To be devastated that TM has secured these new legally binding documents...

[Crimson72]

...because it basically means that JRM’s lot and the DUP will finally throw their weight behind the PM and her new deal - and Brexit WILL go ahead on the 29th.

I was hoping JRM/the DUP would vote against the PM for a second time tonight, which would almost certainly have meant a delay to article 50 and made it far more likely that the whole thing just wouldn’t happen at all.

What actual changes are there?

I think the chances of the "new" deal getting through are zero.

But you can come back and say "I told you so" tonight if it does!

Oh shit. We are in Europe when brexit happens, its hassle we could do without.

Kier Starmer on Twitter is very clear and interesting on this.

So many MPs voted against it last time that I can’t believe the only problem with it was the backstop.

Cox's advice is out - risk of being in backstop "reduced" but legal risk unchanged - can't get out of backstop without agreement unless demonstrable failure by either party.

So political decision for MPs and advice may make the ladder to climb down distinctly wobbly...

Is it enough for the waiverers?

The deal will pass, because it will be just enough is my guess.

On the plus side op at least you can be glad that the country will remain a democracy, and just as we have voted to leave and it was respected, the same can be said if we vote to rejoin in the future. The fundamental principles of democracy are in tact.

given the scale of the defeat May would have to hope that DUP, ERG, non ERG hard brexiteers and Labour would come over to vote.

I guess we're waiting on a sign from DUP, ERG on their reflections on Cox's advice...?

The changes are that there is now a panel of independent arbitrators allowing the UK to leave should they feel the EU is acting in bad faith. It means we won’t be locked into a never ending back stop with no way out.

The changes are that there is now a panel of independent arbitrators allowing the UK to leave should they feel the EU is acting in bad faith. It means we won’t be locked into a never ending back stop with no way out.

Source? Keir Starmer is saying the opposite on twitter:

"However, the Withdrawal Agreement does not include a mechanism for unilateral exit from – or termination of – the backstop (or any other part of the Agreement) even where bad faith is made out."

twitter.com/Keir_Starmer?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Reports of DUP source saying they cannot back the deal, given Cox's advice. No official confirmation yet.

mobile.twitter.com/oconnellhugh

The DUP are a bunch of creationist women hating wankers. Heartbreaking that they are considered crucial.

Arbitration would only be applicable if one party is seen to be acting in bad faith, and the standard for such a test will be high. It doesn't provide a means of exit if both parties simply cannot agree.

Well, it looks like I spoke too soon as Geoffrey Cox has refused to change his legal advice! Surely this can only be a good thing for remainers, as now the deal will almost certainly be voted down tonight and article 50 will have to be delayed. Leaving the EU on 29th March is looking a lot less likely!

As a Remainer, I would prefer, if we have to leave, to do so via WA. Either Revoke or No Deal would lead to terrible unrest. I don't think Revoke would be as bad for the country as No Deal but the damage they could do would take generations to fix. WA is the least worst version of Leave.

Vince Cable was very interesting on Sky a little while ago saying he was optimistic that it was looking more and more as if Brexit was going to be (my word) thwarted. Deal thrown out and PV approved and won. I'm sure he was exercising bravado to an extent but I think it's possible. And whilst I completely understand and sympathise with the fears expressed by bellinisurge I'd still love to see us stay in - and then address all the underlying causes of the last three years.

DUP and ERG have said they will not support the deal - unclear if they'll vote against or abstain. But unlikely now that the deal will pass.

As a Remainer, I would prefer, if we have to leave, to do so via WA. Either Revoke or No Deal would lead to terrible unrest.

I'm really surprised that as a remainer, you wouldn't want to revoke. Yes revoke isn't the perfect option, since there would clearly be huge issues with people feeling disenfranchised and like their vote didn't count. But surely even that is preferable to leaving the EU and all the issues that will inevitably bring?

I would prefer revoke , but with that agreement that we get our shit together , sort our economic mess out, get a credible plan and then put it to the people again.

"DUP and ERG have said they will not support the deal - unclear if they'll vote against or abstain. But unlikely now that the deal will pass."

This is great news - I'm feeling cautiously optimistic that a50 will now be extended and the whole thing will be put on ice and eventually shelved. Yes the EU is by no means perfect but it's better than than the alternative!

I’m a Remainer

I hope we Remain!

I also would prefer article 50 not to be extended - that’s just increases the uncertainty for longer which has already caused so much damage to the economy.

She needs to revoke asap - I can dream.........

Either Revoke or No Deal would lead to terrible unrest

No Deal definitely could. Revoke would not and we could get back to some sort of normality although clearly a great deal of damage has been done. But Revoke won't lead to food shortages which would be a big reason for civil unrest. You'd have a few Kippers shouting the odds, but most people would shrug their shoulders and get on with life.

@Dongdingdong , Revoke-much as I would like it - would bring its own kind of chaos. I doubt most of the harrumphing Leavers would actually kick off but some would. And it would feel like a betrayal to those people even if it would be the better option. The damage that would do to our country would be massive and leave us vulnerable to extreme voices.
It's going to be a long time before we centre ourselves again and WA seems to me like the least worst way to that.