Westminstenders: Neglectful Drunkeness!

[RedToothBrush]

The HoC has spend the past 3 years in a state of Neglectful Drunkeness.

As it stands less then two weeks from Brexit Day, there is no deal we were promised. The Conservative and Labour Parties are more divided than ever.

The government is in disarray as 8 Cabinet ministers plus the chief whip voted against the Prime Minister including the Brexit Secretary who had minutes earlier argued for an extension only to vote against it. He is now on the brink of resignation.

The DUP look like they may be about to capitulate and vote for a deal. But it may not be enough even then.

This is what the cliff edge looks like.

Who wants to take a closer look?

Oh great, TM seems to be offering Olly Robbins resignation rather than her own.

PM will go to Brussels on Thursday and apply for long A50 extension

Which is not assured ...

So we are getting to my deal or no Brexit then . Wonder which way ERG and DUP will play it ? Do they accept the WA and hard ball negotiations or play the long ball?

Wrt Tom Newton Dunn’s tweet, we really NOT the Kyle-Wilson amendment.

That Dutch article is really sobering.
And yes, the EU will cope fine without the UK.

I do hope Kate Hoey's electorate make clear that she is unelectable to them

KW amendment useless as only requires WA to be ratified by PV.

No mention of Revoke/Remain option.

Wonder which way ERG and DUP will play it ? Do they accept the WA

Given the general view the next PM will come from the ERG side of the party, any ERG member that votes for the deal will then be stuck having to live with it ... which would mean they'd have to carry the can for the shitfest of Brexit without the fig leaf of "It wasn't my idea". In fact seeing the WA passed and Brexit becoming a shitfest might swing the party away from hard Brexiteers ?

Also, TM has pretty much laid the ground to pull the MV and go for an extension anyway. After all, who's to say what the final numbers might be ?

I like to think Tm is playing a very long and complicated game of political chess where none of us know her strategy but the end game is remain. Sounds like a long extension is on the cards which then might ultimately lead to no brexit at all. I hope.

I think it will be Raab. BoJo and Hunt have supporters but also toxic assoc, Javid shot himslf in the foot with Begum. Raab has less shit on him.

I think it will be Raab. BoJo and Hunt have supporters but also toxic assoc, Javid shot himslf in the foot with Begum. Raab has less shit on him.

If you mean Raab is expendable and won't be missed ...

Javid will end up in a square off with Priti Patel - their support will be split and the world will have had the impression that the Tories are cuddly and inclusive whilst at the same time being totally safe from having a brown face as PM. If Patel or Javid think the Tory party has gone to this much trouble (which wasn't much, actually) to appease the racists outside it, just to have them hop into the driving seat .... well being a Tory does seem to affect the brain in strange ways.

The Dutch article was depressing and largely stated the truth. But there are some things which can be highlighted:

Attitudes very much changed after 2010 - although were going that way before but you will note that it's only Tory PMs who are mentioned. Those Europeans who are on the ball will realise that it is still predominantly a spat in the Tory party.

It says At the same time, many British felt uneasy with membership.
The problem here is the right wing press and now the BBC. However, 700,000 of us on the last demo showed that this may not be the whole story. Previous demos were well attended but e.g the one in March 2017 didn't get a mention on the BBC until the 6 o'clock news, and Carswell defecting from UKIP was their lead story!

... and a few sentences later Most British citizens, however, were unaware of these British achievements in Europe. The press was utterly skeptical. No British government ever managed to set up a good, domestic debate on Europe.
As can IMO be seen by the comments of Leaver posters on these threads - time and time again they will come up with examples which are the responsibility of Westminster but go silent on other issues: e.g. Remain voting MPs in Leave areas ought to resign. Ask them about Leave voting MPs in Remain areas and they go silent.

Parliament at long last waking up might begin to address this.

Steven Swinford@StevenSwinford

I'm told 30 Eurosceptic Tory MPs are still opposed to PM's deal & ERG calls over the weekend suggest positions have hardened

A lot hinges on DUP, but Eurosceptics increasingly believe she'll have no choice but to pull MV3^
.....
Stephen Ruth@stephenrth

She can't win.

And I don't think she can win immediately after EUCO either.

This list of 23 MPs will not vote for it.
And that isn't even an exhaustive list because it doesn't include Steve Baker, Bill Cash and more - who also won't vote for it.
.....

Owen Paterson MP@OwenPaterson

I and 22 other MPs have written to the @Telegraph today.

If the UK leaves the EU as planned on March 2019, “no deal” will prove to be the precursor to a very good deal indeed.
🤦🏻‍♀️

Peregrina When you add the Tory and UKIP MEPs predicted from the EP election poll I posted,
they total 45% of UK vote / MEPs
Quite likely includes Farage back - which Tusk & co won't like at all

The UK were the nucleus for years of the anti-EU faction there, which helped them grow

@Andrew_Adonis
Mrs May isn’t even close to having the votes to carry her Meaningful Vote 3, which is why she still hasn’t announced it. Boris Johnson’s column this morning is a declaration of no surrender.

We are heading to a long extension of Art 50 & a referendum

She could probably - but not certainly - get a 2 month extension,
just so the EU can say they gave the UK every chance to avoid No Deal.

However, to give consent to a long extension, the EU would want a commitment to EP elections and also a plan of what the UK would do with the extra time.

If May has no plan, other than to harangue them again, they might send her away to do her homework

A year of dithering and trying to renegotiate away the backstop probably won't be an acceptable plan.

As an Irish person, I had been hoping for revoke to happen. However, I am now changing my mind. I really don't want a load of toxic, anti-EU, saboteur, MEPs elected from the UK. The EU has been of huge benefit to Ireland and, while I would regret the loss of our unique relationship with the UK, I think the UK remaining in the EU, unless there is another referendum that votes very strongly for remain, would be very negative for Ireland and the EU as a whole. Obviously, I want a brexit that adheres to the GFA so at this stage, I hope the WA gets approved next week.

I'm not too confident that a referendum would have a large remain vote. Speaking to work contacts in the UK, some are saying that they voted remain but would vote leave now as they are just sick of it all.

Mother 😂
A lot of Brexit jokes here too
Brexit will be providing fodder for EU comedians for years to come

"Doing a Brexit" may be translated into several languages as making a humiliating mess of a task.

Sorry didn't finish:
MPs advocate „solutions” that are politically or legally impossible. Prime Minister Theresa May, a Remainer, based her initial Brexit strategy on a misconception. She thought she could close the EU door behind her and then, from the outside, choose the programs that she wanted to participate in. Mrs. May was Interior Minister when European Justice cooperation started. She declined to participate - another pre-Brexit signal. But a little later, from the outside, she opted into a few forms of cooperation, such as the European search warrant.

Absolutely spot on, which was pointed out back in 2016.

It's also a factor that when the European Coal and Steel Community was formed later to become the EEC, Churchill talked about a United States of Europe but he saw the UK as an outsider, looking towards its Commonwealth. As one who was at primary school in the 50s and early 60s, we were stuffed full of stories of Empire, while on the TV we would see this country followed by that, hauling down the Union Jack and some other flag was run up. Heath did take us in, but Heath wasn't a popular PM. The UK then woke up to the fact that it had missed the boat, and set up EFTA - which had a lot of the current EU members in.

However, either we get the WA and talks will drag on and on, and people will get heartily sick of it, and will begin to ask why knife crime isn't being dealt with, why the NHS and their schools are being starved of cash, why they can't get decent housing... The Tories will try to shift the blame but I am by no means certain that it will work.

Or we crash out and with food and medicine shortages then I think the ERG/DUP/Theresa May will get the blame.

I would hope then that a new generation coming forward, not stuffed full of silly stories of Empire, but used to foreign travel and with EU friends and partners will realise that yes, we do need to belong to the EU and yes there is maybe more than a trading relationship to be had.

Ever closer political union was probably possible with the original Six, but I doubt whether it's feasible with 27/28/29 or however many, so I suspect a looser structure will eventually win the day.

But who knows?

We aren't any closer to knowing if there will be a vote tomorrow are we?

I think it'll be a mix of both: a very tightly integrated core (6-12 nations) and a looser sphere around it. The UK i believe was the one opposed to varying degrees of political integration as it feared being left behind or losing clout but it's really what we're heading towards. Isn't it what Macron suggested in his much-maligned letter anyway?

I like to think Tm is playing a very long and complicated game of political chess where none of us know her strategy but the end game is remain

It's a nice fantasy to drift off into when the reality is all getting a bit much, isn't it? The idea that far from being an incompetent, blinkered, dishonest, immigration obsessed walking disaster, she's actually a master of 4d chess and operates at a level far beyond all our understanding...

I cannot stand the suspense.

www.itv.com/news/2019-03-18/ministers-expect-a-nine-month-brexit-delay/