Indicative votes are only helpful if the WA passes. And the failure of the press and MPs to recognise this is dangerous.

If MPs really don’t realise this is it in any way worth lots of us emailing the sensible ones who might listen and bombarding them with that point?

mother We need the WA whatever the PD

Common Market 2.0 requires the WA - with backstop - because the EU know the ERG could stage a coup and take over the day after CM2.0 was approved by the Uk and EU

The EU stated very clearly that even dropping red lines means only changing the PD, not the WA

I agree with you on Common Market 2.0 Mother.

Given the "short extension" to implement WA has now gone I find it difficult to see any incentive for a Leaver to vote for it. Given DUP clearly signalling would rather Revoke than vote for WA I think that makes it impossible for Labour or Remain Tories to vote for.

However if TM could get it into a Tory manifesto and win a GE on it then it could still pass eventually. I actually think she could win such a GE but fingers crossed not even the Tories are so devoid of principle as to do this. (I say this as a Scottish socialist who has come to the conclusion a lot of English Tory voters will vote for anything the Party tells them to - I may be wrong?).

My understanding is that the customs union is the thing that says what the tariff on your widget should be; the single market is the thing that says how your widget should be made. The benefit of having the same rules over 28 countries being you can then sell your widget trouble free to anybody those 28 countries.

^ Lets be honest most manufacturers who have any export will still follow single market rules. They're not going to have one widget for the UK and a different production line for the EU so being in or out of the single market isn't really about 'taking back control' it's only about FOM

Sorry a couple of questions if anyone can help please?

How does May collapse the government? Would she have to call a no confidence motion in herself and whip for it and hope Labour joined in?

If no government can bind its successor, at what point does anything agreed with the EU become permanent?

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-s-deal-is-dead-long-live-a-second-referendum-zlvcrh8q2

The Parris article is behind the paywall on this link, but via Twitter it's possible to read it.

Just to clarify the DUP want to be treated the same as the rest of the UK except when it comes to women's and gay rights...

fluffy CM2.0 would be a huge change from where we are now

We would need to negotiate one huge treaty or possibly hundredsof bilateral deals with the EU, to cover all we need

The best indication we have is Norway, which is usually the yardstick for a close relationship and has a far less complex economy than the UK

Norway in addition to being in the SM has 50 bilateral treaties with the EU - and still has 2 hour goods queues into the EU

Turkey in the CU has goods queues of 15-30 hours

We need better arrangements for goods than either of these, certainly for NI
and we need to clarify the situation wrt all the agencies like EURATOM that we need, as well as Galileo

{I don't think we would need this WA if we agree to Common Market 2.0.

We wouldn't need it either if we choose to revoke.

I think we would be able to say to the EU we need a further extension to find a new way forward and check via a PV.
We do not need to use this WA at all.
That is just about the only thing (other than no deal) that Parliament is agreed on.}

Sorry but no.
By putting DD and Dom (where's Calais) Raab as negotiators and not producing a coherent and achievable plan together the UK has effectively told the EU to grab the UK by it's 'short and curlies'.
Of course this sits very badly with 'taking back control' but that is what the UK has achieved. Failure to understand this, probably enhanced by the delusion that the EU needs the UK rather than the UK needs the EU.
The UK has also engaged in stamping on the EU's toes or other annoying and foolish action and quite rightly after 3 years of this bullshit the EU is saying enough is enough.
What the EU doesn't need or want is the UK to remain and be a disruptive influence within the EU, so if the UK wishes to remain, the Pro EU stance needs to be very strong and despite the truly heartwarming experience of the march last week and the recognition by EU leaders that that is what they would like to see happening, the UK must come to a demonstrable PRO consensus.

Or, I can copy and paste it for anyone interested. Here goes:

In an attempt to distance myself from our Brexit insanities I am deep in Africa. My hope was to stand a little back, take a calmer and less partisan view.

Some hope. With distance, anger only grows. The further you travel the stupider this Brexit thing looks. People here, whose world of cyclones and cassava-harvests barely touches ours, have heard there’s a bad business going on in Britain. In any satellite’s heat-map of hotspots of human lunacy, the United Kingdom blushes crimson from outer space.

Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, shorn of even a hint of what might come after, failed to clear the Commons yesterday. Thank God. On a cusp between tragedy and pantomime, preposterous figures like Boris Johnson and desiccated zealots like Jacob Rees-Moggwould have strutted the national stage as business leaders wept and what is left of my dear old Conservative Party fell apart.

So where now? Suppose that Mrs May stays in Downing Street. It would be tempting at this point to have another kick at her. But Remainers should take care. Even now, parliamentary Brexiteers among whom I predict a civil war, are confecting their in-house history of the Brexit That Never Was.

Paradise Postponed, by B Johnson and friends, is a story of betrayal: a history of the glorious Brexit that was so nearly within our reach, before a dreadful prime minister became a stooge for dastardly Remainer renegades and their Brussels-fawning running dogs.

Reader, don’t feed that narrative of betrayal by blaming the prime minister, useless as she is. The Archangel Gabriel could not have clawed from the European Union a better withdrawal agreement than May’s civil servants negotiated for her, though the Archangel Gabriel (or the unfeathered Michael Gove) might have been able to sell us that pup. Be thankful that Mrs May’s failure of salesmanship has saved Britain from a bad deal.

And now the real battle begins. It’s a battle Remainers can win, and these next few days may be critical. I see the former Archbishop of Canterbury, Lord Williams of Oystermouth, has been calling for the spirit of compromise. Compromise? Compromise with these tinpot Brexiteers who would destroy Britain’s links with our biggest trading partner? Compromise with the gang who cheated voters with the lie of a Brexit that would offer all the benefits and none of the obligations of EU membership?

Compromise with the bullies who called judges “enemies of the people” and accused Remainers of (in Mrs May’s words) “subverting democracy”? Compromise with the skulduggery of politicians who, offered the half-loaf of relinquishing our seat at the EU’s top table while remaining subject to its rules, would take the half-loaf, and within days —days— start whipping up public anger at the arrangement?

Compromise be damned. We’re looking at an assemblage of ninnies and rascals here, and they’re well on their way to being rumbled. Yet again I remind you of the words (to me) of Margaret Thatcher’s parliamentary private secretary, the late Ian Gow. “In the Lady’s view, once you’ve got the crocodile on to the sandbank you don’t help it back into the deep. You stick the knife in.”

In the “indicative” votes cast by MPs in their debate this week, the numbers speak volumes. RIP Norway-plus. This was never going to survive the kiss of daylight. RIP no-deal too — except by accident.

Through to the second round goes the suggestion we stay inside the customs union after Brexit, which found unexpected favour. Remainers should resist this. It helps the crocodile back into the deep: uber-Brexit lives to fight another day, its likely slogan being “one last heave”.

Referendum-ites did rather well, and it’s likely that lots of Tory MPs in favour of putting any deal to a confirmatory referendum are still hiding in the closet. David Cameron remarked this week that for a Commons majority to be found for any way forward, it must win support from more than one gang. Mrs May’s deal plus a referendum might just do that; more likely, customs union plus a referendum should be able to gather a Commons majority.

If Remainers believe in democracy, they should be content with anything plus a referendum, and keep their powder dry for the new referendum itself. Leaving the EU but staying in a customs union would mean our once-proud empire follows the Ottomans and ends up in the same basket as modern Turkey. It beats me why Britain should forswear the only new freedom that Brexit promised: the freedom to make our own trade deals.

So far, we are winning. And if Lord Williams and the Queen will forgive me, this is no time for splitting the difference. Instead, the day of reckoning is coming: time to make lists. Who were the Brexiteers? Names, please. Names and deeds.

Should we who they have accused of treachery, having had our patriotism impugned and been charged by them with contempt for the people MPs serve, now turn the other cheek, murmur that “the Conservative Party is a broad church” and welcome these wreckers back? I’m not of that persuasion.

If the Conservative Party is to survive (and I’m beginning to wonder how likely that is) it has to turn its face away from the gang who, by the end of this year, will be seen to have brought our country close to ruin. My best guess, however, is that there may not be time to cut them off; that all the arbitrary dates in April, May or June by which the EU will require this, that or the other, all the amendments in the name of “Cooper-Letwin”, “Kyle-Wilson”, etc, will be swept away in a general election that could destroy the Conservative Party, even as Labour lurches reluctantly into a manifesto promise to put a soft Brexit deal to the people.

I have not forgotten Mrs May saying that to vote Conservative in 2017 counted as voting for her Brexit, and will not repeat the mistake. I will never again vote for a party with a no-referendum Brexit in its manifesto. And among the six million who have signed the petition to revoke Article 50, the hundreds of thousands who marched in London last Saturday, and the millions of Remainers who voted Tory last time, there will be a multitude like me.

Scooby May can call a GE if Corbyn agrees - which he would -
because that provides the necessary ⅔ vote in the HoC