Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

And there was me hoping that Johnson could be found guilty of being unfit for public office, having wasted the Garden Bridge money and purchasing the illegal water cannons which had to be sold for scrap.

There seem to be no depths to which the Tories will plunge.

one coverup may be finally coming to an end though - Tory MP outraged, natch .....

Bob Seely MP@IoWBobSeely

I cannot see how this helps justice in any way, shape or form. I think it is disgraceful and completely unnecessary, TBH

Army veterans facing murder charges over Bloody Sunday within two weeks

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/01/army-veterans-facing-murder-charges-bloody-sunday-within-two/?WT.mcid=tmgliveapppiosshareAsG4vhdJBr1w

Army veterans are expected to be charged with murder within a fortnight over the deaths of Bloody Sunday protesters during the Troubles 47 years ago, The Telegraph understands.

Well-placed sources have suggested that four ex-paratroopers, now in their 60s and 70s, fear being told on March 14 they will face murder charges in connection with the notorious shootings in Londonderry in 1972.

Fourteen civilians were killed and another 14 wounded when the soldiers from 1 Para opened fire on a civil rights demonstration < UNARMED > in the city.

peregrina I'm afraid I've never expected this most teflon of politicians to face any consequences of his multiple cockups, often caused by his vanity

Grayling is another who seems likely to escape consequences of wasting hundreds of millions on ferries, probation service, trains

He ran May's 2016 election campaign for Tory leader, which excuses all

The only reason she might move him, to cock up elsewhere,
is that even May must be fileld with horror at the thought of Grayling responsible for transporting our food & other essential supplies, our exports ....

The public suffer a decade of austerity, while Tory politicians quander billions through vanity projects, ideology-based politics and general incompetence

{Army veterans are expected to be charged with murder within a fortnight over the deaths of Bloody Sunday protesters during the Troubles 47 years ago, The Telegraph understands.}

I suppose it is one way to ratchet up tensions in the run up to some important decision making.

So we should squash murder charges - murders of unarmed civilians by agents of the state - to keep the DUP & Tory right wing happy ?

Not a good precedent to set, if we are heading for major civil disorder

Pablo Rodriguez @ Suanzes
In today's paper, a long interview with @MichelBarnier He talked to El Mundo, La Stampa, Les Echos and Die Welt yesterday after Coreper's meeting. Brexit from every possible angle

Some ideas: is it still possible to approve and ratify the WA before March 29? "No, no". Even if May gets a "yes" an extension will be needed. "It would be called motivated, technical extension (..). If it takes two months for the procedure, it would be justified "

A 3 months extension fo Art 50? Six? 21 months? "We do not need much more time, we need decisions. All extension will prolong uncertainty for Europe. If there is extension, the integrity of the institutions, their ability to act must be protected"

"Barnier: "An extension should serve to fix a problem, not to delay the solution, not to postpone the problem three or six months. We should not risk prolonging the general uncertainty in Europe beyond the May elections"

What can be done to break the impasse? A third document. "Guarantees, assurances, can be offered in a document, I do not want to prejudge the form, not in the PD. We can imagine an interpretative document, with elements already included in the Tusk and Juncker letter"

"We now care about the substance, the content. That is the priority and we work with the British on the content, the guarantees, the trust elements to reinforce. The legal nature of this document is a question that will come later"

Is it rational to go for a no-deal of devastating consequences instead of accepting small change in the WA? "I have never said, and nobody has said, that a no deal has terrible consequences.They will be serious but we are ready. Consequences will be much more serious for the UK"

Full text (in Spanish) here
amp.elmundo.es/internacional/2019/03/02/5c7982aafc6c83d94e8b46f3.html?__twitter_impression=true

It is now officially a choice between no deal or an extension, regardless of whether Parliament passes the WA.

Are MPs paying attention???!

I watched a Youtube programme about the Quintshill rail disaster, 22 May 1915 which was truly terrible where a train carrying Scottish troops for the war crashed headlong into another train.
The relevance to mentioning it being that the UK government of the time managed the whole of the UK railway network with nearly double the track miles and stations and managed to get huge numbers of troops and materials shifted across the UK as well as running the usual passenger and freight services.

I remember reading an original Conan Doyle Sherlock Holmes story, in which he was calculating time and I was surprised to find that Victorians assumed a letter would arrive within 24 hours

So we should squash murder charges - murders of unarmed civilians by agents of the state - to keep the DUP & Tory right wing happy? Not a good precedent to set, if we are heading for major civil disorder

The GFA allowed for plenty of IRA/Loyalist terrorists, convicted of murder, to go free and efforts gone into the Bloody sunday outrage is unfortunately does not compare to the derisory investigation into the Omagh bombing.

The Paras shouldn't have been sent into a peacekeeping role, they were a front line attacking force, totally unsuited for this deployment and of course the soldiers have previously been cleared.

Much like the Abu ghraib investigations, these things always seem to stop just before someone important is about to be questioned :(

John Stevens @ johnestevens
Sigh of relief... Tory chairman @BrandonLewis says party will not be ready for a general election for at least a year

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6762799/amp/Tories-push-supporters-amid-talk-Brexit-deadlock-lead-general-election.html?__twitter_impression=true
Tory recruitment drive to let 'activists' join for free: Push for more supporters amid talk that the Brexit deadlock could lead to a general election

Tory voters will be able to join the party for free as a ‘registered supporter’.

The move to bring in more activists comes amid talk that the Brexit deadlock could lead to a general election.

The Tories were outgunned in the 2017 election by Labour, which has more than four times as many members.

The new ‘Conservative Community Network’ will give non-paying activists access to campaign materials to share on social media and a role in drawing up party policies.

They will not be able to take part in leadership ballots.

Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis said: ‘There are people all over the country who vote for us, support us, tweet about us, knock on doors with us, deliver leaflets for us, but are not necessarily ready or looking to become full paid-up members.

Isn't this stealing the LD idea? And doesn't it sound desperate coming from the Tories?

Suggests no GE until 2020. So I'm guessing the chances of one in the near future just sky rocketed.

The Sun.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/8543711/james-forsyth-brexit-days-to-go/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
MPs have 10 days to pass Theresa May’s Brexit deal or face a weaker Brexit negotiating position with the EU
Columnist James Forsyth warns of the dire consequences for Britain if Theresa May's Brexit deal is not passed by March 12

More 'It's officially No Deal or an extension'

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
NEW: Theresa May's allies are gaming how she could win a third meaningful vote after conceding that whatever Geoffrey Cox gets on the backstop may not be enough to secure a majority second time round

Ministers are now talking about "MV2" and "MV3"

A senior minister says the best they can currently hope for at MV2 is getting the scale of defeat down to "the dozens".

Whitehall source says if MV2 loses by 20-80 then No10 would be confident it could win MV3

Key is how the EU responds to an A50 extension request.

In one scenario drawn up in govt, the EU agrees to a 2 month delay but rules out a further extension. May allies believe that could create the "real cliff edge" at which her deal could pass:

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/fears-second-meaningful-vote-wont-pass-pms-brexit-deal?__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May’s Team Fears She Will Lose The Second "Meaningful Vote" And Is Now Plotting A Third Attempt
Allies of the PM conceded to BuzzFeed News that Geoffrey Cox may not be able to secure changes to the backstop that will convince MPs to vote for the deal.

Under one scenario gamed by senior figures in government, the EU could agree to May’s request for a “short, limited” extension of around two months, but then either rule out a further extension beyond June, or insist any further extension would have to be much longer to incorporate an election or referendum.

In this scenario, May’s allies believe, parliament would face a final choice in June between her deal, no deal, a softer Brexit, a lengthy delay, or revoking Article 50. Confronted with what ministers are calling the “real cliff edge”, they believe May’s deal could then secure a Commons majority, with the DUP, most ERG MPs, and some Labour backbenchers backing it.

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
In another scenario, the EU plays hardball and permits only a lengthy delay to allow an election or referendum. May allies say if Brussels did that she could bring the deal back to parliament at the end of March and it would look a lot more attractive

A reminder. (The first of many, many no doubt) Barnier said today that we'd need an extension just to facilitate ratification of the WA if it passed between now and 29th March.

At the time though 1tis the railway network had huge overcapacity, with duplicated lines as the railway companies had competed with each other. Beeching put paid to the spare capacity.

jas The GFA was a legal agreement by both countries and most parties
that convicted terrorists should be freed within 2 years

Terrorists who have not been found and convicted are still on the run, because they could even now be arrested, tried and jailed
The UK has tried to pursue some for extradition from other countries

Same rules should apply to soldiers

If the British govt wishes to let off its soldiers, then it needs to ask Ireland to modify the GFA so that ALL terrorists & murderers, from whichever side, including the security forces, receive immunity.

Better would be criminal trials, so that some truth comes out and victims get closure, then sentences suspended for life unless they commit further serious offences

The offences by the state are too serious just to be covered up, even if the criminals don't actually serve jail time - it is about our need to know, to help stop this happening again

Unfortunately, with Brexit, ireland would likely be very unwilling to reopen the GFA

red That has been the choice for quite some time:
WA vs extension

.... and the extension may not be granted
and might only delay the cliff edge a few weeks - just so May can have one last push to get her WA through

The idea of renegotiating the WA is fantasy - whether from Leavers or Remainers

and the only possible renegotiations for PD would require the UK to drop its FOM & ECJ red lines

• but the backstop would remain as .... a backstop, because Ireland / the EU don't trust us

Of course, if MPs vote for a PV, the EU would almost certainly grant an extension for this^

• but would probably demand EP elections as a condition.

However, to date the HoC is clearly short of a majority for PV

So, WA vs (maybe) Extension

.... or it's automatically No Deal

Why are so many people, both Leavers & Remainers, still in denial about this, with < 4 weeks to go ? 🤔

An extension to pass the WAIB etc, after the WA is passed, would be passed "on the nod" by E27 members.

That would remain the position right to the end,
even though EU opinion has hardened recently wrt extensions for some other purposes

The only problem would be for May to explain it to Leavers

I've had a reply from my MP today. I emailed him about 10 days ago. Basically he said don't worry about the GFA because the WA covers it so there'll be no hard border

Well, the WA would cover it ... but the WA hasn't been passed yet

.... and may never be

Getting nervous, Nigel ? 🤔

^www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2019/mar/01/trump-kushner-news-latest-live-updates-us-politics-today-democrats-republicans?page=with:block-5c79b4eae4b0c5f213665986#block-5c79b4eae4b0c5f213665986^

Nigel Farage has branded Donald Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen a “scumbag” for testifying against the president this week.

Isn't Nige a "person of interest " in the Mueller investigation?

Exactly BigChocFrenzy. Love the way he left that slight issue out!

BigChoc not of any relevance to Brexit but just to say that your average Victorian in a decent-sized city could post a letter in the morning and be quite confident it would be delivered elsewhere in the same city by the afternoon!

Obvs a bit longer if further away and rail transport required, but still pretty speedy (and reliable)

My chimney needs sweeping but these darn EU safety regulations mean I can't grab a small child off the street and shove it up there.