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Brexit

Westminstenders: Flextension

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/03/2019 22:37

Just wrote an intro and wiped it. So this is as quick as I can sum up.

EU response is extension to 22nd May if May passes her deal by 29th March

Or an unconditional extension to 12 April which could be extended with a plan and understanding to take part in EU elections.

This isn't what may wanted. It gives her less time and leverage

It opens up the possibility of her being ousted as PM in the next couple of days. Graham Brady asked her to quit on Monday. Remain Cabinet ministers are threatening to quit if May whips a vote to support no deal.

The talk is May has indeed flipped to supporting no deal with many think she's pretty much gone full on Colonel Kurtz.

The EU are in effect supporting parliamentary sovereignty and are being incredibly reasonable.

May now has to decide whether to accept.

The whole situation looks explosive and likely that one half of the cabinet or the other are on the brink of walking. And May's power is so shattered.

However she remains the gatekeeper and as it stands if she's hell bent on no deal, it will be extremely difficult for Parliament to prevent that.

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7Days · 23/03/2019 00:44

In years to come, you should write a book, RTB.

CordeliaEarhart · 23/03/2019 00:55

I'm a teacher so I really should be proud of attempting to learn new stuff, but that often evades me. Thanks to BCF, Bercowsbigtie and RTB (and probably others I've neglected to mention) for your patience. LarkDescending, Minister of the Crown?! Does that mean anyone with the title "minister of..."?

I'm going to bed before my head explodes, but thanks again to all the folks who take the time and trouble to contribute to these threads. I've learned so much and am genuinely grateful to those who post, especially when you reference your resources - I'm tempted to use you all as "how to properly cite your sources" for my 6th form but would probably be sacked for trying to politically influence my students. Now I need to go sleep before my early morning coach ride to London.

RedToothBrush · 23/03/2019 01:16

Cordelia, there are often questions asked here I don't know the answer to. So I try and find out the answer myself and then stitch it together with what I know to try and explain.

Questions are therefore something I value as they help me.

There is no patience here. Just a passion to get people to understand the importance of some of this or to help everyone (including myself) understand wtf is going on as its all our futures and its so complex and really quite closed off at times to anyone who doesn't know a huge amount about politics.

That's fundamentally wrong

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StripeyChina · 23/03/2019 01:17

Just to say HURRAH for everyone marching tomorrow.

I have finally decided that my double crutches, dd's SaLT appt, a UTI and £95 I don't have on train tickets would be crazy.

But when exH was smirking at me about 'being all worked up about Brexit ... why don't you buy some extra loo rolls and calm down' I was tempted to -I don't know - I just felt SO UPSET I can't get there.

will someone give their red toothbrush a swish and flick for me and my kids please?

BoreOfWhabylon · 23/03/2019 01:25

Safe journeys and good luck to all going on The March tomorrow. I wish I could be with you.

I'll be watching the TV and looking out for the red toothbrushes.

TheMostBoringPersonEver · 23/03/2019 02:04

So have been googling. For those who were lost about the plane like I was and didn't follow the Cambridge analytica thing - I was only vaguely aware of it, I knew Russia had been linked to Brexit but not the who is who, as it were...

Farage was friends with a guy called Bannon. (since 2011)
Bannon and a rich guy called Mercer (who is heavily invested in the Trump campaign) set up Cambridge Analytica in 2013. CA also has a US office (2015) and a Canadian office. They had loads of data from FB which they were using to target ads toward certain demographics.

They also set up the London Breitbart (a right-wing news outlet)
Bannon recruited a guy called Kassam for Brietbart. Kassam subsequently ran for the leadership of UKIP when Farage resigned.

Meuller is a Special Council (?) investigating the links between Russia and Trump.
Meuller is currently investigating Roger stone and it has been revealed that Bannon is the ‘high ranking Trump campaign official’ referred to in the documents.
Bannon was in charge of the trump campaign. He had taken over in August 2016 from Paul Manafort – now jailed under a number of federal charges connected to his lobbying operations for Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs.

Meanwhile, back in the UK...
Farage set up Leave.EU with a guy called Aaron Banks running it.
Whistleblower Cambridge Analytica executive, Brittany Kaiser has said that Brexit was apparently the test run for Trumps campaign.
Accordingto Farage, Bannon played a crucial role in Britain’s Brexit vote.
Banks suggested enlisting Cambridge Analytica’s help in reaching out to Americans “with family ties to the UK.” Evidently, by targeting Americans with British relatives, the hope was that they could avoid campaign-finance-law violations. (Uk and US law both forbid financial contributions from outside sources)

Banks is now under investigation in the UK. (I think)

There are now also links to Wikileaks as after the sexual assault allegations against trump, the Clinton emails were released by WikiLeaks which took the media spotlight OFF trump.
The high ranking official supposedly text Stone saying 'well done' (so it was planned)
In his effort to ascertain the relationship between WikiLeaks and associates of the Trump campaign, Robert Mueller has expanded his investigation to include Britain.
Mueller’s office had asked about the Farage’s relationship to Trump associates during witness interviews earlier in the year. Mueller has also reportedly asked questions about Banks, who donated £8 million to Farage’s efforts.
A friend of Stone, Corsi, announced that he expects to be indicted, following months of cooperation with the Mueller probe, for lying under oath. Corsi is believed to be a potential intermediary for communications involving Stone and WikiLeaks, and the release of hacked Clinton campaign e-mails.
Corsi told The Guardian that he was specifically asked about Farage. Farage had raised the interest of FBI investigators because of his relationships with individuals connected to both the Trump campaign and Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder whom Farage visited in March, apparently to do an interview for LBC.

So as RTB said, that is the histoy to the links between Mueller and Farage/Brexit.

So Jake Sherman saw the special investigators plane ( as he follows them to see if there is an interesting story) in London and it started a twitter thread that then had comments about Farage ( and therefore Brexit) and t was pointed out by journo Carole who is the one who has been reporting about CA.

So it is all twisted and tied together. Hence it being relevant to a brexit thread.

^^Summary is how I THINK it is connected. Maybe. Feel free to correct me if needed! Typing it out actually got it clearer in my head so I just kept going to connect it to comments on this thread and I needed a timeline all together as I read far too many old newspaper reports that lead to more googling and more newspaper reports

Aaaaand now I have probably xposted with loads so feel free to ignore!

Sostenueto · 23/03/2019 02:07

Getting very suspicious in my old age. TM being a crafty old bird will more likely not present her WA and continue to wind the clock down and pretend she's doing something by allowing indicative votes and whipping against each one till 12th April. Then......who knows? Is it really clear TM is now set on no deal? Good luck all tomorrow be safe! Xx

TheMostBoringPersonEver · 23/03/2019 02:09

I have yet to figure out who the hell Alexander Nix is and what boris has to do with all of this! Damn that twitter thread!

LonelyTiredandLow · 23/03/2019 04:11

@TheMostBoring - not a bad summary!

Cambridge Analytica harvested over 50mil FB profiles that could be linked to Electoral Rolls. They then created an algorithm which used
the harvested profiles data to link personality traits and determine voting behaviour.. This is where the 3mil swing voters were extensively targeted in the referendum - these were people who had not previously voted but were spurred to vote leave because their data had been harvested illegally. It is a psychological warfare tool.

Nix is the CEO of Cambridge Analytica.

There is a lot more too it if anyone is interested here.

LonelyTiredandLow · 23/03/2019 04:15

Sorry for typos...can't sleep!
Must sleep.

As an aside to the post on Bannon, newcomers may be interested to note he has recently been in raptures over BoJo... That is clearly who US would like to take over from TM.

dimsum321 · 23/03/2019 05:59

“In the land of the blinded, wolves may sometimes be mistaken for guide dogs." So apt.

dimsum321 · 23/03/2019 06:01

Good luck to the marchers. Stay safe. So sad I can't be there, but I will be there in spirit and checking the news on my phone every 5 mins even though no phones allowed at my work.

pepinana · 23/03/2019 06:33

Good luck all. I really did want to come today but I had to travel at rush hour yesterday and had a hideous panic attack. Don't want to risk it again. Thank you everyone who is going Flowers

speakout · 23/03/2019 06:33

Sorry for not reading this whole thead, so apologies if this has not been answered and like others I am trying my hardest to keep up with the Brexit situation.

But just a question- was planning to have a third vote next week in parliament, but I thought the speaker made it clear that won't be allowed.
Now May is saying there is uncertainty over whether there will be a vote as there is little support. Is that the case- or is the fact that she knows Bercow will overrule?

QueenOfThorns · 23/03/2019 06:44

Phew! Caught up at last. Good luck to everyone marching today and thank you.

Also thanks for the explanations about Farage and Mueller etc

frumpety · 23/03/2019 06:52

Sos the same thought had crossed my mind. So if TM doesn't do MVIII , does that mean cliff edge April 11th ? Unless Parliament can come up with something and what worries me is that if they vote on revoke too early they wont be able to vote on that again ? Its hard to keep up with it all Smile

Good luck to all those marching today , give those banners/placards/toothbrushes a good wave from all of us who cannot make it Star

67chevvyimpala · 23/03/2019 07:01

We are up and getting ready.

I will be thinking of you all as I march today ❤🇪🇺

Bananagio · 23/03/2019 07:09

Good luck today marchers and big thanks from this citizen of nowhere in Italy.

bellinisurge · 23/03/2019 07:10

Bercow is only "overrruling" a word for word /substantially the same words repeat.
Any lawyer and/ or Parliamentary wordsmith worth their salt can come up with a new motion to vote on.

Good luck everyone!

Camomila · 23/03/2019 07:15

prettybird the light blue coat is my favourite thing about TM, I mention what a nice coat it is to DH every time I see her wear it Grin Blush

Good luck to all those marching today, I will be making do with putting pics of my placard on social media (DS has chicken pox)

frumpety · 23/03/2019 07:15

That sounds a bit more positive Bellini thank you. I just couldn't see how you could make the UK revoking sound a lot different to the UK revoking iyswim ? Unless they pop in a 'in the event of …….. '?

LonelyTiredandLow · 23/03/2019 07:17

WA has to have some changes before it will be allowed back. It's easy enough to do - maybe just with new extension date?

Good luck everyone today. Got a couple of hours zzz here at least!

Some nice stories of why people are marching from the Guardian.

QueenOfThorns · 23/03/2019 07:18

prettybird the light blue coat is my favourite thing about TM, I mention what a nice coat it is to DH every time I see her wear it

It’s a lovely colour, but I noticed on pictures this morning that the sleeves appear to only be elbow length, which is odd. No wonder she wears another coat underneath!

frumpety · 23/03/2019 07:18

Can I request that you all take some photos so those of us not going can enjoy it vicariously ? Wont be able to access social media until about 6pm, it would be nice to have something to look forward to Smile

LarkDescending · 23/03/2019 07:24

On the coat - isn’t it a double-layered design? Similar to the black twofer she used to wear?