Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

another few days of this chaos focusing enough MP’s on feeling they need to do something to get some respite from current insanity.

The problem is that "something" may not be enough given that there is no evidence that MPs as a group understand that voting against no deal is not the same thing as doing something to prevent it.

I am extremely gloomy about the future of the U.K. after last night. I think that Parliament is not capable of resolving this, because the average IQ and average level of curiosity about complex issues in the House is not really any different to that in the country as a whole (so they are no more equipped to answer difficult questions requiring a grasp of detail than the nation was at the time of the referendum). That means that the thugs outside Downing Street last night have effectively won.

I think a WA with a CU would get more ERG votes against compared with yesterday. DUP might not go for it (border in Irish Sea still required).

I think I've been broken down so much for the last three years that I'll grudgingly be grateful for any bloody thing that isn't No Deal.Any second, third or fourth best will do. But how absurd is that.

On a purely logical basis it's cowardly that Revoke hasn't attracted more MPs support.

All of the indicative vote solutions or the MV are dependent on persuading, bribing, threatening scrabbling around to get MPs to vote for it.

It's absurd to make such s huge decision where MPs views and game playing can flip flop within a fortnight.

If there was an outstandingly beneficial alternative to EU participation indicating boom, investment and prosperity then it should be a clear comfortable consistent long term win. Then we'd all have faith that it's the correct thing.

Any solution that needs all this scrabbling around for a handful of votes here and there and with views changing from week to week just can't be right.

Maybe there should be a revoke~for~now option.

Do any Leavers ever say Look anything that is this fraught with shifting votes and narrow margins means it's not the right time to destroy the status quo?

DM said that Hungarian news suggested the EU is going to have crisis meeting after crisis meeting to prepare for / mitigate the effects of no-deal.

There is plainly a disconnect between EU journos and politicians who seem to think that no deal is now the single likeliest outcome and U.K. journos (even very switched on ones like Peter Foster) and politicians who still think it's unlikely.

Very poor assessment of risk on the U.K. side IMO.

I’m absolutely agree with you Lonelyplanetmum and I will never forgive TM for handling it in the way she has so this is where we have ended up. I would like Revoke for now but don’t think they will. As DH has jus said, they are scared of Leavers but they aren’t of us.

misti I completely agree with you on Soubry. I wish we had more politicians like her. Those who people may not agree with politically but are willing to stand up for what they think is right even if it's against their own party lines. But this is probably why I'd never make a good party MP candidate

Why would you need a border in the Irish Sea with a CU? RoI aren't in Schengen so a CU will mean no border, wouldn't it? I'm not an expert but wasn't that what the ERG were moaning about? With the original CU?

Misgivings about others is prob why Heidi Allen is the interim leader of TIG. Even my Corbynista colleague said she was in the wrong party.
I think political allegiance and beliefs are based on instinct and gut feeling more than rationality, like religion. Once you have a position, you can deploy reason to support that position. Some people have better knowledge and understanding and are better at reasoning than others. The longer you hold certain beliefs, the more entrenched they become...so a belief that austerity, though it impacts adversely on people, is beneficial to all in the long run and therefore deserves continuing support. Similarly some people burn for all eternity in Hell, which is not nice for them, but if that makes others more inclined to believe in God it’s worth it.

No, Noodlerose, you need a lot of alignment on single market rules as well - if you've got divergence in product standards, you have products that need checking.

Why would you need a border in the Irish Sea with a CU?

Google the Turkish border. Being inside a CU but outside the SM is basically Turkey, which is apt because our democracy is heading that way too.

If the UK is inside a CU but outside the SM you will need checks on the compliance of goods with single market rules. These will most likely happen in the Irish Sea (some plant and animal health checks already do - the DUP conveniently ignore this).

Der Spiegel seems to think that a long extension is currently most likely, but that there's a significant risk of no deal, mainly due to issues re the UK taking part in EP elections.

In a way I feel the same as lonelyplanetmum: 'I think I've been broken down so much for the last three years that I'll grudgingly be grateful for any bloody thing that isn't No Deal'. And I won't even be directly affected, beyond possible minor travel inconveniences on UK holidays.
I've been in Germany almost two decades. My relationship with my British identity has changed beyond all recognition in that time, mostly in the last three years.

My understanding is that the customs union is the thing that says what the tariff on your widget should be; the single market is the thing that says how your widget should be made. The benefit of having the same rules over 28 countries being you can then sell your widget trouble free to anybody those 28 countries.

Thanks Red.

Brilliant summary, thanks Red.

While the mass of people marching and signing petitions are dangerous in the sense that we would willingly cause physical harm to our MPs, we are the ones who are politically engaged. As such, we're the ones who'll vote in GEs etc for years to come and have the power to vote against the ones we feel did an appalling job during this Brexit crisis. They should be worried about that as well.

The May council elections will be very interesting indeed after all of this.

I agree with the PP who said that this parliament simply isn't capable of resolving this Brexit issue; they're far too entrenched in party politics to act in the best interest of the country. I hope the electorate works this out and many of them lose their seats because of it.

noodle the Customs Union doesn't solve the Backstop issue because of regulatory divergence potential.

Regulatory alignment means staying in the Single Market and since most of comings and goings are agriculture that means staying in CAP and then given the Irish Sea also CFP. That lot is way way more than even Norway +, but I think what the WA was always intended to back into this "solution" via the Backstop. It is Leaving to become the Ultimate Rule Taker and completely unsustainable but yet there was no exit clause in the WA.

On Revoke vs No Deal the DUP are acting as outriders for Ergers in the Tories and Labour and Tory Remainers. If they sell the message that Revoke for now is better than WA / No Deal / 2nd Ref then the job is done. It has the virtue of being completely up to the UK Parliament to decide and so Not ceding control to the EU.

Revoke also resets and gives Leavers and Remainers a chance to frame their Plan workably.

Oh right thanks. I didn't realise that. I suppose all of our stuff is compliant at the moment and a CU will mean we can't pander to make trade deals with countries with poorer standards that can't make deals with the EU.

So what is it that allows services to be supplied in the same way that it is now? Is that the SM element or something else?

Is this why parliament requires the CU / SM training on Monday, so they know what our economy specifically needs in order to keep going without issues?

Thanks for the thread (threads)

I saw Rory Stewart on Newsnight last night. He looked exhausted and deflated. Said the U.K. would now need to hold EU elections.

I’m still really scared of a no deal but feeling hopeful.

Noodle the EU will still insist on checks for compliance. There will be no single marker benefits without being in the single market.

You can have no CU and be in the SM (this is Norway - it has a physical border)

You can have a CU but be outside the SM (this is Turkey - it has a physical border)

Or you can be inside both the CU and the SM, and have no border.

Only talking about goods borders here. This is nothing to do with people crossing borders: the U.K. is outside Schengen so it currently has a hard border for the movement of people, except in Ireland.

The Express have fucked up date in a section of their article :

‘The vote was held during an emergency Commons sitting triggered by the Government to try to meet an EU deadline that could have fixed the UK’s departure from the EU to March 22.’

Thanks red for the summary.

I finding the whole thing frustrating at the moment as I'm sure more MPs support a pv or revoke than voted for them on Wednesday (given how many were remain in 2016). They are still more concerned with keeping their jobs than doing what they ultimately think is best.

If the Maybot hadn't announced she would step down I do wonder if the best thing would have been for her WA to pass (better than no deal at least). However without her in place (as much as I dislike her at the moment) I do worry about the next stage being led by a hard brexiteer who will drive us off the cliff anyway. So I'm glad it failed just to give a tiny bit more breathing room.

Oh and how does Mark Francois have a 23k majority? Is he a good local MP despite being a complete tool?

So what is it that allows services to be supplied in the same way that it is now? Is that the SM element or something else?

Don't know enough to really answer this properly, but my understanding is that there isn't really a proper single market for services. For things to remain as they are now I think the U.K. would have to remain in the EU. The EMA and the banking authority both moved before we knew the outcome of Brexit (ie they would have moved even if the U.K. remained in the EEA).

A lot of services are linked to the provision of goods, so freedom of movement is the essential requirement, otherwise the suppliers of goods cannot also supply workers to install, maintain and monitor those goods.

Bit of a moot point whether Single Market for Services actually really exists atm, I would argue it is more like mutual recognition / equivalence.

Ah, OK. Thank you both.

Bit of a moot point whether Single Market for Services actually really exists atm, I would argue it is more like mutual recognition / equivalence.

Yes this is my understanding too. But a lot of services can only be delivered in the EU if there is freedom of movement and this implies at least partial SM membership (partial = Switzerland). A UK supplier of equipment needs to be able to send its technicians for example - they would require visas if we leave the single market, because they would not have the right to work in the EU. That would be a significant barrier to trade.