Westminstenders: Flextension

[RedToothBrush]

Just wrote an intro and wiped it. So this is as quick as I can sum up.

EU response is extension to 22nd May if May passes her deal by 29th March

Or an unconditional extension to 12 April which could be extended with a plan and understanding to take part in EU elections.

This isn't what may wanted. It gives her less time and leverage

It opens up the possibility of her being ousted as PM in the next couple of days. Graham Brady asked her to quit on Monday. Remain Cabinet ministers are threatening to quit if May whips a vote to support no deal.

The talk is May has indeed flipped to supporting no deal with many think she's pretty much gone full on Colonel Kurtz.

The EU are in effect supporting parliamentary sovereignty and are being incredibly reasonable.

May now has to decide whether to accept.

The whole situation looks explosive and likely that one half of the cabinet or the other are on the brink of walking. And May's power is so shattered.

However she remains the gatekeeper and as it stands if she's hell bent on no deal, it will be extremely difficult for Parliament to prevent that.

On a more serious note, Theresa is back home and has been busy. She's written to all MPs

Nick Eardley @ nickeardley
NEW: Theresa May has written to all MPs tonight ahead of crunch week at Westminster - offering talks with MPs who want them

OT, but shows the contempt the state apparatchiks have for the ordinary people it controls supports:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/22/dwp-document-refers-to-benefit-claimant-as-lying-bitch

The Department for Work and Pensions has been criticised after one of its officials apparently submitted papers to a benefits appeal tribunal in which they called a disabled claimant a “lying bitch”.

The submission, formally rejecting an appeal by a disabled woman against the removal or downgrading of her personal independence payment (PIP) award, was made public by her outraged advice worker.

In an extract from the papers, the DWP official questions whether the claimant is genuinely entitled to carer’s allowance, a benefit for people who care for another person for at least 35 hours a week.

“In this lying bitches [sic] case she is receiving the mid-rate carers [sic] allowance component for providing day time supervision to another disabled person.
The tribunal may wish to explore this further,”
the official writes.

I'm hearing revoke mentioned more and interestingly that's the first option given in her letter. A little spark of hope ignites.

Portiacastis
Well exactly. The roads are hummin slow anyway. Lorry drivers are already used to sitting in hour long pile ups.
How about turning the engines off, guys, while you go slow.
Might stop our children choking even more.

So point 3..we can take part on elections and get an extension. I bet thats the one that happens.

Blimey, Portia, I’m impressed- you hate London!

See y'all tomorrow ... it will be pinned to my lapel like a corsage

A little spark of hope ignites.

Not for me - she put that first to try to scare brexiteers in to voting for her deal. Option b was there is scare remainers. She put her option last so it comes across as a sane option after the other (insane) option.

My current hope is that they pass the WA with the proviso of a PV. Sufficient numbers on the march tomorrow may see a swing in MPs opinions on a PV as an option. The main obstacle to a PV is JC - Tom Watson is going on the march. the Labour Party conference want a PV, as do SNP, Lib Dems and TIG (and probably more). If JC can remove his head from his own backside there's a chance.

Revoke is actually the most straightforward option - but politically difficult / requires courage
A PV would add political legitimacy, but the quesion of whether to include No Deal is dynamite

I am seriously concerned that the "indicative votes" may be MPs unicorn hunting again

e.g.
.All deals will require a backstop, either all-Uk or NI-only, because noone trusts the UK not to renege
.Canada++ is only possible with an NI-only backstop
.The SM is only possible with FOM & ECJ
.Common Market 2.0 looks an attempt at an alternative EEA, which could take 10 -15 years to negotiate - but won't because the EU would just refuse to start

The list of indicative votes should require confirmation from the EU as to their acceptance / feasibility
since the HoC has form for voting for options not available

I've been getting the same pop-ups on other sites as well as MN today.

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/m4-brexit-truckers-protest-motorways-16015371

Protest's going well in Wales, too!

Oh why didn't think of cutting out stars!???

Mine look like daffodils in the scorching heat...😔

Ch4 reporting that TM will not bring back MV111 unless she has the numbers.

Channel 4 News reporting that T May says there won't be an MV3 after all due to lack of support? So an automatic No Deal in April??

Philippe Lamberts on C4 News right now - 'The Prime Minister is totally inept at handling this'.

He still sees No Deal as the most likely outcome.

He didn't hold back in cataloguing May's utter inability to be flexible and communicate with not only the other EU27 but also her own party. Referenced the disastrous TV appearance the other night, too.

That’s big

So what is happening now????

Can she just go for no deal after the parliamentary vote- that would imply doing absolutely nothing but running down the clock for three weeks?

Can she get away with that- and she won't be able to blame the MPs for her inaction.

Is the Letwin-Boles-Benn strategy scuppered if she doesn’t move MV3 and they therefore don’t have a motion to hang their amendment on?

Sorry what was their amendment?

chevvy easiest way is to draw 2 equilatrel triangles the same size but put one on top of the first one the other way up and arrange them so the ends of the stars are sticking out.
I learnt that When I was a child.

See here re Letwin-Boles-Benn - though this contemplates it would have been put forward on Monday before a likely MV3 on Tuesday.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-parliaments-47670347

@Charlottejbt

No not straight to no deal, looks like the latest may be that she won't hold the meaningful vote but will hold indicative votes instead, one of which would be her deal. That's according to Peston. Who knows!

Who knows, indeed! :(

Ch4 reporting that TM will not bring back MV111 unless she has the numbers.

Inevitable. Especially after the DUP told her to piss off.

Is the Letwin-Boles-Benn strategy scuppered if she doesn’t move MV3 and they therefore don’t have a motion to hang their amendment on?

No.

The other week they had amendments on the WA without the MV. But May had to allow the parliamentary session so they could do that...

... I suspect its going to be an additional obstacle...

Oh dear. Our neighbour has ended up in hospital. We’ve got their DC at the moment (his wife is with him). This might scupper me going to the march tomorrow. I probably can’t just take someone else’s children with me. Although they are quite politically active, so perhaps they wouldn’t mind.