Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

The Tingers are going to be nothing more than Tory lite, new and improved just slightly less nasty

Unlike, say, the left of the Labour Party which has of course been fighting with all its might to oppose the central plank of Tory policy during this parliament

Or rather, Labour hasn't been opposing Tory policy at all. Quite the opposite: it has been enabling Tory policy that is already costing people jobs, with fatuous nonsense about a jobs first Brexit.

justanotherposter I completely see what you’re saying about these Tories’ voting records... Shocking.

But I did ask ‘Were they whipped?’

And I wonder if they'd vote in the same way now?

I’ve said before, the whipping system is dreadful and needs to go. For that to happen, we’d need more Independents to neutralise the point of it.

More or less agree with the analysis red but come to the opposite conclusion. If Labour engineers Revoke with the DUP then Corbyn satisfies "Remain and Reform" wing of his Party as well as actual Remainers as well as Tory Remainers (ie the 48%). They then have the rest of the Fixed Term to shine the light on Tory lack of domestic policy.

The Tories have failed to deliver for Leavers or Remainers if they push No Deal or WA. However true Tories don't actually care anyway and the 25% who are Remain would breathe a sigh of relief and win some Labour Leave marginals. Tory Brexiteers have no-one to vote for in protest so they would just vote Tory and console themselves that they were saving the country from "Corbyn".

I assume this is why 170 Tory MPs wrote to No 10 (Tom Newton Dunn story) yesterday to demand No Long Extension. They then get to blame Revoke on Labour to further galvanise p**d off Tory Leavers in a GE - assuming no way to deliver No Deal via Parliamentary majority.

Labour hasn't been opposing Tory policy at all. Quite the opposite: it has been enabling Tory policy that is already costing people jobs, with fatuous nonsense about a jobs first Brexit.

Yup. Labour have been (limply) talking the talk about austerity but they certainly haven't been walking the walk.

It's practical - or indeed fair - to expect all Remainer politicians or voters to support centrist or centre-left policies

The traditional right of centre parties in the EU, the EPP grouping, are very pro EU and generally hold to a basic "social contract" wrt looking after the disabled and the less well off

So they are more like the One Nation Tories, not the nasty shower that have taken over most of the current Tory party.

However, many Westministenders would not wish to vote for the EPP in most countries, because of some of their other policies
e.g. the German CDU is socially conservative on issues like abortion and equal marriage

Oops
It's Is it practical

Sorry, RTB, your last post has left me really confused! Isn’t it possible that the E.U. would grant another extension if a GE is called? So nobody would need to be seen to be delaying Brexit until after 12 April to prevent no deal?

I just seem to remember GE and PV being described as the two reasons that they might give an extension. Or has the situation now moved past that?

View in German is that No Deal is the most likely option, but that Germany is as ready for that as it can be
Analysts appear resigned to No Deal

View seems shared in other E27 countries:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/29/donald-tusk-calls-emergency-eu-summit-over-brexit

mother ostensibly we need the WA because the EU won't discuss the future trading arrangements until the withdrawal terms have been agreed. However, I think they may be talking double speak on this depending on the audience and a "Long Extension to negotiate Common Market 2.0" could get round the embargo by incorporating terms of withdrawal as preconditions.

Queen The EU would almost certainly grant an extension for PV - IFF we legislate for EP elections by 12 April

However, the situation has moved on since the EU's last statement, months ago, that they would also extend for a GE

Their criteria to extend is that there is some prospect of a benefit for the EU
A likely Tory overall majority doesn't seem helpful
Or even a govt led by Corbyn, who seems very dim, as well as being a Lexiter

Howabout That seems another version of "the EU will blink at the last moment"

A major mistake by UK Brexiters and the media from even before the referendum to not is that they don't believe EU statements.

However, to date the EU has held to what it says

it's a BIG risk, with effectively 10 days left (to the decisive EU Council meeting) to assume the EU will blink

Queen I agree with you on extension for a GE (with WA as central plank). That is why I think that is what TM is seeking to engineer and what EU will enable as WA is now the best deal for them (the terms are much better for them than us Remaining) - they don't want No Deal and they don't want Revoke of the malcontents.

RTB thank you for the long analysis - I would not have been able to articulate so clearly, but suspected something along those lines.

I wasn't aware that the indicative votes were a solution only to the PD - I believe them to be stand alone solutions to the mess we are in

I thought the same mother. I thought Tusk had said withdrawal agreement by the end of this week or a viable alternative proposal that would then necessitate a long extension. I assumed the indicative votes were about those alternatives.

We'd have a lot more chance if the UK govt hadn't destroyed any trust the E27 might have
and the HoC leaving it until now to get serious is outrageous

The E27 leaders may refuse to be bounced into such late compromises / risks with such an untrustworthy country

Only 1 of the 27 needs to be concerned enough to veto

Or just one of the countries that are not much affected by Brexit may just decide they'd rather have No Deal

Bigchoc my analysis is NOT the EU blinking it IS the EU doubling down and banking its advantage - they have already negotiated Heads they Win, Tails we Lose unless we Revoke or No Deal.

Macron even gets to pretend he is threatening to kick us out to play to his supporters and his detractors all at the same time and then play the magnanimous compromise at the last moment.

{“A ‘no-deal’ scenario on 12 April is now a likely scenario. The EU has been preparing for this since December 2017 and is now fully prepared for a ‘no-deal’ scenario at midnight on 12 April. The EU will remain united.
“The benefits of the withdrawal agreement, including a transition period, will in no circumstances be replicated in a ‘no-deal’ scenario. Sectoral mini-deals are not an option.”}

Taken from the Guardian article linked by BCF.

I wonder if the UK government in it's entirety would be good enough to actually read, understand and act on the words spoken by the EU.
This has gone so far beyond being a sick joke.

All the things in the WA would have to be copied in to any new deal before Brexit
Especially the backstop - but there is a great deal more in there than the backstop

The EU would be very naive to assume that the ERG can't take over in transition and bin CM2.0

Theoretically, we could have a cosmetic abandoning of the WA, but actually the EU making everything it contains as prerequisistes.

However, it all comes down to whether they are prepared to wait years for a trade deal to have everything in the WA agreed

The view here is that after No Deal, a desperate UK would be forced to sign up to everything in the WA as a prerequisite to starting negotiations for any deals

So the EU would get the contents of the WA sooner after No Deal, than waiting several years to negotiate CM2.0 - if the ERG don't throw it out.

This is why the view here (Germany) is to expect No Deal

I wonder if the UK government in it's entirety would be good enough to actually read, understand and act on the words spoken by the EU.

Ironically Leavers and Brexiteers politicians and people and the EU are now all united.

They all want rid of us. I don't blame them either.

{Whatever way I look at it the WA is dead. It has been the most defeated piece of legislation they've tried to pass}

Read the EU's lips, the WA is all the UK is going to get. If the UK buggered this up by it's own internal politics then that is not the EU's problem. The UK (if it wants to negotiate other than revoke) has to make the WA 'undead'.

{Macron is always banging on about how he will say non - but he is trying to deflect attention from his own domestic issues.}

France is one of the few countries with the strength behind it to be able to say this.
Germany might also be justified in raising objections but it knows that the UK would start crying that 'it' the Germans being nasty again' with the well balanced view that the UK has (not).
Spain might also be in a position to put an issuer forward but would probably be less inclined than France as it does need the UK a bit more.
For the UK to eat, much of it transits or originates France.

If the HoC were functional and trustworthy, there could even have been a way to avoid actually holding EP elections:
the HoC could delegate MPs - so elected 2017 - to jointly become MEPs

There is a precedent in accession of at least one E27 country

However, imo the E27 would still want the HoC to vote for this by 12 April,
due to trust issues / risk of new UK PM / govt

It depends how desperate the E27 are to avoid No Deal vs how desperate to have closure on Brexit

I keep hearing again the old quote from Merkel about Brexit:

"Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende."
(“Better a horrible ending, than horror without end“)

The view here is that after No Deal, a desperate UK would be forced to sign up to everything in the WA as a prerequisite to starting negotiations for any deals

That is an interesting PoV but the risk is that No Deal is not actually bad enough to facilitate it (when the French are all on strike the trade disruption is virtually the same) or more likely that UK hits Revoke before April 12.

leave.eu are saying they are behind grieves deselection

leave.eu/deselect-your-remainer-tory-mp/