Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

{ I understood that the WA is now dead, thanks to Erskine May. }

Well the WA is pretty much the only 'soft' option so someone needs to compromise. The UK has 'gamed' itself into signing it's own death warrant.

{DUP is pragmatic in nature and only ever had one red line: treating NI the same as the rest of the UK.}

As long as it is treated specially, over Scotland and Wales.

Article on the reality of no deal for the Irish border www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0330/1039471-brexit-no-deal-tony-connelly/

How the DUP have been backing no deal for so long has been baffling to me, it's a long article but scroll down to the end to see the reality for farmers in NI. The backstop is crucial for them.

In Ireland I feel we are increasingly assuming it will be a No Deal, the political situation in Westminster looks so out of control I can't see how any realistic alternative can be cobbled together in two weeks. It makes me so angry that we will be the collateral damage for the abject failure of the UK government. We have just pulled ourselves out of recession and now God knows what lies ahead.

In what universe is a principled decent MP like Dominic Grieve booted out while Johnson, Raab and Gove are touted as contenders for leader. God help us.**

Absolutely. This country is just insane at the moment. Thank fuck for Ken Clarke and Grieve

And l say that as a hard core labour voter

But surely if the indicative votes go for WA+CU+PV or Common Market 2.0 then the WA can come back to facilitate that. It would be a substantive change so Bercow would allow. I don't think the rejection yesterday is us signing our death warrant. The speaker's aim is to let parliament have its say.

Re posting these from that thread advertising the fascist rally.

@joannaccherry
"Very relieved to be safely back to my base in London. Was abused by trailing ends of the #LeaveMeansLeave protest as I walked home. Called a traitor. Told to go back to my own country. Such a contrast from #PeoplesVoteMarch last weekend #BrexitChaos"

Lisa Nandy MP (also a mother of very small children like Jo Cox), wrote this yesterday:

"Today outside Parliament I and others were accosted by people shouting f traitor as we tried to get in to vote. Our staff were advised to leave the building for their own safety. There were armed police everywhere. This is not normal"

This is shocking footage of fascists mobbing Channel 4 news reporters.
twitter.com/georginafstubbs/status/1111715367615901701

We pro EU liberals have struck lucky with several things in this battle. Thus far it's included the utter professionalism and integrity of the police, they helped us dodge a bullet or two yesterday.

Grieve knew this was on the cards. I suspect he will retire. Our loss.

Change UK ( or CUKs as Alex Androu was giggling about on yesterday's Remainiacs podcast ) will do nicely in the forthcoming EU elections.

Looks like we could have 4 polls in the next 6 months. Worth getting everyone registered to vote. Especially EU/UK who will be voting in the EU elections. Hopefully,

Horehound That's a miscalculation that the ERG keep making re negotiations
We can NOT rely on the EU extending just because they want UK financial contributions

The 8 billion quid UK net contribution is reallly not essential to an E27 with GDP about $16 trillion that is 19% of global economy

As always, I apologise for my lack of knowledge, but can someone please explain about Grieve? I heard shouts from the match yesterday for him to be out but don't know why. Think I've only been on these threads since January so have missed most of what's gone on

Disappointed that Soubry agrees with austerity.

Link fail:

@georginafstubbs
Treating the press like this has never and will never be ok. Ever. I’ve seen @Channel4News and @CNN on the receiving end today.

twitter.com/georginafstubbs/status/1111715367615901701

State broadcaster optimistically suggesting there were 'thousands' at the march yesterday here. Surely that's about 700 people?

Services are not handled much, if at all, in any trade agreement in the world

Trying to break into the services market in India or China is a nightmare
They just want to take the knowledge and do it themselves, rather than be dependent on foreign countries

The US is a big problem too, because trade agreements only deal with the federal level
At the state level, there are so many rules to exclude foreign goods & services that it is again anightmare trying to get a contract there

The EU Single Market does actually include services - so it is the best deal for services we can find anywhere - but even in the EU it needs developing

Thank goodness in Scotland we have the option of voting SNP. I didn't vote in favour of independence and don't vote for them for the Scottish parliament, won't get into that here, but I'll happily vote for a SNP MP in Westminster, and did so in 2017. I think if they and the DUP get behind a customs union, that'll swing it. I'd still like to see it put to a PV against remain (revoke) but am increasingly doubtful.

Frictionless trade in goods is only possible with the Single Market, plus at least a Customs Deal, preferably the full CU.

This is why the backstop requires the SM for NI

As always, I apologise for my lack of knowledge, but can someone please explain about Grieve? I heard shouts from the match yesterday for him to be out but don't know why. Think I've only been on these threads since January so have missed most of what's gone on.

Grieve and Soubry have effectively been the leaders of the Tory remain faction from the beginning. Both one nation tories and lawyers. Grieve was attorney general, he was sacked by Cameron for opposing moves to leave the ECHR (which also stumbled on the Irish issue and has been quietly shoved under a carpet).

Thank you

Grieve, Soubry and other remainer Tories / former Tories are conservatives, not liberals or social democrats

Just because they are Remainers does not mean they will abandon their other beliefs, nor that they should

Revoke based only on the centre and moderate left would not have enough support in the HoC, let alone in the country.
About 30% of Tory voters are Remainers - they tend to be the ones who consider business and the economy, rather than just flag-waving

Bercow
Grieve was a loyal quiet ex AG(?) lawyer tory for Beaconsfield. He has become part of the opposition to Brexit. The tories, like labour, are undergoing a bout of 'entryism' in which extremists join local parties and seek to choose more extreme candidates. This has now happened in Grieve's constituency and he has therefore been de selected for the next election.

Lonely
It's not the numbers, it's their entitled incitement and violence.
It's also the unqualified promotion of these fascists by organisations like the BBC, FB and other cough social media platforms for middle england.

Remember Jo Cox.

Is May really going for a 4th MV? How?

If the WA is now dead, then so is any form of soft Brexit.

If we want to leave the EU in any way other than no deal the WA is necessary. It is the divorce.

The WA can be retabled to parliament with an alternative PD attached to it in theory.

The trouble is the ERG won't vote for it if its softer and Labour won't vote for it because the PD is not legally binding and a future PM can renege on it.

But ultimately the EU only care that the WA is passed. They don't care about the PD particularly.

If you accept that the WA is dead you are saying that the only options left are no deal and revoke.

And with the way things are tilted and the pressure internally with the Conservative Party that is more or less accepting and enabling No Deal.

No deal might be technically illegal but its still also the default and entrenchment over the WA by Remainers leaves them vulnerable to being blamed for the excesses that no deal will entail because it only means accidental Brexit is effectively May's only option.

Getting a parliamentary majority for European Parliament elections relies too heavily on Labour votes. A majority of Tories will not vote for it under any circumstances as they see it as destruction of the party. Its not an option. This rules out a PV. It will not happen.

A last minute 12th April No Deal v Revoke last minute parliamentary vote scenario is something that's a possibility.

However I suspect May will collapse parliament and trigger a GE rather than face that show down. She's hinting at it.

Thus detonating no deal in the process. (Although I also see this as a way of enacting the WA without parliamentary approval on the grounds of an emergency).

I find it alarming how few people are recognising this as the reality and currently the most likely outcome.

I don't know how to spell this out. I've said it repeatedly. May is the gatekeeper and what May decides, decides Brexit.

Parliament is very limited in how it can stop May if she flips to No Deal. It ultimately does not have the power to stop no deal if it does not back the WA.

Honestly unless you have a last minute gun at the head MV4 where it is clear its the WA or No Deal, then that's it. And I fear attempts to constrict this via amendments or force a No Deal v Revoke vote if MV4 fails only result in a GE and No Deal anyway, to avoid that situation ever occurring.

If May does not want to revoke and if May can not pass the WA the ONLY way this is going is No Deal. Not a PV. Not a magic solution that comes out of indicative votes.

Indicative votes are only helpful if the WA passes. And the failure of the press and MPs to recognise this is dangerous.

We are sleepwalking into No Deal.

LonelyAndTiredAndLow - if yesterday's demonstration had been outside the state broadcaster's Scotland's offices, protesting about bias during the Indyref, they would've said it was just 300. I'll give it the benefit of the doubt and say it looks about double the size of that particular protest, triple at most - so that makes 600 or 900

That footage is really sad @woman19 I think I'm more sad about this whole shambles than angry right now (although I flip flop between the two more than JRM at a MV does) No matter what happens now, the country is hideously divided. And there's no solution in sight.

I don't believe for one minute that all leavers are racists but this process has given a voice to those racists and legitimised their behaviour. Although, perhaps it was more that I lived in a cosy little echo chamber before and wasn't aware of much outside of it!

What are the chances of MV4 (or MV if the last one was MV2.5) being brought back? Surely she can't keep flogging the same, long since dead, horse?!

Barnier’s comment that a CU agreement could be done within 48 hours is very significant

That could even mean that a long extension - and EP elections - is not needed

If the EU drafting team could whip up the legal PD text in time for both sides to approve Brexit on 31 June - they may already have a draft in the EU Commission cellar - then the CU plan could gain support from a lot more MPs

Misti I was delivering professional services as a UK National working for a UK company in an EU country pre - Maastricht. I am a bit out the loop but not convinced you need FoM. In fact since atm Poland imports Ukrainians to replace all the Polish workers in the UK I think you don't.

The issues are more about mutual recognition of qualifications and ability of Unions to operate Closed Shops etc.

Here's that charming family from the event.
Look like typical BBC/DM/MN demographic
twitter.com/IciLondres/status/1111669862617808896