Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

Who reads leaflets these days?

Certainly few people seem to reading Tory leaflets any more.

A senior Tory MP was quoted as saying recently that when doorstepping these days - if homes have books on their shelves they likely won’t be voting Tory.

Cakeism continues at the Torygraph with suggestion we extend and leave in 2020!. This won't help May get public opinion on side surely, must have been funded by ERG as we know EU won't agree to an extension that long. More fire for a No Deal.

The deal that will come before Parliament next week represents a devastating failure of British statecraft. It would keep most of the costs of EU membership while junking most of the benefits. It would require Britain to cede part of its territory to foreign jurisdiction. It would allow Brussels to control our commerce with non-EU states even after we leave.

I’d be very surprised if supermarkets weren’t preparing for trouble. The quote from the British Retail Consortium implies as much. I expect there are some pretty stringent NDAs in place to stop it being talked about - we do know many organisations have signed these.
Of course “Waitrose Hires Militia To Guard Against Middle Class Avocado Riots” would be more fun, but sadly can’t be reported as such.

Who reads leaflets these days?
I thought all leavers read the remain leaflet as it told them what kind of Brexit they would be getting? I.e when it said if we leave the SM and CU it was then assumed that was what Brexit was. That was what the ERG and Farage have argued recently anyway...despite video footage of them saying it meant no such thing.

Also, “fake news” is an expression that should always be used ironically. Coz, Trump.

Who reads leaflets these days?
I thought all leavers read the remain (sic) leaflet as it told them what kind of Brexit they would be getting?

And I thought all leavers were meant to be dinosaurs.

Clavinova when pushed into a corner to ask what the leave vote was for the only thing Farage could come up with was the Remain leaflet.

So either they convinced half of the country to leave, or that was (shock horror) not true and non of them had a clue.

Besides if our paper and ink goes the way of the dinosaur then we needed trouble ourselves with leaflets

FFS, am typing on my phone walking in a wood. Spelling not great at the best of times but I should be taking in the nature!
non = none

Put your phone away Lonely&c! Look at the birds, trees, grey skies (if like here).

Several named retailers and fast food outlets have warned of possible food shortages:

Food retailers warn MPs on risk of No Deal Brexit

https://www.ft.com/content/71af1f88-230b-11e9-8ce6-5db4543da632

A no-deal Brexit would quickly trigger a jump in food prices and a reduction in choice of products,
British retailers have warned in the latest plea by big business against leaving the EU without a deal^
^
Food retailers warn of higher prices and gaps on shelves in event of no-deal Brexit^
^
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/01/28/food-retailers-warn-higher-prices-gaps-shelves-event-no-deall^^/^^
^
The bosses of several major supermarkets and fast food chains have waded into the Brexit debate, warning of higher prices and gaps on shelves if the UK leaves the EU without a deal in March.^
^
In a letter to MPs, the chief executives of Sainsbury’s, Asda and the UK arms of McDonald’s and KFC said
their “complex, just-in-time” supply chains would be “significantly disrupted in the event of no deal” as French officials impose customs checks in Calais < and the ports become logjammed >^
^
The UK imports about a third of its food from the EU and even more during March, when many fruits and vegetables, including lettuce and tomatoes, are out of season, the letter says.^
^
Some of Britain’s leading stores have warned that a no-deal Brexit will drive up food prices and pose a “significant” risk to the range of products on supermarket shelves^

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/top-retailers-warn-of-food-running-out-after-no-deal-brexit-1-5868922

Signatories to the retailers’ letter include Sainsbury’s, Asda, Marks & Spencer, the Co-Op, Lidl, Waitrose, Costcutter, KFC, McDonald’s and Pret A Manger as well as the British Retail Consortium.

They warned that the UK relies on Europe for almost one-third of its food, and that it will not be possible in a no-deal scenario to mitigate all risks to supply chains, many of which involve highly perishable goods.

Some cancer treatment may be delayed if there is a No-Deal Brexit

https://www.hsj.co.uk/policy-and-regulation/some-cancer-treatment-may-be-delayed-post-brexit/7024457.article

The government are expecting food shortages and hardship after a No Deal Brexit

Ministers are planning a “hardship fund” for Britons impoverished by a no-deal Brexit

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-hardship-fund-planned-for-surge-in-jobless-sthj7g79g

A leaked document from the cabinet committee dedicated to preparing for a chaotic rupture with the European Union
reveals the extraordinary scenarios being prepared for in Whitehall.

Other measures under consideration include using “tax and benefits policy” to offset rises in the cost of living,
protection for parts of the country “geographically vulnerable” to food shortages
and sourcing alternative food for schools, prisons and hospitals.

READ what the government says officially - a summary of the impact assessments that Soubry forced them to release

• she wants the full reports, because she fears this alarming report may actually understte the economic / trade problems

government impact report "Implications for Business and Trade of a No Deal Exit on 29 March 2019"

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/781768/ImplicationsforBusinessandTradeofaNoDealExiton29March2019.pdf

states the known eceonomic effects
and also that overall, ^neither business nor ordinary individuals are sufficiently prepared:

e.g.

16. Despite communications from the Government, there is little evidence thatbusinesses are preparing in earnest for a no deal scenario, and evidence indicates that readiness of small and medium-sized enterprises in particular is low.

For example, without an Economic Operator Registration and Identification (EORI) number, businesses would not be able to complete the necessary customs documentation for goods they are importing.^
As an EORI number registration is one of the most basic and straightforward parts of the process most businesses would need to undertake to prepare for no deal, this is assumed to be a generous indicator of overall readiness.

As of February 2019 there had only been around 40,000 registrations for an EORI number, against an estimate of around 240,000 EU-only trading businesses

Also, point 25:

HMRC has estimated that the administrative burden on businesses from customs declarations alone, on current (2016) UK-EU trade in goods could be around £13bn p.a.

As ASDA is part of Walmart who happily sell rifles and hand guns in the USA, I wonder if they will do so in future in the UK when things get deregulated?

I'm so sick of this. Fucking Cameron, Farage,** Johnson etc

Was this on the bloody bus??

• Vote Leave for "rises in the cost of living and some protection for parts of the country geographically vulnerable to food shortages".

• Vote Leave to source alternative food for schools, prisons and hospitals.

It's fucking insane and I'm sick of it. TM oh yes she's very happy to revisit the decision on killing foxes. Oh yes - fox hunting what fun. But no we can't revisit the advisory referendum- oh no. Never. That decision is one writ in stone for ever.

It.is. insane.

www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2019/03/brexit-nhs-threat-dark-money-190302102323640.html

Asked about the dark money influencing politics, Ramsay explains: "Dark money is any money that's used to influence politics and comes from a source that's hidden ... Many millions of pounds have been spent during the Brexit referendum, promoting a 'Leave' vote. And when we trace where that money comes from, it very quickly goes back to Britain's network of tax havens and secrecy areas and then it disappears ... so, we don't know who's pumping this money into our politics."

Well at least the chorus of "project fear" has disappeared.

However, I would be slightly concerned that the more doom-laden the outcome of no deal appears to be, the more likely it is everyone is going to go around with a well, they won't let that happen thought screwed into their heads. The bystander effect (again). Meaning no one will actually lift a finger to stop it.

You also have to question the criminal liability of a prime minister who is receiving this advice, and doing nothing to tackle it, beyond presenting a twice rejected plan to parliament.

If any dark money was involved in the first referendum then it should be investigated.

And the lies too.

Little yes I want to see more on the tax havens. I thought the reason for pushing for No Deal by ERGgers was that they could avoid the EU tax haven raids? Surely then we would be able to hold up their dirty laundry? I really want to know if EU are focusing on our tax haven islands as the first stop for paperwork as soon as we go past 30th March...(IIRC that's when it comes into effect?).

DG no, sadly "Project Fear" is still in effect. Leaver friend suggests it is all a ploy by supermarkets to keep people spending. As I mentioned she is pleased the shrinkage is "only" going to be 9% as it had been predicted to be higher prior to the impact assessment.

Planes/ferries/exports/imports/holidays/medicines - all are suffering extreme Project Fear news and it won't happen. Oh and it keeps the papers selling apparently . Not sure how that works if everyone is apparently rolling their eyes at it all, surely it puts people off instead?

Apologies for the mental image of holding up ERGgers "dirty laundry"

Just sat and did a gcse timetable for ds1.

Let's hope the exams aren't compromised.

Ffs.

I have to disagree with Ivan Rogers when he says the responsibility for this, because it's the British political class who increasingly lost interest in Europe

The English political class, yes, but not the British political class Unless yet again it is assumed that the Scottish political class does not count as British

Lonely&c suggest to your friend that she works out 10% (because easy) of her family income and deducts. Then ask her how that would impact on the family. But I expect she’ll shrug it off...