Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea

[RedToothBrush]

After May lost the Meaningful Vote last night by a long way she has lost control of the agenda. She managed to persuade just 40 out of the 116 she needed to support here.

This leaves us all adrift with nothing apparent to a solution.

May announced that tonight's vote will be to stop No Deal. She has announced that it will be a free vote and she herself intends to vote against No Deal. This looks set to be blocked but the amendments that go with it are more important. Particularly the Spelman / Dromey amendment which is pitched to stop no deal completely (it doesn't) which is more about trying to kill off a Meaningful Vote III instead.

Tomorrow's vote is perhaps more important though. Its about an extension to a50. We NEED an extension. However the length of the extension is yet to be argued as is the purpose of the extension.

This is also against whispers that the Italian Far Right group has been lobbied by Leave.EU and Farage has directly asked Eurospectics in the EP to veto any extension. Whether this would happen remains to be seen but it certainly raises questions over an extension is even now possible. This was always a probable action; Banks & Farage have for 3 years aggitated to cause maximum problems for the government. Its also true that they only have power due to this dynamic of being a hostile force.

With No Deal so catastophic that Hammond today made the point in his Spring Budget that, if he feels there's almost nothing he'd feel able to do to mitigate the effects of what he sees as the car crash of no deal, this leaves one option on the table. Ironically it is possible that the actions of Banks and Co might be more likely to have that effect rather than to stop an extension. The question, however, would then be whether May had the guts to revoke.

We certainly have, at least, reached crunch point. Have we done so too late to make a difference? And will our new found sovereignity be twarted by Brexiteers inviting the interference of foriegn hostile forces to intervene?

Isn't EEA++ essentially pretty much "Remain?" the "++" = what?

chevvy EEA++ would be what we aim for in transition
The EU have said there's no renegotiation

They are really pushing the WA, so it's not that we'd be welcome back in our current angry state

louisecollins The EEA 3rd pillar is SM+customs arrangement

It's the compromise that shoud have agreed by all parties right after the referendum, after such a close result

{The UK - humiliated - would probably be a far worse pain than before in the EU, actively disrupting business to posture to the public, working with the growing far right populist parties

• and maybe working from the inside with the US to destroy the EU and get what they want that way.

That the UK could be a danger is often expressed here and by EU analysts}
I don't think it takes much analysing, I think Farage has actually said that is his plan.
The UK will take a year or more to work out what the hell it wants, involving a GE and whatever ultimately. The biggest issue is that even with the WA signed, crashing out or even revoking there is no consensus in UK government. Why should the EU suffer due to this fuckwittery?
NO ONE has made any achievable suggestions about how to improve the UK economy or resolve any of the reasons behind Brexit.

I don't know if even Revoke would stop all this continuing for decades

Nothing at this point will stop arguing over the EU. But it’s very much the older generation’s obsession. In 10 years many will be retired or dead.

The country is actually getting bored and fed up of the whole thing. Ironically particularly Leave voters who were never very politically engaged in the first place and just took a punt that life might be sunnier.

The problem is that public hostility to the EU won't go away just because the PM / HoC or even a PV reverse the referendum

In terms of the public - I think a lot of it is manufactured and hyped up. Cf the famous graph. We get some gilet jaunes with their placards, but I suspect it will be underwhelming.

On the other hand, the opposition and hostility to Brexit will never let up either. It will increase as our economic situation worsens.

BiglyBadgers - the deadlock will be broken when May gets her WA through,

The WA is a fricking zombie. Just because bit keeps coming back doesn't make it any less dead. I find it completely boggling that people talk it's a close run thing. Of course all the MPs could suddenly change their minds in a sudden about face, but I personally don't think it will ever pass however many times May keeps waving under people's noses. The only way if would be passed is if she put it to a PV and it got voted on. This is her one incentive for ending up with a PV in my view.

There is now the existential problem that if the EU are seen to be pushing the WA too hard, then real headbanger brexiteers will have to be seen to oppose it on "priniciple" after all the guff they've been spouting.

In fact, Theresa May is in risk of making herself a personal target if she carries on slamming this WA in front of parliament ... the ERG could go full rogue and claim she's gone native to the EU....

We really are in the midst of weird.

If the UK agrees to the WA, it's going to spend the next 3 years trying to find ways out of it rather than negotiate any trade deals. That much is a given. The ERG will simply regroup under the slogan "Brexit Betrayed" and continue to snipe from the sidelines.

Yep.

Thanks BCF. So basically leave the political institutions but keep everything else.

Well....if people hadn't immediately started trying to overturn the result!!...then maybe a compromise would have been arrived at more readily.

DGR - i think the next tory govt will be heavily influenced by the ERG and hold several key posts, its theirs and the UK's direction of travel.

If they walk away from the WA, so what! what can anyone do?

“I would have got away with it if it wasn’t for you pesky kids!”

Louise - EAA/EFTA was suggested from the very beginning but rejected as Brexit betrayal.

Agree again DG.

For pretty obvious reasons IMO, i.e. no end to free movement of people. Even though personally those reasons are of little consequence to me and I'm reasonably relaxed about continuation of free movement of workers.

If they walk away from the WA, so what! what can anyone do?

Well, bring down the government. And then we’re back to square one.

Camomilla - "balance" would still not be presented by the MSM

A wee while ago Sky News went to Edinburgh, which voted 74% Remain and their Vox Pox consisted of an EU citizen who didn't have a vote, 2 Leavers and a Remainer

Cameron ran away - he had a majority and the authority to make that compromise

May didn't and just gave into the ERG all the time

The rest of the HoC were too cowardly to do anything - they should have stepped up long before,
when we still had TIME to avoid No Deal

and also before the divide became so bitter
44% wanting No Deal, about 70% of Tory voters

That probably wouldn't have happened with an early compromise
The extremes filled the political vacuum

However, we are in this mess now
and we look to have a bitterly divided country for years, whatever happens

The least bad option would be a PV that delivered a clear vote for Remain - but that looks unlikely

It's such an almighty fuck up all round.

I wouldn't worry what German politicians say. Having lived in Germany, their political system is chaotic most of the time, too many parties and factionalised. Also, the old order of individual states/principalities is still evident. There is no such thing as German coherence. We musn't forget that Angela Merkel has had her own considerable political problems in the past two years. Also Macron with violent unrest for the last three months where he has had to climb down and capitulate and is one of the most unpopular French leaders in modern times. They are all piling in because they feel our plight gives them the opportunity to do it.

My hero is Kenneth Clark. He said it all yesterday afternoon in the debate before the vote, particularly the fact that those Brexiteers who talk about WTO rules. He inferred that only third-world countries use those who aren't big and powerful enough to trade with others.

Brexiteers think it's acceptable to moan about being rule takers in the EU and taking back control of our own laws etc. then want to prostrate themselves to America and let them kick us around instead.

Allowing the UK to bugger around almost indefinitely, with new UK MEPs, many who will be anti EU and being destructive is not good for the EU.

If we end up needing to delay beyond the EP elections a sensible government ( which we don't have) would say.
Look we are stuck in this trading bloc for X months anyway and we will need an ongoing agreement later...why don't you- the electorate actually vote for once and choose sensible, balanced MEPs. They can then be a positive voice for reform ( if needed) even if only for the remaining X months.

It just took me about 5 minutes to realise MSM was mainstream media. I was sitting there thinking of all the news channels I could remember and thinking you guys had found a new one somehow.

- off to make more.

Agree with your last post BCF, the "cut and run" from David Cameron was really, really poor.

Excellent analysis of possible A50 extension scenarios

by Eleanor Sharpston, QC, the UK Advocate General at the ECJ

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