Westminstenders: Arse about Face

[RedToothBrush]

Everything about Brexit seems to have been done wrongly.

Setting red lines to rule out a compromise

The attempt to use executive power to trigger A50, that resulted in a court case

Triggering A50 before knowing what the UK wanted

Agreeing to the backstop before any Tory MP understood the GFA

Appointing a Brexit minister before checking he understood where Dover was.

May going on about NI and pissing off the DUP before they were just about to climb down.

Having a Meaningless Vote repeatedly with a gun to head.

Contempt of Parliament and just general fucking up.

Tonight, 3 days before we were due to leave the HoC finally sat down to decide what Brexit outcomes they thought would be a good idea - more than 2years after that should have happened.

And we now we are told the meaningful vote might be may even more meaningless by being wrapped up in the illusive Withdrawal Agreement Implimentation Bill.

Farce doesn't even cover it.

Anyway Indicative Vote results incoming in approx 15 mins.

@LouiseCollins28 ???

Woman19 Thank you very much indeed!

Just emailed Richard Ashworth & Donald, thanks for the links.
My MP yes 1,2,3,abstained on 4, yes for 5 & No for 6,7,8 so pretty good.

Thanks LeClerc that’s really helpful

Queenofthorns Any change to the future relationship, such as the CU, would be in the PD

The EU have repeatedly said the WA would not be changed even if we drop red lines
(except probably for minor WA text updates to match new PD references)

The PD would have considerable political weight, but it is not legally binding,
because the HoC can't order that some years in the future both the UK and the EU have to agree a trade deal on those lines

So a future post-Brexit PM could drop the CU completely once in transition
or indeed could switch to the much softer SM+Customs arrangement if FOM becomes acceptable

I see "May vows to quit if deal passed" is slipping down the "news"

How long before it's forgotten completely ?

Had a lovely e mail reply from Richard ashworth mep.

I urge the rest of you to e mail x

Argh, emboldening fail there! Thank you again Woman19 (in case you didn't see it!).

Shocking to learn from Langrish's post that some people think we are Brexiting tomorrow, or even that we did so the day after the 2016 referendum.

They probably voted in the ref, too.

Maybe not so surprising then how persistently ignorant some MPs are

Sam Coates Timess@SamCoatesTimes*

Even now I despair that MPs intimately involved in the brexit process get basic details about the various options wrong

Honestly.

A Parliament of 🤦🏻‍♀️

Could I ask those who are against the WA why that is?

Because it doesn't solve much at all. It does address 3 crucial points that are the bare minimum : the Irish backstop (To avoid a hard border), the rights of citizens (UK in EU and EU in UK) and the budget contributions for the transition period. The issue really is rather with what it does not do: the trade relationship with the EU is still completely open. We could get a Boris as PM and a very hard brexit after 2 years. Should there somehow be a ref in Ireland and a unification, there'd be nothing in the way of complete deregulation (no workers or consumer rights etc.)
The WA only guarantees we leave. Then it's probably 20 years of fence sitting. Purgatory.

chev you got a link for finding/contacting MEPs - will do it over wkend when I'm not so brain dead

Raab should have stayed silent, rather than confirm his ignorance & arrogance yet again:

Alberto Nardelli@AlbertoNardelli

I sent this tweet to an EU source.
Their response: “oh for fuck sake”
.....
norman smith@BBCNormanS

Dominic Raab breaks his silence - Govt shd go back to EU to seek legally binding changes to the backstop < 🤦🏻‍♀️🤦🏻‍♀️🤦🏻‍♀️ >
If not prepare for No Deal.

Thanks Songs could I ask do you prefer no deal to that purgatory?

I seem to have settled on no deal as really very bad and the WA as a hope against this. I do think we’ll crash out as there won’t be consensus, so it helps to hear different views.

I’d love revoke but I think it’s very unlikely and a PV could just deliver leave again.

Shocking to learn from Langrish's post that some people think we are Brexiting tomorrow, or even that we did so the day after the 2016 referendum.

No disrespect, but one of the themes of Brexit has been how woefully under-informed some people choose to be. No one should be surprised at that level of ignorance. Saddened, yes. Angry, undoubtedly. But surprised ?

That's why I'm saying that all options, with the exception of passing the WA before the 12 April or No Deal will. Require. Participation. In. The. EP. Elections.

MPs in particular seem to be in denial sticking their head in the sand about this

{Then it's probably 20 years of fence sitting. Purgatory}

There is an upside in that while the UK government are fannying around, food, meds and many other aspects of life can continue although they will be impacted but not immediately buggered.

Songsof experience No PD can be legally binding, because the HoC cannot legislate to order a future PM & future Parliament to do something.
They can't vote to order the EU to do anything.

So only Revoke gives certainty of what is ahead

And just when I’m beginning (pretending) to convince myself that it really can’t - can it? -get much worse, we must be close to rick bottom now, I hear on the radio that bookies are now giving Andrea Leadsom 16:1

Oh ye gods.

Oh learned ones with access to social and other media, what news of 'operation yellow tit' and any comments about BMW and others commencing their shutdown next week?

(Rock bottom. No idea who Rick Bottom is)

a PV could just deliver leave again

If a PV delivered leave based on an actual deal then that is fair enough. If the electorate know the pros and cons of the deal and decide it is worth it then it should be implemented. But a referendum result based on unicorn promises used as evidence for "the will of the people" for any particular deal is simply dishonest.

So, what do we think will be voted on Monday? I'm going to take a stab and guess that any of the options that did not have a clear majority against will be passed forward for a preferential vote where MPs are asked to rank them. So that would leave us with:

customs union - 272 against
common market 2.0 - 283 against
revoke - 293 against
PV - 295 against
Labour's plan - 307 against

Labour's plan should also be dropped, as with cabinet abstensions taken into account, it would also have a clear majority against.

With reference to OpenEurope (openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/how-negotiable-are-the-pathways-outlined-by-the-options-for-indicative-votes/), are any of these unicorns or actually implementable?

customs union - PD needs to be re-opened and then WA+PD and WAIB passed, good chance EU happy with this
common market 2.0 - not the same as staying in the EU CU, similar requirements to customs union option, but less likely EU happy with it, and EFTA members states ambivalent
revoke - no negotiation needed, requires EP election set up in place by 12 April
PV - EU ok with long extension, requires EP election set up in place by 12 April

prettybird is right, and I missed that out of my customs union and common market 2.0 list above - both of these will take long enough that an A50 extension and EP elections are required.

Pretty With a PV, we'd have to hold EP elections, but presumably our MEPs would have a "shelf life" to end immediately if the result is Leave

I hope that "shelf life" legislation has happened or is possible -anyone know ? -
because the possibility of Farage & the Tory batshitters staying in the EP 4 years after Brexit, free to wreck and blackmail the EP,
is horrific ... and might cause an E27 leader to veto the extension

True Cordelia good point. Coming round to the idea. Cummings and his emotive lines will have to let facts be heard.