Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

Yes, well her husband got a pay rise this year so they will probably just say they will be fine. The main problem she has is that she just renovated and remortaged, so she needs her property to be worth more and low interest rates in 8 months time when their fixed rate runs out...oops! I suspect only then will she notice. Apart from it will be EU's fault or some other reason.

pretty The Scottish political class are mostly Remain, but how much interest had they in the EU and working within its institutions before ?

They may know and understand it better than Westminster, but that's a really low bar

Wales is a curious mixture. The vast majority of the political class here voted Remain, including my MP, (who is now a member of the ERG) But the popular vote was for Leave. I heard a lot of vox pop at the time talking about "all these immigrants" - in the Welsh Valleys where there are actually very few immigrants. What I didn't hear was strong campaigning, pointing out how much Wales has benefited from EU membership.

Same around my area. That feeling was especially strong among people who have never moved away from home.

Lurking along. Still haven't bounced back from being ill and the house is in disarray. I've been really panicking about being incapacitated and letting DP down and the two of us descending into personal chaos (see house) BUT we've somehow, sorta, kinda, managed and my response to this is to find it hilarious/glorious. Anyhoo that has transcended into me finding brexit and news in general also hilarious...I was wondering if I've gone mad but then yesterday I read the Miranda Yardley thread from start to finish and decided the whole entire country has gone mad and i am remarkably sane.

So cheers

Both my kids have the cough/throat/cold lurgy which means I'm next!

I'm avoiding brexshit news atm.

It's all so....I dont even have the words...

Well, 4.5 years ago, the Indyref campaign was arguably lost because Scotland was threatened with being thrown out of the EU - so it was seen as important to Scots even then.

There was a long section in "Scotland's Future" (that strange beast, a White Paper written in advance of a referendum ) about Scotland's vision of its future role within the EU.

Article 50 was written by a Scot. (although it's arguable that he should have written it more clearly )

The First Minister (whether that was Alex Salmond or Nicola Sturgeon) often made (and make) trips to the EU (and elsewhere) to advance Scotland's cause - and got told off by Unionists for not doing the day job

Alistair Carmichael, at the time Secretary for State for Scotland, spread lies for political gain during the 2015 GE Campaign about what was said in a meeting between Nicola Sturgeon and the French Ambassador (and only got away with it in the electoral court where constituents claimed he had breached electoral law in order to very narrowly- retain his seat because "people expect politicians to lie" but the court didn't award him costs so it still cost him £250k-- )www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33408441 - so not exactly evidence that they were "not showing an interest"

If you recall, Nicola Sturgeon was straight out of the blocks after the result of the Referendum, reaffirming Scotland's commitment to the EU and welcoming EU citizens in Scotland and then going to howls of outrage from WM to Brussels to point out that Scotland still wished to remain.

And Scotland (as we discussed yesterday ) has only recently had to to endure a UKIP MEP. The rest of our MEPs are pretty effective

I think where the naivity came in was amongst some Scots not realising how strong the anti-EU sentiment was in England. I had a big argument in August 2014 with a "on-the-fence", pro-EU friend who was going to vote No because she was concerned about the risk to EU membership. She wouldn't believe me when I said the greater risk to our EU membership was Westminster - but did promise that if I was correct, she would campaign for Indyref2 and Yes (she has stood by that promise ).

I most certainly remember Nicola Sturgeon immediately going to Brussels, while Gove and Johnson looked absolutely stunned and Johnson buzzed off to play cricket.

I think anti-EU was only among the English ruling classes - the average English person neither knew nor cared.

I wish it were so, peregrina but alas, 40 years of hate have done their work on the English public, not so much the s
Scots

Probably half of English Remain voters don't actually like the idea of the EU, but regard it as a necessary evil for economic reasons.

Pretty much May's views pre-ref, imo.

btw, pretty I read that about 30% of SNP voters were for Leave

Was this a genuine wish not to be in the EU, e.g. because of fishing, or nationalism,
or was it a tactice to increase the chance of independence ?

Reports that ERG and DUP have together assembled a group of lawyers to check whatever Cox brings back

James Forsyth@JGForsyth

The significance of the group of lawyers that the ERG have assembled to examine ‘Cox’s codpiece’ 😮 🤮
is that Nigel Dodds is on it. Means ERG and DUP will end up in the same place

I think anti-EU was only among the English ruling classes - the average English person neither knew nor cared.

Unfortunately they are heavily influenced by the media especially the tabloids.

uk.news.yahoo.com/eus-top-negotiator-thinks-uk-164249241.html

What will happen if we reach the question mark?

Nick Gutteridge@nick_gutteridge

Spot the difference

🇫🇷 Macron: We'd in no way accept an extension without a clear objective
🇩🇪 Merkel: If UK needs more time we won't oppose it

Macron takes official EU line there must be a reason. Merkel closer to private view in Brussels that UK will get extension regardless.

Littlespaces None of these flowcharts seem to have No Deal as an endpoint on any of their possible flows

Too unthinkable even for a flowchart ?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/01/chuka-umunna-i-never-felt-totally-comfortable-in-the-labour-party

That suprised me said no one ever

BigChoc - I've also seen the figure that c 30% of SNP supporters also support Leave - and it is probably correct: especially if you also accept the corollary that that means that 70% of them support remain - so a higher proportion than the country as a whole.

But the SNP voters - contrary to popular perception - are not a homogeneous mass.

But like Leave voters elsewhere, they will be against the EU for a variety of reasons.

Some because they disagree with TTIP and the "fact" that EU membership meant that we would be subjected to it (I've come across a few of those )

Some because they would rather be a member of EFTA, so that we could "recover" our fishing rights.

Some because they, like the ERG, just hate the EU and our "loss of sovereignty" and see opportunities to make money out of the chaos .

Only a few, imho, because they think of it as a tactic to advance the cause of independence because we are not generally that stupid or nasty

As I've said before (and I know others who share this opinion), I'd rather not have to go through the chaos of a No Deal Brexit because of the damage it would cause the poorest and most vulnerable, even if it might mean we get independence sooner.

Although I have to admit, there are times that I do think "Hell mend them" and that the only way to lance the boil of the extreme Brexiters and the ever-lasting cake eaters and the "sun never set on the British Empirers" is to let them experience the chaos and that that is the only way for them to learn Britain's true place in the world as a small island off the continental shelf of Europe.

And then I remember that it is not fair on the 16+ million that voted Remain - and the young of this country who weren't able to vote

Littlespaces What will happen if we reach the question mark?

If when we do it'll be the 15th of march otherwise know as the ides of march...

Has this been posted yet?

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0301/1033805-silence-brussels-extension/

A lot of English people, although it's not just confined to the English, regard anyone who comes from 20 miles away as foreign. We are also deplorably bad at languages. Were it not so, I suspect we would be more open to what the EU offers.

I grew up in Wales, and was treated like a foreigner when moving back to England, so I have some first had experience. Moving to one of those communities where everyone is related to everyone else and has lived there since the year dot. Closed minds doesn't begin to describe it.

And it won't be the Rees-Moggs, Johnsons, Davises and Farages of the UK who suffer. Although there is some comfort in thinking that Farage might require a 'holiday' in the USA.

Alexander Clarkson
‏*@APHClarkson*

Alexander Clarkson Retweeted Fraser Nelson
Well, it would certainly mean that Conservative Party MEPs can keep their jobs

Fraser Nelson
@FraserNelson
A year-long delay is better than signing May’s awful deal says Dan Hannan www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/02/no-self-respecting-country-would-accept-deal-mps-must-vote/ …

That AIBU thread bemoaning the reduction of MFL in UK schools
had mostly responses that there was no point for British people to learn languages as everyone spoke English

Some said schools should drop MFL completely
A couple said schools should only teach what entry level jobs needed

Dreadfully low aspirations that some want to force on the younger generation

but seeing all those posts on a supposedly leftwing fre-thinking site like MN illustrates again why Leave won:
determination to stay inside the English / British bubble and resist European influences

Mandarin was thought more relevant than French or German - i.e. languages of our neighbours

Also resentment of those who can take up opportunities in European countries and Leave

Barnier Interview

StefanieBolzen@StefanieBolzen

Exclusive: ‘Patience of EU27 is wearing thin,’
Brexit chief negotiator Michel Barnier tells @welt

– but signals #Brexit compromise.
Main take-aways of our interview (thread)

1/ General readiness by EU27 to extend Art 50.
But EU27 will ask for what. ‘Aim mustn’t be to postpone solving the problem but to solve it’

2/ Any extension ‚is extension of uncertainty for citizens and business on both sides‘

3/ Extension would have to be agreed by EU Council, i.e. won’t happen before March 21
Needs unanimity of EU27.

4/ Barnier confirms extension could cause legal problems if UK still EU member during EU elections May 23-26.
‘UK has rights and obligations as a member’

5/ Re backstop Barnier knows of “mistrust in UK’.
Therefore 27 ‘ready to give more guarantees, confirmation, clarification that backstop is only temporary’
< Tory politicians think everyone is as dishonest as they are themselves >

6/ EU27 will not allow time limited backstop or unilateral exit though.
‘What is possible is assurance that the event of the backstop is limited by an agreement on future relations’

7/ Assurance could be ‚document like letter by Tusk/Juncker’ jointly agreed with written assurance by UK gov ‘which together would have stronger force’

8/ Barnier refused giving exact form of document
‘This is currently negotiated. Substance has priority to legal format’

9/ Re PV: Corbyn told Barnier that he was going to announce support of PV when he was in Brussels last week already

10/ Re MV / March 12:
‘Things seem to move. This is the optimism of the patient. There will be a way.’^

11/ Re Brexiters‘ criticism of him:
‘There has never been a spirit of punishment.
No dogmatism. No ideology.
Only the will to protect SM and peace in Ireland’

12/ ‘I do not lecture and have never lectured. I respect British politics.
And I regret Brexit. That’s all I can say’

13/ ‚Brexit will cause damage. UK leaves the Union.
Relations can only be less profound.
But this is what Britain wants’

14/ Barnier did not answer if he wanted to continue managing Brexit in next EU Commission.
‘Will work as long as I can be useful.
Will stay until end of Juncker mandate’

15/ ends & disclaimer: this is my personal non-native speaker summary of an interview done in French and published in German

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus189656629/Michel-Barnier-Ungeduld-der-27-EU-Staaten-mit-Grossbritannien-ist-spuerbar.html

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0301/1033805-silence-brussels-extension/

But behind the scenes the mood is darkening.

"Over the past six weeks member states, including those friendly to the UK, are being much more rigorous over the conditions under which an extension will be granted,"
says one senior source.

"It can’t be just hoofing the ball around the long grass."

< this is what I have noticed >